https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Daniel%40dtn.net&feedformat=atomScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]2024-03-28T11:19:55ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.37.0https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=MediaWiki:Sidebar&diff=188205MediaWiki:Sidebar2017-02-05T07:27:49Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>*navigation<br />
** mainpage|Main Page<br />
** https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php/Scenario_Thinking_Portal|Scenario Thinking Portal<br />
** https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php/Driving_Forces|Scenario Driving Forces<br />
** https://www.dtn.net|Digital Thinking Network<br />
** https://www.danielerasmus.com|Daniel Erasmus' Homepage<br />
** helppage|Help</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=E-commerce_in_developing_countries&diff=188202E-commerce in developing countries2013-12-18T06:28:30Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: Protected "E-commerce in developing countries" ([edit=sysop] (indefinite) [move=sysop] (indefinite))</p>
<hr />
<div> <br />
==Description:==<br />
E-commerce (business-to-business:B2B) is widely believed to promise a radical change in the way that companies trade with one another. B2B e-commerce applications are being promoted as tools that will enable companies in developing countries to reduce their costs substantially, thereby easing their access to global markets. The vision of B2B e-commerce is driven by a simple idea. The Internet provides an open global network and access to it is relatively cheap. Internet-based B2B e-commerce should help companies or governments in developing countries obtain better information on global markets and give them direct access to new customers.<br />
However, it is uncertain that e-commerce would reduce or extend the gap between rich and poor countries.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
Factors which strengthen this driving force. <br />
1. Technologies, such as wireless, XML<br />
<br />
2. International aid<br />
<br />
3. Low costs<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
Factors which weaken this driving force. (these are actually other driving forces, and you can link to them in the wiki!)<br />
1. Physical or institutional infrastructure<br />
<br />
2. Low awareness levels of managers or goverment administrators<br />
<br />
3. Culture: the preferences for traditional forms of communication<br />
<br />
4. The difficulties of establishing the quality standards of projects using electronic means of communication<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Old: The power of global buyers, rich countries.<br />
<br />
New: A radical shift in the way in which companies or governments trade with each other. New and cheap access to global markets are available.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Sources for additional information about this driving force. (if you have found people, put the links to them)<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Dates for key milestones in the development of the driving force. <br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
[http://www.gapresearch.org/production/ecommerce.html E-Commerce for Developing Countries: impact, obstacles and polices]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Arjan&diff=188201Arjan2013-04-25T12:22:52Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Object from the Future==<br />
<br />
<br>[[Image:MarineTurbines.jpg]]<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Tidal Power'''<br><br />
The use of offshore underwater turbines using the tides to generate electricity is a relatively new concept of<br>creating clean energy. By using the current generated by the differences in low and high tide the movement of the<br>propeller, similar as a wind turbine, will provide the power necessary for a turbine to generate electricity.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''New''' - The application of the propeller-powered turbine system for underwater purposes offers an entirely new<br>way to create clean energy. Although tidal and wave power applications have been under development for some<br>time the (modular) offshore underwater turbine system offers a relatively inexpensive and efficient solution for <br>clean energy generation.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Replace''' - With the end of the fossil fuels nearing the search for (clean) alternatives continues. Although the<br>above visualised system can only be used in areas with large differences in height between high and low tide<br>(twenty locations worldwide, often deep bays) it can contribute to the replacement of current energy generating<br>facilities.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Change''' - The use of water or the tides to generate electricity is more reliable then the sun and wind, because<br>water movement (especially the tides) is continuous, while the presence of the sun and wind are not. Using these<br>offshore underwater turbines can renew the attention for hydroelectric applications.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Growth''' - Only twenty locations worldwide have been appointed to be able to use the current system. This has<br>directly to do with the necessary difference in height between the high and low tide (several dozens of<br>centimetres). Currently the application of the system is considered in Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Korea,<br>Mexico, the UK, the USA, and Russia. Once the system gets improved it might be applicable in more locations.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Other''' - The system is not yet sophisticated enough to offer a real attractive cost-revenue ratio. Furthermore<br>additional research needs to be done on the reliability of the hardware and its influence on the environment and<br>ecosystem.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''References'''<br><br />
http://www.e-tidevannsenergi.com/index.htm<br><br />
http://www.energieportal.nl/waterkracht/review/energie_uit_water_de_verschillende_soorten_waterkracht.html<br><br />
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_power<br><br><br />
<br />
18-03-06</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Arjan&diff=188200Arjan2013-04-25T12:22:35Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Object from the Future==<br />
<br />
<br>[[Image:MarineTurbines.jpg]]<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Tidal Power'''<br><br />
The use of offshore underwater turbines using the tides to generate electricity is a relatively new concept of<br>creating clean energy. By using the current generated by the differences in low and high tide the movement of the<br>propeller, similar as a wind turbine, will provide the power necessary for a turbine to generate electricity.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''New''' - The application of the propeller-powered turbine system for underwater purposes offers an entirely new<br>way to create clean energy. Although tidal and wave power applications have been under development for some<br>time the (modular) offshore underwater turbine system offers a relatively inexpensive and efficient solution for <br>clean energy generation.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Replace''' - With the end of the fossil fuels nearing the search for (clean) alternatives continues. Although the<br>above visualised system can only be used in areas with large differences in height between high and low tide<br>(twenty locations worldwide, often deep bays) it can contribute to the replacement of current energy generating<br>facilities.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Change''' - The use of water or the tides to generate electricity is more reliable then the sun and wind, because<br>water movement (especially the tides) is continuous, while the presence of the sun and wind are not. Using these<br>offshore underwater turbines can renew the attention for hydroelectric applications.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Growth''' - Only twenty locations worldwide have been appointed to be able to use the current system. This has<br>directly to do with the necessary difference in height between the high and low tide (several dozens of<br>centimetres). Currently the application of the system is considered in Argentina, Australia, Canada, India, Korea,<br>Mexico, the UK, the USA, and Russia. Once the system gets improved it might be applicable in more locations.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''Other''' - The system is not yet sophisticated enough to offer a real attractive cost-revenue ratio. Furthermore<br>additional research needs to be done on the reliability of the hardware and its influence on the environment and<br>ecosystem.<br><br><br />
<br />
'''References'''<br><br />
http://www.e-tidevannsenergi.com/index.htm<br><br />
http://www.energieportal.nl/waterkracht/review/energie_uit_water_de_verschillende_soorten_waterkracht.html<br><br />
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_power<br><br><br />
<br />
Arjan Hannink – 18-03-06</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Global_Labour_Market&diff=188186Global Labour Market2012-05-02T14:21:48Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Increasingly the labour pool and the need for labour has become disjoint between nations. This is to say, supply and demand of labour has become out of balance in different countries. For example, in recent years there has been a surplus of engineering talent in India, and a lack of such talent in the US. As a consequence the US has issued almost a million H1-B immigration visas since 2000. Similar inbalances exist in many parts of the labour market in many countries.<br />
<br />
However, periodically anti-immigration sentiment grows. Politicians and political parties such as Fortuyn, Wilders, Le Pen, Buchanan, Kjærsgaard, Haider, the BNP, etc. fan the anti-immigration flame and advocate tighter controls. Often this stalls economomic growth, stiffles innovation, and destroys entire industries. Businesses have to scramble to meet their labour needs.<br />
<br />
The internet enables an alternative to immigration. It allows greater flexibility in the labour market by connecting remote people and allowing them to collaborate while not in the same place. The needs of the labour market are likely to have a great influence on how the internet develops, just as the internet is likely to have an influence on the future of the labour market.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
1. [[Aging population]], <br />
2. [[Worldwide and higher lifelong education]], <br />
3. Increasing racism in Europe and America, <br />
4. [[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]], <br />
5. [[Low cost of Internet Connections]], <br />
6. [[Increasing Use of e-Commerce]],<br />
<br />
These are actually other driving forces, and you can link to them in the wiki!<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
1. Tradition, <br />
2. Weak infrastructure in some countries, <br />
3. "Office culture"<br />
<br />
(these are actually other driving forces, and you can link to them in the wiki!)<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Old: You work at an office, which is a physical place. If you live in a country without the right jobs you move to one with them.<br><br />
New: You live where you like and where the government will allow you. You work for whichever company offers the right job.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
1992 Buchanan makes first bid for US President on anti-Mexican platform. Shocks country by winning 37% in first primary against incumbant Pres. George Bush Sr. before fading.<br><br />
1994 California Prop 187 denies emergency medical treatment and education to undocumented aliens<br><br />
1996 Buchanan wins first primary for Republican Presidential candidate before again fading<br><br />
2000 H1-B quota raised to 195k/year<br><br />
2000 Haider's Freedom Party joins Austrian government<br><br />
2001 US immigration tightened after Sept. 11<br><br />
2001 Kjærsgaard joins Danish government<br><br />
2002 Fortuyn killed<br><br />
2003 Le Pen finishes second in French elections<br><br />
2004 Bush proposes new "guest worker" programme. Meassure fails to pass in legislature amid anti-Mexican and anti-Arab rhetoric.<br><br />
2004 Attacks on Dutch Mosques, Wilders rises in polls<br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Preventive_health_care_in_The_Netherlands&diff=188182Preventive health care in The Netherlands2011-09-06T06:47:21Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The cost of healthcare is rising so much that the system based on solidarity is in danger. <br />
Preventive healthcare is healthcare focussed on prevention of diseases. There are three levels:<br><br />
* Primairy prevention: The prevention of disease. Healthy food prevents overweight and obesities. Preventive healthcare includes information and education, as also prophylactic regulation, hygiene in food preparation and safety regulation. <br><br />
* Secondary prevention: To detect early signs of deformation or diseases in an early stage. Medical screening of babies and children are forms of secondary prevention. <br><br />
* Tertiary prevention: After a disease occurred several procedures are taken to prevent diseases from returning. Changing lifestyle, eating habits is i.e. prevent a recidive of a heart attack. <br><br><br />
<br />
Collective prevention is focussed on the whole population or on a segment. It is defined in the law on collective prevention and healthcare. <br><br><br />
<br />
Cost of individual prevention should be covered by the health insurance law. Next to the responsibility of the person himself it is also the responsibility of the health providers and health insurers, in the same way they are responsible for providing curative healthcare. <br><br><br />
<br />
In 2003 12,5 billion Euros was spend on prevention. This includes all cost in and outside healthcare. This means increasing the health of the population and welfare, but this also includes garbage removal and placing noise panes. In healthcare itself only 2,6 billion Euros are spend. 83% is spent on health protection, 16% on health increase and 1% on health protection regulation. Medicine to prevent cholesterol and blood pressure, job related prevention and prevention of psychological diseases are accountable to healthcare increase, it is not known which part is spent on prevention, healthcare protection (risk evaluation) and healthcare increase (training in use of technical assistance) The costs are increasing with increasing age due to population screening and use of cholesterol and blood pressure decreases. <br><br><br />
<br />
Almost 1,6% of the whole budget for healthcare is labelled for ‘Prevention and Healthcare’. A lot of these expenses like programs to activate people are financed outside healthcare. There is a shift from financing prevention by the finance department to the healthcare department. <br><br />
20000 – 80000 Euro per “won” year to live, corrected for quality of life (QALY) is the variable threshold to determine when to intervent with a prevention program/ activity. The Council sets this rule for Public Health and Health Care (RVZ). <br><br />
Health insurance companies are new stakeholders in prevention. Cost of care will decrease when more is spent on prevention. Some preventive intervention is defined in the basic health insurance, which is equal for all Dutch citizens. Secondly, people can choose to insure other forms of prevention themselves, in the added insurance policy. And in the third place there are prevention activities of insurance companies that are provided outside the insurance policies. <br><br><br />
<br />
A lot of unhealthy life habits are important risk factors, for example cardiac diseases, chronically pulmonary diseases and diabetes. Integrated care for diabetes including interventions on increasing activity and losing weight. Complications are prevented or delayed. <br><br><br />
<br />
Another example is the development and evaluation of exercise interventions in COPD patients. Physical exercise in combination with the medical treatment gives better outcomes of medical results and quality of life. <br><br><br />
<br />
For prevention of chronically disease risk profiling and prevention strategies are promising tools. <br><br><br />
<br />
In 2006 five focus areas are defined smoking, overweight, alcohol, depression and diabetes. More than 50% of all premiums paid is to: cure diabetes type 2, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure and forms of cancer caused by smoking, alcohol, overweight, unhealthy food, limited activity or combinations of those. Only a fraction is spent on prevention. <br><br><br />
<br />
“Human resource” protection (human capital) is seen as an important social function of healthcare. A lot is gained focusing more on prevention than on curing. <br><br><br />
<br />
==Enabler:==<br />
*Integral health programs <br><br />
*Finance interventions supporting prevention and chain care<br><br />
*Quality of the prevention programs<br><br />
*Prevention in the media<br><br />
*Self tests<br><br />
*Openness of people to doctors<br><br />
*Focus on safety in i.e. manufacturing<br><br />
*More providers of preventive care<br><br />
*More awareness in education for prevention<br><br />
*Empowerment of the individual for prevention<br><br />
*Self-management<br><br />
*IT-support systems<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibator:==<br />
*Strict finance regulations<br><br />
*Dispersed budgets over different departments<br><br />
*Limitation of budget<br><br />
*No urgency felt<br><br />
*Urbanisation<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Prevention can be seen as an investment, like innovation. It could lower the cost of healthcare a lot in the short run and long run. And will increase the quality of life. <br><br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
*Healthcare providers<br><br />
*The government, the departments of the ministry of health, welfare and sports, <br><br />
*The city councils, <br><br />
*The public health department of the city (GGD), <br><br />
*Health insurance companies<br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
The sooner the better; to reduce cost in crisis time and to prevent more people (human capital) drift into unhealthy lifestyles leading to more diseases and cost. <br><br />
<br />
==Web resources:==<br />
www.RIVM.nl<br><br />
www.ZN<br><br />
www.vws.nl<br><br />
www.cpb.nl<br><br />
www.cbs.nl<br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Number_of_visitors_in_Amsterdam&diff=188181Number of visitors in Amsterdam2011-09-06T06:46:46Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Description ==<br />
In 2007 Amsterdam had almost 5 million visitors. This number increases every year. This number is excluding expats. A amount that large will have impact on the health care supply. <br><br />
[[Image:bezoekers_Amsterdam.gif|200px]]<br><br><br />
Enablers<br />
Cheaper to travels makes it easier to visit Amsterdam (especially from closer ‘rich’ countries). <br />
<br />
‘Free’ spirit of Amsterdam attracts a lot of young tourists<br />
<br />
<br />
Top museums make Amsterdam attractive to also ‘elderly’ people<br />
<br><br />
[[Image:bezoekredenen_amsterdam.gif|200px]]<br><br />
(More) Cleaner city<br />
<br />
Gay friendly environment<br />
<br />
<br />
Inhibitors<br />
Drugs and red light regulations (less attractive for young visitors)<br />
(More) expensive<br />
The negative press (o.a. various shootings on e.g. Pim Fortuin) gave Amsterdam a bad press<br />
<br />
==Paradigms: ==<br />
To be done<br />
<br />
== Experts: ==<br />
Office of Research and Statistics (http://www.os.amsterdam.nl/)<br />
Tourists Office of Amsterdam<br />
<br />
== Timing: ==<br />
To be done</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Piracy&diff=188180Piracy2011-09-06T06:46:07Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Maritime piracy, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982, consists of any criminal acts of violence, detention, or depredation committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or aircraft that is directed on the high seas against another ship, aircraft, or against persons or property on board a ship or aircraft. Piracy can also be committed against a ship, aircraft, persons, or property in a place outside the jurisdiction of any state, in fact piracy has been the first example of universal jurisdiction. <br />
Recently, piracy has increased dramatically across the Gulf of Eden. Piracy, a societal development, has become a threat to the safety of vessels and its personnel. <br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
#Poverty and economic disparities<br />
#Increase of poverty gap<br />
#Political instability<br />
#The oil price<br />
#The financial crisis<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
#Maritime Transportation security<br />
#Safety precautions<br />
#Diplomatic forces<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
<br />
Shipping used to be a fairly safe mode of travel and transportation. After the terrorist attacks on WTC, security regulations have increased, but at the same time in certain regions, piracy has risen dramatically in the Somalia region.<br />
Old: shipping is a safe mode of travel and transport<br />
New: Shipping potentially is an unsafe mode of transport<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
#Security experts<br />
#Diplomats<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
As of 2008, piracy emerged and caused international transportation vessels to increase safety measures and/or to take alternative routes<br />
<br />
==Web resources:==<br />
<br />
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piracy<br />
http:imo.org/facilitation/mainframe.asp?topic_id=362<br />
http://www.hcss.nl/en/column/672/Turbulent-Waters-in-a-Maritime-Black-Hole-.html</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Young_Generation_in_South_Korea&diff=188179Young Generation in South Korea2011-09-06T06:45:15Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Description ==<br />
Young Generation means between 17 and 19 years old who has very sensitive feelings. <br />
Also they create new life style which does not have any relations with traditional values.<br />
Contrary to the parents generation, they have individualism,sensitive thinking, egoism,<br />
Open views to the others.<br />
<br />
== Enablers ==<br />
-. Stable income<br />
<br />
-. Enough time to enjoy their life<br />
<br />
-. Focusing on the use value not possession value<br />
<br />
-. Pursuing a new type of life - not so eager to overcome hardship<br />
<br />
== Inhibitors ==<br />
-. Increasing the jobless-rate in advanced country.<br />
<br />
-. Because of their strong character they might not work as a group<br />
<br />
-.They have to assist and support their parents generation.<br />
<br />
-.Low ratio of male against female<br />
<br />
== Paradigms ==<br />
-. Before : they were treated as a student or children, do not have enough money to buy and can not decide by themselves<br />
<br />
-. Now : because of the low birth rate, they were grown as a treasure in the family and influenced IT and computer technology. They would like to decide by themselves.<br />
<br />
== Experts ==<br />
-. Samsung economic research<br />
<br />
-. Korean juvenile research<br />
<br />
== Timing ==<br />
<br />
<br />
== Web Resources ==<br />
-. http://www.seri.org</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=World_population_growth&diff=188178World population growth2011-09-06T06:44:38Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Description==<br />
<br />
By Mihai Andreoiu<br />
<br />
The world population has grown tremendously over the past one thousand years. In 1999, the world population passed the six billion mark.<br />
Latest official current world population estimate, for mid-year 2009, is estimated at 6,790,062,216.<br />
<br />
[[Image:worldpopgr.gif]]<br />
<br />
source: http://www.susps.org<br />
<br />
[[Image:World-Population-Growth-2050.jpg]]<br />
<br />
source: http://www.treehugger.com<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
<br />
- Poverty has always been a strong enabler for families especially in rural areas to have extra cheap labor force. As the economic unit was the family and life gravitated around work and survival of the family in adverse conditions more children simply meant more production resources and insurance against premature death as poverty also prevented access to medicine or doctors. In current times poverty still prevents in many countries access to birth control or family planning means. <br />
<br />
- Religion has always been and still is in many countries a significant enabler of population growth. “Children are God’s gift”, no more and no less. The Catholic Church, for instance, considers a mortal sin any deliberate act of contraception. <br />
<br />
- Medical progress. As medicine developed as science and population gained access to continuosly improving medication and doctors mankind started winning the battle against nature which meant a longer life expectancy. With the same level of birth but increased life expectancy population can only grow.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
<br />
- Education. As population became more educated the awareness that the resources of our planet are finite spreads so people realize that current population growth rates are not sustainable.<br />
<br />
- Prosperity. Children are no longer mainly seen as resources only. Some parents consider that they can only give proper attention and affection to a smaller family rather than a larger family as leisure time increases. Wealthier families have on average less kids than poor families.<br />
<br />
- Authoritarian regimes i.e. China where families by law can only have one child.<br />
<br />
- Pandemics.<br />
<br />
- Wars or genocides i.e. Rwanda.<br />
<br />
- Catastrophies.<br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
<br />
- Old paradigm: Spread and multiply. <br />
<br />
- New paradigm: Earth resources are finite, therefore population cannot grow forever (unless we discover other resources within reach).<br />
<br />
<br />
==Experts==<br />
<br />
*William Stanton. The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000: Histories, Consequences, Issues, Nation by Nation. William. NI: Multiscience Publishing Company Ltd. 2003.<br />
*[http://www.grida.no GRID-Arendal]<br />
*[http://www.unep.org UNEP]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population Wikipedia]<br />
*[http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/dhm_archive/index.php?display_article=vn126manupured Poverty causes Population Growth causes Poverty]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Wireless_is_better_than_wire&diff=188177Wireless is better than wire2011-09-06T06:44:10Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
We often hear and maybe, we have got the experience that broken wire can cause electrical shocks to human. This electrical shock problems can even cause death if the amperage of the electricty is high and/or we touch that broken wire for a long time. It may happen since 70% of our body is water and electricity can flow through water almost as well as through the wire.<br />
Besides, we often feels annoyed by the wire since we cannot move smoothly bringing devices with wire as well as we may fall when there is a wire laying on the floor and we do not realize it.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* The advance techology of wireless<br />
* [[The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates]]<br />
* [[Cost of Setting up a Wi-Fi Network]]<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* The bad effect of the radiation from wireless devices to our health<br />
* Increasing Competition from other wireless technologies<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
* People like to move anywhere without limitation from wire<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
* http://www.rp-l.com/electricsafety.htm<br />
* http://www.tva.gov/power/homesafety.htm<br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Societal_Driving_Forces >>BACK>>]: To Societal Driving Forces</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Virtual_Integration&diff=188176Virtual Integration2011-09-06T06:43:40Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
'''Virtual Integration''' involves linking different applications, databases, and locally and globally distributed systems in such a way that they work together seamlessly and are easily accessible from a user's perspective. It is the integration through the whole value chain made up of loose affiliations of companies, organised as a network, where physical assets are replaced by information. <br><br />
<br />
This is the driving force for GRID, since the core concept of GRID is ''to seamless integrate geographically distributed computers,databases, instruments''. It is able to provide a technical platform to perform Virtual Integration.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* ''ever more demanding customer requirements'': not only concerned with reduced costs and shorter lead times, but also increasingly focused on requirements for product and service offerings tailored to an individual customer’s requirements. <br><br />
* ''ever increasing competition'': not only because of easier market entry, enabling new entrants to steal significant market share at the expense of unresponsive existing suppliers, but also because e-business now gives opportunities for customers and suppliers to bypass traditional supply chain structures.<br> <br />
* ''ever increasing volumes and velocity of information'': the requirement to gather, process and act on massively increasing volumes of information in a rapid and intelligent manner.<br><br />
* ''Fast development of Internet and the Worldwide Web techonology'': The Internet has provided the universal pipeline for distributing information anywhere. The Worldwide Web has provided a new universal browser that allows information to be displayed on any client platform. The Internet and the web, enabled by global standards for protocols and application development languages, have provided a new universal architecture that simplifies the distribution of information. <br />
* [[Network Bandwidth ]]<br><br />
* [[Increasing Use of e-Commerce]] <br />
* [[Business Process Reengineering]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* ''External Barriers'': most organisations currently exist as islands of information. More often than not, information is used as a tactical competitive weapon against suppliers, with the result that the whole supply chain operates at a sub-optimal level of efficiency. <br />
* ''Internal Barriers'': <br />
** Cultural Resistance: Despite all the work on business process re-engineering during the last ten years, most companies continue to be organised in functional silos.It is still all too common for functions to be measured against a set of stand-alone performance metrics that encourage adversarial behaviour across the internal functional boundaries.<br />
** Lagacy Systems: On the technological sight, different functional units maintain a mix of platform environments:both package and legacy applications. Many also operate embedded process control applications that are incapable of integration with higher level transactional processing systems. <br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Through ''virtual integration'', people/companies are no longer restrained to stay/come to in one physical place to do business: the corporate department can be dispersed anywhere in the world as long as it is best for fulfilling its duties; Institutions from different part of the world(suppliers and customers) work seemlessly as a whole to carry out huge tasks too large, too complicated for the capability of either side; Information scattered around the world is readily available in diversed viewpoints for different users of the integrated system. It allows company to exploit the new channels and leverage increased geographic access better than their existing competition and the new market entrants. The '''key''' to success is now about efficient management not only of the physical flows but also the '''''information flows'''''. <br><br />
<br><br />
An example of this paradigm is what has happened in the automotive sector. Today the vision for most automotive vehicle manufacturers is to become '''''virtual companies''''', owning only the brand and the customer. The design, system development, product sourcing, logistics, and even final assembly can all be outsourced to supply chain partners. Increasingly the goal is to replace physical assets with information in such a way that every member of this extended supply chain benefits. This forces the move from an environment of ‘hard wired integration’, where relationships are arms-length and adversarial, even across functional boundaries within the organisation, to an environment based on 'negotiated sourcing', where non-core activities are outsourced and collaborative partnerships are the norm.<br> <br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Dell Corp.<br><br />
Cisco Systems, Inc <br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Historically, the trend among companies in the manufacturing sector has been to do everything in-house, to be "vertically integrated". This model is being challenged, driven largely by the need for economies of scale and greater asset utilisation, and the need to be on-time in the market with products. This need has created specialized companies across various horizontal layers. The Internet is helping tie-in these companies into closer companies, to create "virtually integrated" companies.<br />
<br />
It is this virtual integration across the supply chain which helps companies like Dell and Cisco outsource much of their manufacturing, and focus primarily on design and marketing. And this business model has spawned a relatively new industry called Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS). EMS companies offer a vast array of products and services to accelerate time to market and time to volume for a broad range of OEMs. In doing so, EMS companies allow OEMs to reduce total costs, increase cash flow, conserve capital and focus on their own core competencies such as product design and marketing.<br />
<br />
Moreover,the Internet has cut geographical barriers to do business, and with supply chain management and optimization software made virtual integration easier. <br />
<br />
Thanks to virtual integration, closed business systems are giving way to collaborative relationships. B2B ecommerce is not just about finding the cheapest supplier halfway across the world; it is about using technology to build trust with suppliers, and deepening relationships with these trusted parties.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:== <br />
http://www.paconsulting.com/news/by_pa/2000/by_pa_20000321.htm<br><br />
http://portal.cetim.org/file/1/68/KatzySchuh-1999-The_virtual_enterprise.pdf<br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Globalization_of_Culture_(or_Cultural_Globalization)&diff=188175The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)2011-09-06T06:42:49Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
<br />
Globalization refers to the rapidly developing and ever densening network of interconnections and interdependencies that characterize modern social life [http://scholar.google.nl/scholar?hl=nl&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=ZKs&q=author:%22Tomlinson%22+intitle:%22Globalization+and+culture%22+&um=1&ie=UTF-8&oi=scholarr]. One implication is that people, and also cultures, are being drawn together. Culture is defined as patterns of human activity and the symbols that give these activities significance [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization]. Culture is what people eat, how they dress, beliefs they hold, and activities they practice. Globalization has joined different cultures and made it into something different. One classic culture aspect is food. Due to cultural globalization, Americans can be eating Japanese noodles, Australians classic Italian meatballs, Europeans Indian curry, and Asians burgers and fries. McDonalds, an American company which is now a global enterprise with 31,000 locations worldwide is just one example of food going big on the global scale. Another example of cultural globalization is meditation. Originally a sacred practice for centuries in Indian culture it is now also a common activity in the Western world. <br />
<br />
The internet breaks down cultural boundaries across the world by enabling easy, near-instantaneous communication between people anywhere in a variety of digital forms and media. The Internet is associated with the process of cultural globalization because it allows interaction and communication between people with very different lifestyles and from very different cultures. Photo sharing websites allow interaction even where language would otherwise be a barrier[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization].<br />
<br />
Some people think cultural globalization will lead to a single global culture. However, this process is considered to be uneven: the Western world, and especially America, dominates the global culture. The dominant cultural perspective of globalization today is the fear that globalization will bring uniformity and not unity. Western (American) brands like Coca-Cola, Walt Disney and Microsoft might totally dominate global culture at the cost of non-western cultural traditions [http://scholar.google.nl/scholar?hl=nl&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=ZKs&q=author:%22Tomlinson%22+intitle:%22Globalization+and+culture%22+&um=1&ie=UTF-8&oi=scholarr]. In the last 50 years the US culture has dominated much of the global electronic culture (films, tv). This resulted in a huge impact of the American lifestyle and personal value system on cultures that are both remote from the US geographically and culturally. Consuming the products of this industry results in a consistent change of the indigenous culture’s values, affecting its language, its social structure and even its appearance (from clothes and cars to billboards and advertisements). <br />
<br />
<br />
According to [http://portal.unesco.org/culture/en/ev.php-URL_ID=11605&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html Unesco], globalization may be either positive or negative, depending on our viewpoint. Nonetheless, culture in general, and cultural diversity in particular, is facing 3 challenges: <br />
<br />
1) Globalization, in its powerful extension of market principles, by highlighting the culture of economically powerful nations, has created new forms of inequality, thereby fostering cultural conflict rather than cultural pluralism. <br />
<br />
2) States are increasingly unable to handle on their own the cross-border flow of ideas, images and resources that affect cultural development.<br />
<br />
3) The growing divide in literacy (digital and conventional) have made the cultural debates and resources an increasingly élitist monopoly, divorced from the capabilities and interests of more than half the world’s population who are now in danger of cultural and economical exclusion. <br />
<br />
<br />
To illustrate the current state of cultural diversity, [http://portal.unesco.org/culture/en/ev.php-URL_ID=11605&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html Unesco] mentions the following numbers:<br />
<br />
- The approximately 6000 languages that exist in the world do not all have the same number of speakers: only 4 % of the languages are used by 96 % of the world population.<br />
<br />
- 50 % of the world languages are in danger of extinction.<br />
<br />
- 90 % of the world’s languages are not represented on the Internet.<br />
<br />
- Some 5 countries monopolize the world cultural industries trade. In the field of cinema, for instance, 88 countries out of 185 in the world have never had their own film production.<br />
<br />
== Enablers ==<br />
<br />
*Modern transportation and communication techniques enable quick and easy interaction between countries and cultures <br />
<br />
*Promotion of free trade<br />
<br />
*Loosening of old traditions and cultural structures<br />
<br />
*Power of big companies<br />
<br />
*Increased wealth enables people to buy (western) goods<br />
<br />
*Literacy<br />
<br />
*Growing adaptation of english terms: a growing number of languages used around the world is adopting more and more English terms instead of using their own words to describe words that originate in the US.<br />
<br />
*High costs for complete local programming<br />
<br />
*Internet advertising and information<br />
<br />
*Advertising of imported products<br />
<br />
*Content of TV/films/music that perpetuates further consumption of US products and brands<br />
<br />
*Acceptance of cheap entertainment from the US for syndication<br />
<br />
*Satellite TV<br />
<br />
== Inhibitors ==<br />
*Support of indigenous culture by local governments and NGOs<br />
<br />
*Anti-globalists movements<br />
<br />
*Creating local brands that celebrate locality instead of globalization<br />
<br />
*Subsidizing local brands, increase price of global brands<br />
<br />
*Education<br />
<br />
*Localized programming<br />
<br />
*Limiting syndicated programming<br />
<br />
== Paradigms ==<br />
1. Globalization is not a process based on equality. In fact, the Western (American) world dominates the global culture<br />
<br />
2. The US creates the entertainment products, sells them abroad, and they perpetuate US-based model for a society. Individuals are self-brainwashed by these to accept this model and further consume that culture’s products.<br />
<br />
== Experts ==<br />
*Anthropologists<br />
<br />
*Unesco<br />
<br />
== Timing ==<br />
Sources: [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization Wikipedia] and [http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~dludden/global1.htm A quick guide to the world's history of globalization]<br />
*1st centuries CE: an early form of globalization can be seen in the trade links between the Roman Empire, the Parthian empire, and the Han Dynasty. The increasing articulation of commercial links between these powers inspired the development of the Silk Road, which started in western China, reached the boundaries of the Parthian empire, and continued onwards towards Rome<br />
<br />
*650-850: the expansion of Islam from the western Mediterranean to India. Globally significant crops such as sugar and cotton became widely cultivated across the Muslim world in this period, while the necessity of learning Arabic and completing the Hajj created a cosmopolitan culture.<br />
<br />
*960-1279: the Song Dynasty in China (and contemporary regimes in India) which produced the economic output, instruments (financial), technologies, and impetus for the medieval world economy that linked Europe and China by land and sea across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean.<br />
<br />
*1100: The Rise of Genghis Khan and the integration of overland routes across Eurasia -- producing also a military revolution in technologies of war on horseback and of fighting from military fortifications.<br />
<br />
*1300: the creation of the Ottoman Empire spanning Europe, North Africa, and Middle East, and connected politically overland with Safavids and dynasties in Central Asia and India -- creating the great imperial arch of integration that spawned a huge expansion of trade with Europe but ALSO raised the cost for trade in Asia for Europeans ---<br />
<br />
*1492 and 1498: Columbus and da Gama travel west and east to the Indies, inaugurating an age of European seaborne empires.<br />
<br />
*1650: the expansion of the slave trade gave birth to integrated economic/industrial systems across the Ocean<br />
<br />
*1776/1789: US and French Revolutions mark the creation of modern state form based on alliances between military and business interests and on popular representation in aggressively nationalist governments. Imperial expansion under Napolean and in the Americas. The economic interests of "the people" and the drive to acquire and consolidate assets for economic growth also lead to more militarized British, Dutch, and French imperial growth in Asia. <br />
<br />
*1885: Treaties of Berlin mark a diplomatic watershed in the age modern imperial expansion by European and American overseas empires, beginning the age of "high imperialism" with the legalization of the Partition of Africa, which also marks a foundation-point for the creation of international law. In the last decades of the 19th century, the global "white man's burden" became a subject of discussion.<br />
<br />
*1929: the great depression hits all parts of the world at the same time Preceded by first event called World War and followed by first really global war across Atlantic and Pacific.<br />
<br />
*1950: decolonization of European empires in Asia and Africa produces world of national states for the first time and world of legal-representative-economic institutions in the UN system and Bretton Woods.<br />
<br />
*20th century: globalization in the middle decades of the twentieth century was largely driven by the global expansion of multinational corporations based in the United States and the worldwide export of American culture through the new media of film, television and recorded music. Progress in communication and transport technology has enabled us to overcome geographical boundaries and revolutionize our way of living. <br />
<br />
*1989: the end of the cold war and globalization of post-industrial capitalism appears to be eroding the power of the national states.<br />
<br />
*In late 2000s, much of the industrialized world entered into a deep recession. Some analysts say the world is going through a period of deglobalization after years of increasing economic integration. Up to 45% of global wealth had been destroyed by the global financial crisis in little less than a year and a half.<br />
<br />
*In 2010 various programming agencies get together to formulate alternatives to US entertainment. By 2015 90% of the programming around the world is expected to be originating from the US.<br />
<br />
== Web Resources ==<br />
1. [http://cpim.org/marxist/200002_marxist_culture_ss.htm Globalization of Culture - to what End?] A "Marxisit" (i.e. critical) View of the problem<br />
<br />
2. [http://www.iipa.com/memberassociations.html The International Intellectual Property Alliance (IIPA)] is a private sector coalition formed in 1984 to represent the U.S. copyright-based industries in bilateral and multilateral efforts to improve international protection of copyrighted materials.<br />
<br />
3. [http://portal.unesco.org/culture/en/ev.php-URL_ID=11605&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html To see UNESCO’s view on the subject]<br />
<br />
4. [http://www.nativeweb.org/resources/languages_linguistics/indigenous_languages About Indigenous languages under threat]<br />
<br />
5. [http://scholar.google.nl/scholar?hl=nl&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=ZKs&q=author:%22Tomlinson%22+intitle:%22Globalization+and+culture%22+&um=1&ie=UTF-8&oi=scholarr Academic paper by John Thomlinson] discussing views on cultural globalization<br />
<br />
6. [http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~dludden/global1.htm A quick guide to the world's history of globalization]<br />
<br />
7. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization Globalization on Wikipedia]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Power_of_Information-anywhere,_everywhere&diff=188174Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere2011-09-06T06:41:39Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Description:==<br />
<br />
In todays digital world people and organizations are striving for the need of information all the time to improve their business performance and to stay connected at all times. In U.S. alone there are 36 million business travelers, 27 million of whom carry laptops and have the need to have important information while traveling. Nowadays with extreme competition and mature markets companies can really benefit from critical information at the right time to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Wi-Fi is an answer to this requirement as it is not bound by the limitations of wires. Imagine a sales person being able to access the company intranet from the customer site to make a proposal , look up for key information from the database etc. The CEO gives important inputs for a multi billion dollar contract to his staff while on the airplane.Wi-Fi enables to access large databases, download huge files and videos and access email instantly. The seamless availability of information can streamline business processes of a company, improve the responsiveness towards customers and suppliers and companies overall become more efficient.<br />
<br />
In the fast changing world with increased competition people need information all the time. When they are travelling, when they are driving, when they are at home , when they are on a vacation , when they are in the airlines, or trains or restaurants they need information everytime. The power of Wi-Fi can make this possible by providing access to the internet anywhere and everywhere. Firms and corporations who can provide these facilities to their employees, customers and suppliers will have an upper hand as compared to their competitors.<br />
<br />
Even in the simplest usage at home, imagine accessing the internet from a fixed location and imagine accessing the emails from anywhere in the house, sitting on the sofa or the living room or the kitchen without any wires and different connections. This is the power of Wi-Fi which can help to access information from anywhere without the inconvenience of wiring the entire location.<br />
<br />
For business travelers hot spots have been placed at hotels, airports, train stations and cafes to help them access critical information everytime. But companies like Boingo and Vivato are making internet access for larger areas and complete cities. As stated by CEO of vivato, Ken Biba that "You'd need just 30 to 50 Vivato switches to turn all of Dartmouth into a hot spot. And it may go further than that". This shows that the critical information required by the people will be available anywhere and everywhere by the Wi-Fi networks.<br />
<br />
Information not ony in the form of data from the internet access everywhere made available by Wi-Fi but also by taking to each other from all locations over the Wi-Fi network is possible. Cellular comapnies will integrate the mobiles with Wi-Fi and thus people can talk to each other and share information over the Wi-Fi Network.<br />
<br />
== Enablers:==<br />
<br />
* The Wi-Fi technlogy itself<br />
* Increased global competition<br />
* The ease of setting up a Wi-Fi network <br />
* The increased use of Internet and its benefits<br />
* The globalization of companies and the increased traveling of people to other countries to meet customers , suppliers and employees<br />
* Improved Customer Satisfaction<br />
* Decreased costs of operation and improved Return On Investment<br />
* [[Cost of Setting up a Wi-Fi Network]]<br />
* Improved productivity<br />
* [[The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates]]<br />
* [[Voice over Wi-Fi (Vo-Wi-Fi) will be released]]<br />
* [[Need for Information On Demand]]<br />
* Increasing Mobility<br />
* [[Wireless is better than wire]]<br />
<br />
== Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
* The security of the critical information-threat of hacking information<br />
* The cost of Setting up a complete Wi-Fi enabled world<br />
* Reliabiity in terms of the coverage area <br />
* Interference with other equipments and frequencies- For example in Airplanes<br />
* Uninterrupted connection across diffeent regions<br />
* Integration with existing networks and euipments<br />
* Performance of the network<br />
* [[Increasing social isolation]]<br />
* [[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
<br />
== Paradigms: ==<br />
<br />
Th rate at which the Wi-Fi hot spots and wi-Fi users are growing shows the power and importance of information required by the users. According to Gartner the number of users using Wi-Fi will reach 99 million by 2006 and further increase. "In a conservative estimate, ABI, a technology think tank in Oyster Bay, N.Y., predicts worldwide hotspots will grow in the next five years from 28,500 to 208,000". It is a matter of time when companies like Boingo, Cometa and others will provide Wi-Fi access in the whole city and also across different cities with some kind of roaming arrangement between them as it is within the cellular industry at this moment.<br />
<br />
== Experts: ==<br />
<br />
*Wi-Fi and the future of wireless by Gregory M. Lamb-staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor<br />
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0105/p13s02-wmgn.html<br />
<br />
* The Wi-Fi Revolution by Chris Anderson<br />
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.05/unwired/wifirevolution.html<br />
<br />
== Timing:==<br />
<br />
* In 1997, the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) drafted the 802.11 standard for wireless local area networking. <br />
<br />
* In 1999, the 802.11b standard was drafted and accepted by the networking industry, and products for wireless networking over the 2.4GHz frequency began being produced<br />
<br />
* Between 1995-2005 the number of Hot Spots that have grown from around 28000 to over 200,000 approximately<br />
<br />
* By 2005 number of people using Wi-Fi would be around 80 Million<br />
<br />
* Between 2002-2005 companies like Boingo have set up roaming agreements with other Wi-Fi service providers to provide uninterrupted Wi-fi across different cities.<br />
<br />
== Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
* http://www.fiercewireless.com/topics/wifi.asp <br />
<br />
* http://www.wi-fi.org/OpenSection/articles.asp?TID=5<br />
<br />
* http://www.bitpipe.com/rlist/term/Wi-Fi.html<br />
<br />
* http://www.boingo.com/wi-fi_industry_basics_2.html<br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_WiFi >>BACK>>]: To The Future of WiFi</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Liberalization_of_the_health_care_market&diff=188173Liberalization of the health care market2011-09-06T06:40:26Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Due to developments in society (ageing population, increased consumerism) and medical technology there will stay an upwards pressure to health care expenditures. Government will keep the responsibility for accessibility, quality and affordability of health care for all citizens, but it defines this role more facilitating. Liberalization means less government involvement in the health care market. In tyhe health care market one can distinguish 4 sub-markets. First, the health care procurement market in the Netherlands is defined as the market between sellers (hospitals) and buyers (mostly insurers, but in the future maybe also employer and individuals). Second, the insurance is defined as the market between insurance companies and individuals or collectives who want to buy an insurance.<br />
<p></p><br />
Liberalization will lead to all kinds of new health organization models, like Health Maintenance Organizations (cooperation between insurance and hospital, e.g. USA), hospital-nursing homes combinations, but also listed hospitals. As from 2012 it will be possible for hospitals to make a profit.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
o The increase of health care cost will urge the government to introduce more efficient, market oriented systems. The current Dutch government adagio is “market where possible, and only intervene when necessary <br><br />
o In the current budget system all capital expenditures are separately funded and guaranteed by government. As from 2012 hospitals will be fully responsible for their income and production (WTZi).<br><br />
o The new hospital financing system (DBC’s) makes differences between hospitals in price and quality visible. By that competition between hospitals will increase<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
o The evolution of the current parliamentary democracy. Will the Dutch parliament be able to let loose, or will it intervene as it does now. Although formally the parties have agreed upon liberalization, the first signs of second thoughts within Dutch parliament are very clear<br><br />
o The convergence of European health care market systems. Will the EU formulate a policy on health care market systems? So far, the EU has only intervened in food security, labor market and border crossing health care consumption. <br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
The fundamental shift in thinking is the transformation from a regulated system, like in most other European countries to a much more market oriented system in which government has much less control and market forces will drive development.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Ministry of health (www.minvws.nl), College Bouw (www.cbz.nl), ZAio (www.ctg-zaio.nl)<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Start new insurance system (zorgverzekeringswet) 1-1-2006 <br><br />
Start new hospital financing system (DBC’s) 1-1-2005, finish 1-1-2008 <br><br />
Start liberalization construction of hospitals (WTZi) 1-1-2006, finish 2012 <br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
[http://www.minvws.nl www.minvws.nl] <br><br />
[http://www.zorgaanzet.nl www.zorgaanzet.nl] <br><br />
[http://www.cbz.nl www.cbz.nl]<br><br />
[http://www.ctg-zaio.nl www.ctg-zaio.nl ] <br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Liberalization_of_the_Dutch_health_care_market&diff=188172Liberalization of the Dutch health care market2011-09-06T06:39:49Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Due to developments in society (ageing population, increased consumerism) and medical technology there will stay an upwards pressure to health care expenditures. Government will keep the responsibility for accessibility, quality and affordability of health care for all citizens, but it defines this role more facilitating. Liberalization means less government involvement in the health care market. In the health care market one can distinguish 4 sub-markets. First, the health care procurement market in the Netherlands is defined as the market between sellers (hospitals) and buyers (mostly insurers, but in the future maybe also employer and individuals). Second, the insurance is defined as the market between insurance companies and individuals or collectives who want to buy an insurance.<br />
<p></p><br />
Liberalization will lead to all kinds of new health organization models, like Health Maintenance Organizations (cooperation between insurance and hospital, e.g. USA), hospital-nursing homes combinations, but also listed hospitals. As from 2012 it will be possible for hospitals to make a profit.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
o The increase of health care cost will urge the government to introduce more efficient, market oriented systems. The current Dutch government adagio is “market where possible, and only intervene when necessary <br><br />
o In the current budget system all capital expenditures are separately funded and guaranteed by government. As from 2012 hospitals will be fully responsible for their income and production (WTZi).<br><br />
o The new hospital financing system (DBC’s) makes differences between hospitals in price and quality visible. By that competition between hospitals will increase<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
o The evolution of the current parliamentary democracy. Will the Dutch parliament be able to let loose, or will it intervene as it does now. <br><br />
o The convergence of European health care market systems. Will the EU formulate a policy on health care market systems? So far, the EU has only intervened in food security, labor market and border crossing health care consumption. <br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
The fundamental shift in thinking is the transformation from a regulated system, like in most other European countries to a much more market oriented system in which government has much less control and market forces will drive development.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Ministry of health (www.minvws.nl), College Bouw (www.cbz.nl), ZAio (www.ctg-zaio.nl)<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Start new insurance system (zorgverzekeringswet) 1-1-2006 <br><br />
Start new hospital financing system (DBC’s) 1-1-2005, finish 1-1-2008 <br><br />
Start liberalization construction of hospitals (WTZi) 1-1-2006, finish 2012 <br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
www.minvwsnl <br><br />
www.zorgaanzet.nl <br><br />
www.cbz.nl <br><br />
www.ctg-zaio.nl <br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Information_overload&diff=188171Information overload2011-09-06T06:38:32Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Advertising Back to homepage]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Description==<br />
"Information overload refers to the state of having too much information to make a decision or remain informed about a topic." (Wikipedia) "Effects of too much information include anxiety, poor decision-making, difficulties in memorizing and remembering and a reduced attention span." ([2])<br />
Large amounts of currently available information, a high rate of new information being added/changed, contradictions in available information and inefficient methods for comparing and processing information all contribute to information overload.<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
*Large amount of information available: the internet, mobile telephones, broadband connections, e-books, spam, e-mail and other communication media et cetera. (Thus, information overload is strongly enabled by technological advances.)<br />
*High rate of change: adding and adjusting information is easier than ever, resulting in even more loss of control for the end user. <br />
*Signal-to-noise-ratio: the proportion of useful information (which really fullfil your information need) in all available information diminishes.<br />
*Inefficient information tools: thousands of information sources, information often contradicts other information and so on, makes it very complicated for users. <br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
*More efficient information tools: portals, price comparing websites, better search engines et cetera do have substantial value for users of information (i.e. consumers).<br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
*Information overload is a feel. It gives people the feel of loosing control.<br />
*Since information overload is psychological, it differs from person to person.<br />
*People tend to think: information is good, the more information I get, the better the decisions I take will be.<br />
*The overload might result in resistance to take and process even more information ([1]).<br />
*Much information nowadays answer questions which aren't asked yet ([1]).<br />
<br />
==Experts==<br />
Not relevant.<br />
<br />
==Timing==<br />
Started to grow exponentially after WW2; parallel to advances in information and communication technology. This trend will continue, however, there also will be advances (e.g. better search engines, specialized web portals, content managers) which will - at least partially - give back control to the users of information.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources==<br />
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_overload<br />
*http://users.fmg.uva.nl/welving/Information-overload.ppt [1]<br />
*http://www.w-uh.com/articles/030308-tyranny_of_email.html<br />
*http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/CHINNEG.html [2]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_social_isolation&diff=188170Increasing social isolation2011-09-06T06:37:51Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Social isolation can be defined as the lack of social interaction. Socially isolated people are often thought of as someone who will not, and sometimes cannot, begin and/or maintain a conversation of any length. This, however, is usually not the case. Most socially isolated individuals are quite capable of carrying on conversations, but find this to be an undesirable(very stressful situations for them) and/or unnecessary task.<br />
<br />
Traditionally those seeking support with social isolation have had to find it in psychotherapy groups (in a formal setting) and standard social venues of bars and clubs (in informal options).<br />
<br />
With the advent of online social networking communities, there are increasing options. Chat rooms, message boards, and other types of communities are now meeting the need for those who would rather stay home alone to do so yet still develop communities of online friends. However, it has been long debated whether this kind of social networking has created a new kind of social isolation in which people avoid or dismiss social situations that imply any type face-to-face interaction like spending time with family and friends in standard social environments (like family gatherings and parties).<br />
It has also been debated whether the internet has worsened the social situation by providing people with multiple online services that reduces the need of or even prevent from venturing in any kind of social interaction with other human being.<br />
<br />
More on social isolation at wikipedia[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_isolation]<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
1. Increasing inviduality in western cultures<br />
<br />
2. Increasing Increasing use of internet [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Increasing_Use_of_Internet]<br />
<br />
3. Increasing use of computer-mediated communication<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increasing_use_of_computer-mediated_communication]<br />
<br />
4. Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Power_of_Information-anywhere%2C_everywhere]<br />
Increasing Anonimity on th net<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
1. Increasing use online/virtual communities [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Virtual_Communities]<br />
<br />
2. Increasing user-generated content[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Increasing_user-generated_content]<br />
<br />
3. Increasing privacy issues<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
1. Cyber-adicts are internet users that spent a big part of their time on online activities, mostly social entow<br />
<br />
2. Social networking communities as valid and widely used social environments to meet new people<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
1. American Psychosomatic Society. Article on social isolation[http://www.psychosomaticmedicine.org/cgi/content/full/63/2/273]<br />
<br />
2. WebMD portal. Article on the impact of internet on social isolation[http://www.webmd.com/content/article/82/97105.htm]<br />
<br />
3. MySpace - Online Social Networking Community [http://www.myspace.com/]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_Value_of_an_MBA&diff=188169Future Value of an MBA2011-09-06T06:37:25Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The MBA degree has witnessed an expolsive increase in the number of people now holding the degree. This has consequences for the individual holding the qualification in terms of future career development as well as consequences for society at large. The more educated the workforce, the higher the level of economic activity. Right? The driving force considered specifically focusses on the value of an MBA from the RSM.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Strenghth of the RSM brand and positive ranking will induce potential students to apply to the RSM programme<br />
*Weakness of the economy. There is a negative correlation between the economic cycle and the number of people studying at business school. The weaker the global economy, the more applications RSM will receive which means that it will have a larger pool of applications to select the best students. Obviously, the better the quality of students entering the programme, the better the ranking of RSM will become. To coin an over used MBA cliche: "Garbage in, Garbage Out".<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*The variety and quality of other MBA programmes offered by US and European business schools will have an inhibiting effect on the performance of the RSM ranking. The more competition there is in the post graduate educational market, the harder it will be for RSM to rise up in the rankings.<br />
*Negative Rankings. The recent poor performance of RSM in some of the more prestigious rankings (I do not count Intermedier as a prestigious ranking as it only selects Dutch schools for its population)undermines the quality of the MBA programme and sends a strong signal to potential MBA applicants. <br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
*(Old)- The value of an MBA to society is high. It is an elitist qualification which can enable the holder of the degree to fast-track his/her career. People will be encouraged to undertake the degree at any institution, including RSM.<br />
*(New) - The market for MBA's is becoming saturated. An MBA will mean nothing as a qualification. The only thing that will matter is the institution that awarded the degree. People will be more reluctant to undertake the degree. RSM is underperforming in the rankings so less people will come here.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Please add any comments to the links below.<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
*There is s need to keep a constant eye on the business school rankings in order to follow the performance of RSM<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
http://www.rsm.nl<br />
<br />
http://www.businessweek.com<br />
<br />
http://www.ft.com<br />
<br />
http://www.wsj.com<br />
<br />
http://www.efinancialnews.com<br />
<br />
- Daniel Hall--[[User:81.58.58.178|81.58.58.178]] 05:57, 1 Dec 2004 (MST)</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_quantity_of_non-critical/populist_media&diff=188168Increasing quantity of non-critical/populist media2011-09-06T06:37:22Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
In the recent years there has been an increase in quantity of non-critical/populist media. Within the Lowlands this is related to the discussion about freedom of speech. Ever since Pim Fortuyn many people have the opinion that they should be allowed to say anything, because of freedom of speech. On of the results of this is the decrease in respect and tolerance towards each other. <br><br><br />
Another trend is the increase of quantity of media. In the last ten years the number of television channels has more than tripled. And the increasing use of the internet is also part of this. One of the recent trends, web-logs, gives everybody the feeling they are a journalist. Many of these people enjoy ventilating their ideas without knowing all the details. This often leads to more non-critical or populist media. <br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
With the increase of quantity of media it has become important who brings news first. Because of this speed of brining news to the public, this sometimes results in less research and verification of quality of the news. <br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
All together it can be said that the critical media has become a much smaller part of the total of media brought to the people in the Lowlands. Also many people don’t admire the critical media anymore. They think that (almost) everybody can have an opinion about everything. And with this the quantity of non-critical/populist media has increased tremendously.<br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
<br />
- Media techniques like web-logs make in easier to spread peoples individual ideas<br />
<br />
- Increase of media channels<br />
<br />
- More convinced about the freedom of speech<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
- Tolerance and respect<br />
<br />
- Critical reasoning<br />
<br />
- Admiration of the wise and critical opinion makers<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_influence_of_Millennials&diff=188167Increasing influence of Millennials2011-09-06T06:36:28Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Born from 1980 through 2000, the Millennials are well established in the workplace today, and the next generation is showing up with a whole new perspective, a different set of values, a distinctive work ethic. Today the Generation X’ers are managing them, but in the future more and more Millenians will gain influence both politically and within the working environment. Millennials are sociable, optimistic, talented, well-educated, inclusive, open-minded, influential, and achievement-oriented. They’ve always felt sought after, needed, indispensable. They arrive in the workplace with higher expectations than any generation before them, they’re connected and switch employer if the job doesn’t match those expectations. They communicate with thousands of their cohorts with one click of the mouse.<br />
Seven key trends of the 90s and 00s had a profound effect on their generational personality: focus on family, scheduled/structured lives, multiculturalism, terrorism, heroism and parent advocacy and globalism.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
• Technology: television, cellular phones, computers, game consoles and mostly the internet enables the millennial to keep in touch with a fast moving world and his cohorts<br><br />
• Wealth: more wealth enables more technology and supports an easy going life<br><br />
• Liberalism: Liberalism supports the open-minded Millennial<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
• Economic downturn: less wealth and mostly youth unemployment affects the Millennial. He will be open to different kinds of addiction: drugs, obesity and technology<br><br />
• Aging population: the longer Generation X stays working, the less chances the Millennials get.<br><br />
• Drugs: Millennials live with no lack of wealth, drugs can hinder the Millennial to positively develop.<br><br />
• Obesity: watching television on the coach with snacks hinders the Millennial to positively develop.<br><br />
• Technology addiction: In Japan the phenomena of Hikikomori exists already. This phenomenon of reclusive adolescents and young adults who have chosen to withdraw from social life — often seeking extreme degrees of isolation and confinement due to various personal and social factors in their lives. These people often are obsessed with (online) (role-playing) videogames and television. They communicate over internet only.<br><br />
• Workaholism from parents: family orientation is a basic trend for the Millennial, a lack of this will enable chances of addictions.<br><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
The emerging Air companys' all sorts of marketing programs aimed 'Frequent Travelers' is a very good example. Nowadays, there are people who travel so much that merely gaining milage services cannot satisfy them, and they bring so much profit for the air companys that they try all means to retain this group of travelers their roylty. Some even come up with special class which provide personal services above First Class!<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Claire Raines: Connecting Generations: The Sourcebook<br />
Neil Howe, William Strauss: Millennials Rising : The Next Great Generation<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
The Millennials generation is born between 1980 and 2000, they will gain influence in the next 40 years as the Generation X’ers (born from 1960 to 1980) will retire.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
Managing Millennials: http://www.generationsatwork.com/articles/millenials.htm<br><br />
Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Y<br><br />
Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikikomori<br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Emergence_of_new_Technology_Related_Diseases&diff=188166Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases2011-09-06T06:35:56Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Techno-addiction might they be the new kind of disease. People are entering into their own world of bits and bytes, spending days only in front of their computer and spending less and less time with friends and families. Teenagers becoming addicted to the use of mobile phones and the communication power they gain, while business people are striving like Maniacs for the ideal of perfect information with Laptops, Wireless Cards, PDAs and multifunctional devices. <br />
Besides Psychological problems, more people than ever before suffer from Migraine or eye problems. Orthopaedics have more patients than before and the diet industry booms.<br />
These developments may influence the future of communication technology. Terms of use may emerge and regulations will inhibit companies to adopt new technologies easily. Anxious of health implications new technologies will have to reflect upon social responsibility. <br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
The flexibility of communication devices and online connections simplify the usage of new technologies.<br />
* [[Cost of Setting up a Wi-Fi Network]]<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
Regulations concerning the design of work environments.<br />
* [[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Past: Technology will help you to do work more efficient, to balance work and spare time more flexible and healthy.<br />
Change: Technology will mix work and leisure even more, imposing stress, social isolation and pressure on individuals and groups.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
"We react with an almost addictive impulse to new opportunities to connect with one another, and this creates behavioral issues." <br> ''in "Connected to a fault - BEWARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF GROWING CONNECTIVITY" <br> by Peter Coffee, eWeek, June 14, 2004.''<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
[http://www.globalchange.com/radiation.htm Brain Cancer from Mobile Phones?]<br><br />
[http://www.apa.org/monitor/sep98/isolat.html Discussion of Internet's impact on health]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Digital_Literacy&diff=188165Digital Literacy2011-09-06T06:35:00Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The digital divide is seen as the gap between people that have access to and know about computers and those that are far behind or will never use such devices. It is often thought to be a socio-economic phenomenon, in such a way that an increase of the divide in the future will also further alienate the underserved citizens and developing countries. <br />
<br />
Therefore, throughout the last decades a large number of digital literacy initiatives have been developed. For example, in 1989 the International Development of Computer Education (IDCE) program was established. It was the goal of the IDCE to increase access to basic computers for educational purposes in developing countries.<br />
<br />
In 1995 the European Commission launched an initiative to improve the level of IT skills in industry. As a result the Council of European Professional Informatics Societies (CEPIS) task force was founded that introduced the European Computer Driving License (ECDL) across Europe in 1996. Later this was also rolled out internationally as the International Computer Driving License (ICDL) and since has grown to be the global benchmark for end-user computer certification. Another initiative is IC³, the first global internet and computing literacy measurement standard that took off in 2002.<br />
<br />
Such digital literacy initiatives clearly deliver benefits for a wide range of people, from youngsters in education, to employees and companies, and even countries seeking skills to improve their economic opportunities. Digital literacy is thus a means that will offer many opportunities to various people and it even will become more and more essential to function in the digital era. It is however uncertain how quick and widespread the development of digital literacy globally will be, but in turn it will definitely affect the development of the internet and its applications.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
Factors which strengthen this driving force. <br />
1. Lower costs of chips and computers<br />
2. Aging of population <br />
3. Economic growth<br />
4. Governmental stimulus<br />
5. Private donors<br />
6. Improved inter-governmental relationships<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
Factors which weaken this driving force. <br />
1. Wider economic divide<br />
2. Inadequate e-governance initiatives<br />
3. Low literacy levels<br />
4. Baby boom in developed countries<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Old: Productivity is crucial <br />
<br />
New: Digital literacy is crucial in the digital era<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Sources for additional information about this driving force. (if you have found people, put the links to them) <br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
1999 establishment of International Development of Computer Education (IDCE) program<br />
<br />
1996 launch of European Computer Driving Licence (ECDL)<br />
<br />
2001 First World Computer Literacy Day<br />
<br />
2002 launch of IC³ <br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
[http://www.cepis.org Council of European Professional Informatics Societies] <br />
<br />
[http://www.ecdl.com European Computer Driving License Foundation]<br />
<br />
[http://www.gdlcouncil.org Global Digital Literacy Council]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Consumer_health_informatics_in_the_information_age&diff=188164Consumer health informatics in the information age2011-09-06T06:34:30Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description==<br />
<br />
<br />
Accessing health information is one of the commonest reasons for going on-line: surveys show that 50% to 75% of World Wide Web users have used it to look for health information, and those who do so access such information over 3 times a month.<br />
<br />
In December 2001 the NHS Direct consumer health information Web site (http://www.nhsdirect.nhs.uk/) dealt with 5.2 million hits from 171900 visitors.<br />
<br />
<br />
The increasing availability of interactive information that is accessible to consumers, most notably through the internet and related technologies such as digital television and web television, coincides with the desire of most consumers to assume more responsibility for their health and the pressures of costs on health systems, the emphasis on the health of populations and on prevention, and the growing desire of health professionals to realise the potential of patients and their families.<br />
<br />
<br />
Information technology and consumerism are synergistic forces that promote an "information age healthcare system" in which consumers can, ideally, use information technology to gain access to information and control their own health care, thereby utilising healthcare resources more efficiently. Today's "cyberdocs" on the internet may tomorrow turn into more trustworthy "cyberlicensed" professionals counselling patients online. This development is under way in the United Kingdom with the introduction of services such as NHS Direct, which provides advice to patients both on the web and over the phone.<br />
<br />
Additionally, intelligent informatics applications can channel the floods of health information reaching consumers, can help patients attain a healthy balance between self reliance and seeking professional help, and can also help balance responsiveness to consumers and the management of demand, and virtual and face to face interaction.<br />
<br />
Information technology and consumer health informatics are becoming an integral part of modern concepts of public health and national healthcare policies in many developed countries.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''National healthcare policies'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Information technology and consumer health informatics are becoming integral parts of the modern concept of public health and national healthcare policies.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Developping or adapting existing computer based decision support systems for use by consumers'''<br />
<br />
<br />
One decision support system that is being adapted and tested for consumers is HouseCall (Applied Medical Informatics), an informatics system derived from the existing physician knowledge base Iliad.<br />
<br />
Focus group evaluations of HouseCall have shown that the program is easy to use and that consumers like using technology at home to investigate health issues and like participating in solving their medical problems.<br />
<br />
The main challenge in developing comprehensive systems for consumers is that little is known about how patients interact with computer based informatics tools and how they digest and act on information.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Adoption of smart cards'''<br />
<br />
<br />
The adoption of smart cards was recently announced by the European Union in an initiative which aims to ensure that "all European citizens should have the possibility to have a health smart card to enable secure and confidential access to networked patient information" by 2003.<br />
<br />
Smart cards can be used as places to store health information directly, or the electronic medical record can be put onto the internet and smart cards can serve as keys by providing access. Just as consumers bank online today, they may in future be able to browse and annotate their health records online.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''The quality control of health information on the internet and levels of certification'''<br />
<br />
<br />
An ongoing European Union project, the MedPICS Certification and Rating of Trustworthy Health Information on the Net (medCERTAIN), is based on the idea that the quality of health information and interactive applications on the internet should not be controlled by a central body or authority but instead must be evaluated and labelled (associated with metainformation) by medical societies, professionals, or consumer organisations.<br />
<br />
The project is developing a technical infrastructure to allow individuals, organisations, associations, societies, and other entities to rate the published health information found online by using a standardised vocabulary. The medCERTAIN consortium will also create different levels of certification for those who publish health information on the internet<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Consumer empowerment with the internet'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Physicians are increasingly experiencing patients bringing Internet printouts to the consultation.<br />
The Internet is a key influence in changing the balance of (knowledge) power between health care professionals and the public, empowering patients to become more involved in health care decision making and contributing to the deprofessionalization of medicine.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Access to information on the internet'''<br />
<br />
<br />
The information society brings a risk of a widening of the gap between those who have access to new technology and those who have been excluded. In the industrial age, the inverse care law described the idea that the availability of good medical care tends to vary inversely with the need for medical care in the population served. In the information age, we face an analogous "inverse information law"- that is, access to appropriate information is particularly difficult for those who need it most.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Confidentiality of Electronic Medical Records'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Electronic medical records (EMRs) are rapidly becoming the standard among hospitals and large physician organizations, and should be universal among health providers in all settings by the year 2020. However, consumers are paranoid that their medical records could be accessed by their employers, insurance companies, banks and lenders, credit reporting firms, or vendors of massive consumer databases.<br />
Electronic security experts believe the technology exists to safeguard consumer health information. But consumer activists are not fully convinced, and may raise barriers to electronic transmission of patient data, even from one doctor to another physician.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Internet Privacy'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Medical support groups and health-oriented chat rooms are propelling the consumer demand for more detailed medical information. But members of those chat rooms, such as AIDS patients or the disabled, are afraid that their electronic conversations and e-mail lists may not be private.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Regulation of E-Health Commerce'''<br />
<br />
<br />
Online prescribing of Viagra, Propecia, Xenical, and other popular lifestyle pharmaceuticals has led to calls for new governmental regulation.<br />
Health claims for some remedies are troubling government. The FDA has already warned several health Web sites about alleged health benefits, and the sites have voluntarily complied or closed. Although federal policy-makers have generally adopted a hands-off attitude towards the Internet, spurious health claims for unlicensed health products will probably lead to more regulation.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Readability and educational levels'''<br />
<br />
<br />
In one study of people having cardiac surgery, 18 had already used the Internet for information related to their surgery (or the condition which necessitated their surgery) prior to recruitment into the study (Murero et al 2001). Only three of these people rated the readability of Internet medical information on cardiac surgery as acceptable. The majority (83%) encountered difficulties understanding the information. In spite of this, 94% found the information helped them cope better with stress and anxiety during the pre-operative and post-operative period. Almost all felt that easier language should be used in medical information on the Internet.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
<br />
<br />
- Healthcare and medical information are provided by independent doctors or at hospitals.<br />
<br />
- Consumers can use information technology, and especially the internet, to gain access to medical information and control their own health care.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Experts==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
== Timing ==<br />
<br />
<br />
The Internet has been used in health care for nearly 20 years as a research, educational, and informational tool. Most healthcare professionals schooled or trained after 1980 have had the opportunity to investigate medical- or health-related topics via online services such as Medline, Grateful Med, and similar electronic databases. It is not surprising, therefore, that academic medical centers were among the first healthcare institutions to establish a presence on the Web. Their primary goal, however, was education and research rather than marketing and promotion - a goal that has begun to change.<br />
<br />
Commercial uses of the Internet in health care have a more limited history but are evolving and expanding.<br />
<br />
<br />
Five basic types of healthcare organizations now represented on the Web:<br />
<br />
<br />
* Health plans;<br />
<br />
* Medical centers and facilities;<br />
<br />
* Medical manufacturers (including pharmaceutical, hardware, and disposable manufacturers);<br />
<br />
* Membership organizations, educational groups, and public welfare organizations; and<br />
<br />
* Medical provider groups.<br />
<br />
<br />
== Web Resources ==<br />
<br />
<br />
Journal of Medical Internet Research<br />
<br />
http://www.jmir.org<br />
<br />
<br />
British Medical journal<br />
<br />
http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Continuously_growing_demand_for_new_medical_applications&diff=188163Continuously growing demand for new medical applications2011-09-06T06:33:26Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>'''This page is being edited by Peter Friedl EMBA09. In case of any questions/remarks [mailto:peter.friedl@gmx.at contact me].<br />
'''<br><br><br />
<br />
==Description==<br />
The achievments in research and development in the biotech and medical industry give hope to potentially cure some very serious diseases, were traditional medicine has failed up till now. <br />
Global diseases are increasingly presented in media, and at the same time the aging population requires more medical treatment. All these factors contribute to an increasing demand for new medical applications.<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
* New diseases that require medication<br><br />
* Globalization of diseases (link to driving force [[Illnesses of global importance/Pandemics ]])<br><br />
* Successful development of new medical applications<br><br />
* Aging population with increasing needs for medication (link to driving force [[Aging population]])<br><br />
* Evolution of the pathogen<br><br />
* Successfull marketing and advertising to create demands for medication<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
* Increased healthcare costs (public and private)<br><br />
* Lack of funding for health care systems<br><br />
* Increasing health of population<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
Increasing life expectancy goes hand in hand with increasing demand for medical applications<br><br />
An important question is "What is the value of human life?" Which efforts and costs are spent to prolong the life of individual people in the different regions of the world? <br><br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Computer_games_and_health_issues&diff=188162Computer games and health issues2011-09-06T06:32:43Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>Here is a template to upload driving forces. <br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
Computer games have assumed a major role in today’s culture and society around the world. Given the strong influential role, it is likely that video games may positively or negatively affect the health of game players. Health issues linked computer games are extensive and thus have resulted in large amounts of research on the topic. The underlaying fact is that there is evidence of both negative and positive effects on ones health as a result from excessive playing computer games.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
1. Individualization <br><br />
2. Lack of physical activity <br><br />
3. Junkfood <br><br />
4. Addictiveness <br><br />
5. Violence in society <br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
1. Media <br><br />
2. Parental control <br><br />
3. Outdoor activities (with friends) <br><br />
2. In-game information <br><br />
3. Healty games with more hand-eye coordination <br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Reported cases relating to injuries caused by the overuse of playing computer games has resulted in the "tendonitis phenomenon", or in other words ‘Nintendinitis’. The increase in popularity of game consoles has led to an increase in locomotor problems in the tissues of the hand. While once computer games were considered harmless and even favourable, because it kept kids from hanging on streets, it is now considered as an increasing problem factor. Not only has it caused health problems, but in many cases increased aggresive behavior and has decreased the social behavior.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
Dorman, Steve (1997) Video and computer games: Effect on children and implications for health education. <br><br />
<br />
Goldstein, J. (2001) Does Playing Violent Games Cause Aggressive Behaviour?<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
Young people are spending a lot of time playing computer games. Seventy-nine percent of American children play computer games on a regular basis. On a daily basis, children who own computer games spend on average 1.5 hours playing them. On average, young people between the ages of 7 and 17 play video or computer games eight hours a week. It is expected that this rate will increase with the upcoming new consoles by Sony and Microsoft.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
http://www.knowledge.hut.fi/projects/games/gamelinks.html <br><br />
http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/faculty/caa/Video_Game_FAQs.html <br><br />
http://news.uns.purdue.edu/html4ever/9906.Sherry.video.html</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Community_Feeling&diff=188161Community Feeling2011-09-06T06:32:06Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>Driving Force: Community Feeling<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
With the raise of open source software everybody is invited to work on software developments projects. Not just programmers are invited to write code on projects, also end users are invited to report bugs, people are invited to manage the whole project. The community feeling among people triggers them to work as hobbyists on large projects together, to tackle bugs both in their own interest as in the interest of others.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Open source software<br />
*Decrease in workload, increase in spare time<br />
*Decrease of complexity in programming languages<br />
*Increase education in the world<br />
*Internet as a way to communicate<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*Large companies<br />
*Lack of support<br />
*Communication issues among project team members<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
*Everybody in the world can work with each other to develop good software products<br />
<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
*Software developers<br />
*Business ICT managers <br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
*[http://www.Slashdot.org Slashdot]<br />
*[http://www.newsforge.com Newsforge]<br />
*[http://www.sourceforge.org Sourceforge]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_Mobility&diff=188160Increasing Mobility2011-09-06T06:32:01Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The dictionary definition is a good start.<br />
;Mobile:<br />
<b><i>-adjective</i></b><br />
<ol><br />
<li>Capable of moving or of being moved readily from place to place.</li><br />
<li>Tending to travel and relocate frequently.</li><br />
</ol><br />
;Mobility<br />
<ol><br />
<li>the quality of being mobile.</li><br />
<li><i>Sociology</i>. the movement of people in a population, as from place to place, from job to job, or from one social class or level to another.</li><br />
</ol><br />
<br><br />
The world population is increasingly more mobile and is more capable and willing to move from one place to another, both temporarily and permanently. This has been driven by falling transportation prices - particularly airline travel - and the expansion of corporations globally. Technology is also a driving force as it becomes possible to remain in contact with employees almost anywhere on the globe. The use of laptop computers over desktop computers is becoming commonplace in order to facilitate the flexibility required for a mobile workforce. Workforce mobility is more prevalent in the developed than in the developing world.<br />
<br />
Mobility can also refer to population migration. In the developing world the rural population is migrating towards to cities in order to find work, putting strain on resources and infrastructure.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Advances in ground and air transportation. It allows people to travel around the world with safety, comfort and speed at a low cost.<br />
* Advances in information and communication technology, especially wireless technology, which free people from restraints of their location - you can communicate from anywhere.<br />
* [[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]] <br />
* Increasing international cooperation, which requires people to travel around the world for projects and research.<br />
* Labour shortages<br />
* [[Media Globalization]] <br />
* The world's rapid urbanization and motorization.<br />
* [[Virtual Integration]]<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* Cultural barriers<br />
* Disease - AIDS, influenza<br />
* Economic restraints<br />
* International conflict <br />
* Language barriers<br />
* National barriers - legislation, visa, immigration rules<br />
* Political disputes<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
* The world is small - you can move from any location to any other location within 24 hours.<br />
* Though local knowledge is useful, local specialists are no longer needed as they can be flown in from anywhere.<br />
* A large international workforce is no longer required. Having an office in Hong Kong may be sufficient to serve customers in other parts of Asia.<br />
* Air transportation is now seen as commodity service rather than a luxury. A result of this is that airlines offer special services to frequent travelers, even going as far as to offer exclusive hidden levels in frequent flier programs for the top spenders – United’s Global Services class is an example.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
* Consultancy firms<br />
* Multi-national organisations<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
* On March 10, 1876, in Boston, Massachusetts, Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone.<br />
* By the end of 1896,Henry Ford had sold his first car.<br />
* Commercial air transportation began in 1914 when the St. Petersburg-Tampa Air Boat Line briefly carried the first scheduled paying passengers across Tampa Bay, Florida. Since that time, the airliner has revolutionized the way people travel, greatly reducing travel time between countries and bringing the world closer together. <br />
* The boeing 747, the first of the wide-bodied commercial jets, had its inaugural flight in 1970. Four jet engines propel the plane, which reaches cruising speeds of 885 km/hr (550 mph), and later became the premier transcontinental jet in the world in the late 1970s and seated as many as 490 passengers. <br />
* 1987 GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) standard for Europe created based on a hybrid of FDMA (analogue) and TDMA (digital) technologies.<br />
* Vehicle ownership per 1000 population by 1999<br />
* Mobile phones have been the most successful electronic product of all time with over 264 million handsets shipped in 1999 a number that’s predicted to increase threefold by 2004<br />
* On December 2004, new world car speed record is top speed at 395+ km/h.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Societal_Driving_Forces >>back>>]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Violence_in_computer_games&diff=188159Violence in computer games2011-09-06T06:31:38Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>Here is a template to upload driving forces. <br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
Violence in videogames is an issue that arises on a frequent basis in news media around the world. Many critics of computer games state there are links between violent videogames and subsequent agressive and antisocial behaviour in players. Yet the opposite group states that computer games enhance the eye-hand skills of player. It even stimulates their intelligence. Just think of the numerous puzzle games. But unfortunately, we can't get around the numerous cases where computer players caused themselves or others injuries. Directly or indirectly caused by computer games. <br />
The ever increasing quality of graphics and the realness of computer games has therefore raised the concerns of not only the parents, but also the government of many countries and even the society as a whole.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
1. Lack of governmental/parental control <br><br />
2. Lack of outdoor activities <br><br />
3. Increasing aggresiveness in society and media <br><br />
4. Popularity for aggresive games<br />
5. Improving graphics and realness in computer games<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
1. Governmental/parental control <br><br />
2. Increase in social activities <br><br />
3. Media promotion for outdoor activities <br><br />
4. Prohibition for game developers <br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
<br />
The way we used to look at computer games has been entirely changed. While computer games were mainly for children, where the aim was to get from point A to point B (Mario), or eat as many dots as you could (PacMan), the purpose and target group has shifted to adults.<br />
The increasing improvements of graphics and reality of games have changed the way we look at games today. No more are they innocent harmless computer games were all family could join. Most sellling games these days have either violence or sex. And in some cases an explosive amount of both. Where many thought that games could educate and enhance intelligence, its been shown that it also can increase aggresive behaviour. In many cases this aggresave behaviour was just expressed towards the tv screen, but unfortunately, there were cases were gamers injured themselves and other people because of the games they played. <br />
This has raised a growing concern in scociety and has changed the way we think about computer games.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
<br />
Dorman, Steve (1997) Video and computer games: Effect on children and implications for health education. <br><br />
<br />
Goldstein, J. (2001) Does Playing Violent Games Cause Aggressive Behaviour?<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
Mature-rated games are now the fastest growing segment of the video game industry (Knight-Ridder Newspapers, 1/5/03). About one-third of video games now purchased are rated "M," the marketing firm NPD Funworld reports. <br><br />
<br />
About 40 percent of those who play Mature-rated games are under 18, according to the Federal Trade Commission. But children under 18 comprise less than 20 percent of the U.S. population, according to the US Census Bureau. <br><br />
<br />
45 percent of all video game players are under the age of 18, according to a Wall Street Journal survey (10/14/02). That means that of the 146 million gamers in the United States, 65.7 million are children and teens. 20 million video game players are 12 and under. <br><br />
<br />
The best-selling game of 2002 was M-rated: Grand Theft Auto III.<br />
<br />
78 percent of unaccompanied children ages 13–16 were able to buy Mature-rated games at retail stores, according to a secret shopper survey conducted by the Federal Trade Commission in 2001. Even among several of those retail stores with programs in place to restrict sales, 73 percent of unaccompanied children were able to buy violent, Mature-rated games. <br> <br />
<br />
95 percent of teenage boys play video games each month according to a survey conducted by Jupiter Research in April 2003. <br> <br />
<br />
Children are leaving traditional toys and play at younger and younger ages in favor of electronic entertainment. Toy sales were stagnant in 2001; video game sales were up 43 percent over 2000. (The Washington Post, 2/17/02) <br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
<http://elspa.co.uk/about/pr/pr.asp?mode=view&t=1&id=405&ref=home>; <br><br />
http://www.media-awareness.ca/english/issues/violence/business_media_violence.cfm <br><br />
http://www.lionlamb.org/media_violence_video_games.htm <br><br />
http://www.apa.org/releases/videogames.html <br><br />
http://www.mediascope.org/pubs/ibriefs/vgv.htm <br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Chinese_people%27s_increasing_leisure_time&diff=188158Chinese people's increasing leisure time2011-09-06T06:31:31Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description==<br />
More and healthier leisure-time activities are a direct result of economic development and are a useful in indicator of social progress.[1] Now people in China enjoy more holidays than ever and have an increased amount of time available for entertainment and relaxation. This has spurned increased adoption of broadband internet, as people flock online to watch movies, play games, and chat with friends.<br><br />
<br><br />
Under Mao, Chinese citizens were guaranteed leisure time, although they were only free to pursue party-approved activities. Karl Marx concieved leisure time as room for human development, while Mao took it to mean the time works need to recuperate for their next shift. Between 1958 and 1960, the party issued directives guaranteeing the masses 8 hours of sleep and a few hours leisure time -- although this was generally not free to duties used to immerse themselves more fully in communist ideology.[3]<br><br />
<br><br />
Now students in China have no regular school classes for 160 days every year. The five-day school week was adopted when China reduced the work week from six days to five in 1995. On top of weekends without regular class, China's youth also enjoy three seven-day holidays which fall around May first, the Labor Day; October 1, the country's National Day and traditional Spring Festival, or Chinese lunar new year. With the extra spare time China's students are finding more free time for extra-curricular activities, although despite the extra days off from regular classes, China's students face tremendous pressure to get good scores if they hope to attend university. Most students in fact attend extra classes on weekends and throughout the summer.[2]<br><br />
<br><br />
Ministry of Labor and Social Security figures show Chinese employees work an average 20.92 days a month and 2,008.8 hours a year, similar to figures in the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan. This results in increased demand in service industries, such as tourism, entertainment, service, cultural, sports facilities, transport and museum sectors. However, after years of neglect, they require expansive development to become a comprehensive; for example, in the United States, the leisure industry contributes the largest percentage of GDP and accounts for a third of consumption expenditure.[4]<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
* Abundant holidays<br />
* Wide band Internet access<br />
* Variety of online entertainment<br />
*[[Rising costs of labour in China]]<br />
**Increased wages, purchasing power, and standard of living<br />
*Increase in availability of labour-saving household devices<br />
*Change in political climate<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
*Some people haven’t realized the benefits from Internet<br />
*Some people are quite busy with other business on holidays<br />
*History<br />
*Pressure on students to succeed academically<br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
*More and more people choose to spend their holidays on playing online games<br />
*Changes in Chinese consumption and spending<br />
**Many people do shopping online instead of going to shopping mall<br />
*Increased emphasis on sport in China<br />
**Beijing Olympics<br />
<br />
==Timing==<br />
{|<br />
|November 1994<br />
|Chinese Ministry of Education issued ''Opinion on Comprehensively Carrying Out the Educational Policy that Lightens the Schoolwork Burden of Elementary and Middle School Students''<br />
|-<br />
|May 1995<br />
|Chinese government started double holiday weekends<br />
|-<br />
|1999<br />
|Chinese government started 7-day holiday on Labor Day, National Day and Spring Festival<br />
|-<br />
|June 2000<br />
|Chinese General Office of the State Council issued ''Notice about Strengthening the Construction and Management of Young People's Activity Venues''<br />
|-<br />
|2003<br />
|China's GDP per capita exceeded US$1000, which is regarded as a solid economic basis for more holidays<br />
|-<br />
|2004<br />
|Government implements requried daily leisure hour for students<br />
|-<br />
|March 2004<br />
|Ministry of Culture and State Cultural Relics Bureau ordered every museum and gallery to offer free tickets to minors under 18 and 50% student discounts<br />
|-<br />
|July 2008<br />
|Beijing hosts the Summer Olympics<br />
|}<br />
<br />
==Web Resources==<br />
#[http://www.acyf.org.cn/english/zgqn/200710/t20071030_606741.htm "Leisure-time Activities", All-China Youth Federation]<br />
#[http://www.jschina.com.cn/gb/jschina/english/edu/eduevents/userobject1ai1104956.shtml "Chinese youth have more leisure time", English.Jschina.com.cn]<br />
#[http://www.nissi.org/keytext.cfm?keytext_id=1001 "The Ideological Straightjacket on Leisure Time in China Comes Off", NISSI]<br />
#[http://www.newsgd.com/culture/peopleandlife/200605080048.htm "Chinese find ways to while away leisure time", News Guangdong]<br />
<br />
==Revision History==<br />
{|<br />
|March<br />
|2005<br />
|Created by ChongGao<br />
|-<br />
|September<br />
|2009<br />
|Updated by [[User:Gerrit_ledderhof|Gerrit Ledderhof]]<br />
|}</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Time_as_a_valuable_resource&diff=188157Time as a valuable resource2011-09-06T06:31:09Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Time as a valuable resource and Increasing of communication capabilities<br />
<br />
(especially electronic) we see a tendency for people to accept more and <br />
<br />
more the electronic devices in their normal life.<br />
<br />
Edit by Ik Hur, Group 1<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
People devote there lives to work (less time available in their private life in general) <br />
<br />
Social activities are reduced extremely. <br />
<br />
Physical communication is also reduced<br />
<br />
Families have been reduced in number and have fewer children, as they do not have time for this.<br />
<br />
Demographic changes<br />
<br />
[[Image:aging society.jpg]]<br />
<br />
* older or younger people (age pyramid)<br />
* more single and richer individuals<br />
* population shifts from urban to rural areas or voiceovers<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
Welfare system is having trouble to cope with aging population<br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
<br />
Everything moves fast <br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
[[http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/cahoob/inhode2004/inhode_008.cfm/ Demographic and Socio-Economic Influences on Housing Demand in Canada]]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_population_of_China&diff=188156Increasing population of China2011-09-06T06:30:49Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description==<br />
Population of the world is around 6.5 billion. Twenty percent of population in the world lives in mainland China. The Chinese government is trying to limit population growth very strongly.<br><br />
<br><br />
According to estimates, the currently population of China is 1,338,612,968 (July 2009). It is growing at a rate of 0.665% per year (almost 10 million people), dispite of a net emigration of 0.39 migrants/1,000 population (or 552,000 people).[1]<br><br />
<br><br />
Other reports indicate that the Chinese population grows by 10 million or 12-13 million every year; growth that exceeds the total population of many major countries such as Belgium or Greece. Furthermore, some Chinese provinces are even larger than major countries; for example, Sichuan province has a population of 107 million -- almost twice that of the United Kingdom![2]<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
*Birth rate is double the death rate<br />
**14 births/1,000 vs 7.06 deaths/1,000<br />
*High rural population<br />
**57% of population is still rural<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
*The gender-ratio imbalance<br />
**113 boys versus 100 girls<br />
*Unemployment<br />
**200 million surplus labor forces<br />
*Net emigration<br />
**0.39 net emigrants/1,000 population<br />
*One-Child policy<br />
*Aging population<br />
**Over 100 million people are over 65<br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
*Fight for resources<br />
*Potential for drastic environmental problems<br />
*Large domestic market for consumption<br />
*Abundant human resources<br />
<br />
==Timing==<br />
{|<br />
|1950<br />
|Population reaches 563 million<br />
|-<br />
|1960<br />
|Population reaches 650 million<br />
|-<br />
|1970<br />
|Population reaches 820 million<br />
|-<br />
|1980<br />
|Population reaches 985 million<br />
|-<br />
|1990<br />
|Population reaches 1,140 billion<br />
|-<br />
|1995<br />
|Population reaches 1,226.7 million<br />
|-<br />
|2009<br />
|Population reaches 1,338.6 million<br />
|}<br />
<br />
==Web Resources==<br />
#[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html "China", CIA World Factbook]<br />
#[http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/china/geog/population.htm "China's Population: Readings and Maps", East Asian Curriculum Project, Columbia University]<br />
#[http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/argu/trends/trend_10.htm "Arguments - Trends in Population Growth", IIASA]<br />
#[http://www.prb.org/Articles/2006/ChinasConcernOverPopulationAgingandHealth.aspx "China's Concern Over Population Aging and Health", Toshiko Kaneda, Population Reference Bureau]<br />
#http://www.cpirc.org.cn/en/eindex.htm<br />
<br />
==Revision History==<br />
{|<br />
|November 2005<br />
|Created by Skparkb<br />
|-<br />
|September 2009<br />
|Updated by [[User:Gerrit_ledderhof|Gerrit Ledderhof]]<br />
|}</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_efforts_to_make_Seoul_a_clean_and_green_place_to_live&diff=188155Increasing efforts to make Seoul a clean and green place to live2011-09-06T06:30:35Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>Increasing efforts to make Seoul cleaner and greener place to live <br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
The topography and geographical proximity of Seoul worsens the city’s pollution problem. Because Seoul is surrounded by high mountains, the air circulation throughout the city is poor. The burgeoning population of the metropolitan area, combined with the air pollution blowing in from rapidly industrializing China to the west, have exacerbated the pollution conditions of Seoul. <br />
<p></p><br />
However, the city of Seoul has not stood idly by. Despite the unfavorable conditions, it is taking on number of measures in order to , and these actions have proven effective. <br />
==Enablers:==<br />
o City’s plans to improve air quality: 1) Strengthening Environmental Standards for Air Quality Preservation, 2) Increase in the Operation of CNG (Compressed Natural Gas), 3) Operation of an Ozone Alert System <br><br />
o Preservation of clean water by 1) Improvement of the Water Quality of Water Supply Sources, 2) Improvement of the Water Quality of the Hangang River Tributaries<br />
. <br><br />
o The Five-Year Park Expansion Plan to expand parks in residential areas. Eco-parks, natural parks, and sports parks will be created, and landowners will be fairly compensated for all lands obtained for the parks. Small neighborhood parks, such as small-sized theme parks and gardens for local communities, will be created on lands, which are presently idle. <br><br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
o NO and ozone are worsening due to the rapid increase in the number of automobiles (from 450,000 units in 1985 to 2.55 million units in 2001). Automobile emissions are responsible for 85% of all air pollution.<br />
. <br><br />
o Inefficient funds and time to take care of growing amount of waste & decreasing supply of clean water due to increasing population . <br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Seoul Metropolitan Government is actively implementing actions covering air pollution, water supply, waste management in order to make the city greener with public and private organizations. With the municipality purchases, landscapes, and manages parks and green zones aiming to pass them on to descendants and make Seoul healthy place to live for long time to come.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Ministry of Environment (english.me.go.kr), Environmental Management Corporation (www.emc.go.kr) <br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Restoration of Inner City Greenbelt Area (Dec, 2006)<br><br />
Replacement of All Aged Underground Water pipes (Dec, 2006)<br><br />
Achieve 50 ppm Air Quality (US Standard)(Dec, 2006년)<br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
english.me.go.kr <br><br />
www.emc.or.kr <br><br />
english.seoul.go.kr<br><br />
www.envico.or.kr<br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increased_environmental_degradation_in_China&diff=188154Increased environmental degradation in China2011-09-06T06:30:09Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
China is currently suffering from a number of poor environmental conditions including air pollution, acid rain, loss of agricultural land, forest deficiency, poor water quality, water scarcity, ocean coastline pollution, and loss in biodiversity. Three out of four city dwellers live below China’s air-quality standard. Acid rain fell on a quarter of its cities for more than 60% of rainy days per year in the 1990s and now affects a quarter of China’s area, making it among the world’s most severely affected countries. Water quality in most Chinese rivers and groundwater sources is poor and declining. About 75% of lakes are polluted. The percentage of industrial waste water treated has been increasing, but only 20% of domestic waste water is treated, compared with 80% in the developed world. Almost all coastal seas are polluted, mainly by pollutants from the land, plus oil spills and other marine activities. These environmental problems have been caused by explosive economic growth, an increase the number of households, increased urbanization, increased affluence and consumption, failure to execute environmental policy, lack of public awareness and prioritization of economic growth over sustainability.[1]<br />
<br />
Potentially more important then the aforementioned environmental impacts is a further consequence of what China's continued economic growth and subsequent increase in consumption means for the rest of the world. China currently has the world's largest population. Total production or consumption is the product of population size times per capita production or consumption rate. China’s total production and consumption are already high, because of its huge population, despite its per capita rates still being very low. But China is rapidly becoming a developed-world economy. If China’s per capita consumption rates do reach such levels, and even if populations, production and consumption rates everywhere else remained unchanged, those rate increases alone would translate into a 94% increase in total world production or consumption in industrial metals, and a 106% increase in the case of oil. In other words, China’s achievement of developed-world consumption standards will approximately double the world’s human resource use and environmental impact. This is why China’s environmental problems are the world’s.[1]<br />
<br />
==Numbers:==<br />
*Among the 45 kinds of principal mineral reserves that China possesses only six will be sufficient to meet the country's needs in 2020. [8]<br />
*Approximately 300 million people lack access to clean drinking water and 400 million people live in areas with dangerously high levels of air pollution. [8]<br />
*One-third of China's land has been polluted by acid rain. [8]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
*'''Increased economic growth:''' China’s real GDP is estimated to have grown at about 9 percent in 2008, while the country has registered average growth of 10 percent between 2000 and 2008. [2] This growth has fueled prodigious consumption of energy, including its own abundant supplies of coal, and, increasingly imported oil and natural gas. China is a large consumer of fertilizer and pesticides. The consumption of these industrial and agricultural products leads to air, water and land pollution and other forms of environmental damage. With increasing affluence, China’s per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs increased four-, four- and eightfold, respectively, between 1978 and 2002. This means more agricultural wastes, animal droppings, fish droppings, fish food and fertilizer for aquaculture, tending to increase terrestrial and aquatic pollution. Additionally, China’s transportation network and number of vehicles have grown explosively. [1] In short, China's explosive growth has been a leading driving factor in its environmental degradation.<br />
*'''Increase in the number of households:''' The number of households in China has grown almost three times as fast as its population during 1985-2000. The average household has decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people and because smaller households consume more resources per person, China’s rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size have had significant environmental consequences.[1] <br />
*'''Increased urbanization:''' China is becoming more urban. The urbanization rate of the country is projected to increase from 39% in 2002 to 60% by 2020. [8] Increase urbanization indicates increased new construction and development of new homes which in turn means increased consumption of building materials.<br />
*'''Failure to execute environmental policy:''' China has developed numerous environmental laws and policies, but most of them are just on paper. Moreover, many environmental laws and regulations were written largely piecemeal, lack effective implementation and evaluation of long-term consequences, and need a systems approach. In addition, environmental protection agencies lack sufficient authority, financial resources and manpower.[3] <br />
*'''Use of out-dated, polluting technologies:''' Many technologies in China are outdated, inefficient and highly polluting. [3]<br />
*'''Lack of public awareness and environmental education:''' Public environmental awareness is low, in part because China’s investment in education is less than half that of developed countries as a proportion of gross national production.[1] Low public awareness and environmental education mean that people are not aware of the extent of polluting activities and how increased consumption is harming the environment. <br />
*'''Prioritization of economic growth over sustainability:''' In China, when there are conflicts between environmental protection and economic development, the former often loses to the latter. Economic performance often overshadows environmental protection as a criterion for selection and promotion of government officials.[1] Most people think that environmental protection harms economic growth and do not recognize that environmental problems have already caused huge economic losses, severe social conflicts, enormous health costs and increased "natural" disasters (such as dust storms, floods, droughts). [3]<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*'''Alternative energy sources:''' China is increasingly looking to add add emission-free energy sources such as nuclear power and hydropower.[4]<br />
*'''Increased participation in environmental treaties:''' The Kyoto Protocol contains a provision that allows companies in developed countries to meet their emissions limits by investing in new, clean factories in developing countries. As a result in Kyoto's implementation, China is making huge investments in environmental projects and increasing the sustainability of its industries.[4]<br />
*'''Government environmental initiatives:''' Recognizing the environmental challenges the country faces, the Chinese government is hoping to build an environmentally-friendly society, and has set very ambitious environmental goals. By 2020, China plans to significantly improve environmental quality and ecological conditions.[3]<br />
*'''Increased public awareness:''' Public awareness for the environment has improved in China and the country has been pushing hard for cleaner production and sustainable development. <br />
*'''Adoption of green accounting:''' China is also designing and adopting a green accounting system that includes environmental costs in the calculation of gross domestic product (or Green GDP). [3] <br />
*'''Slowed economic growth:''' The global recession has caused the Chinese economy to slow down as the world's demand for its exports decrease. This slowed economic growth could slow down environmental degradation caused by export production activities.<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
*China's poor environmental situation will continue to cause great socioeconomic loss, increase the nation's health costs, cause more frequent and damaging natural disasters, and increase social inequities. Moreover, the country's explosive economic growth has drained much of the country's natural resources. Going forward the country must take the condition of its environment into consideration otherwise rising health concerns and an onslaught of environmental refugees may create great social unrest and major disruptions to the country's progress as a world economic power. <br />
*Having the world's largest population and fastest-growing economy means that China's actions heavily affect the rest of the world. China’s achievement of developed-world consumption standards will approximately double the world’s human resource use and environmental impact. Therefore China's continued economic growth and consumption activities will become a primary concern for the rest of the world. It is possible that international organizations may try to impose sanctions on China's development activities as these activities start to really impact the environment of neighboring countries.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
*http://www.zhb.gov.cn/english<br><br />
*http://www.cleanairnet.org<br><br />
*International Energy Agency(IEA)<br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
*1998 - China signs the Kyoto Protocol.[7]<br />
*2005 - Kyoto Protocol went into effect.<br />
*2007 - China unveiled a 62-page climate change plan and promised to put climate change at the center of its energy policy and insisted that developed countries had an “unshirkable responsibility” to take the lead on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and that the principle of "common but differentiated responsibility", as agreed up in the UNFCCC, should be applied. [6]<br />
*2008 - China surpassed the United States as the biggest emitter in the world of CO2 from power generation.[5]<br />
*2012 - The first phase of Kyoto's implementation which runs through 2012.<br><br />
*2020-2025 - Some scholars in environmental studies believe that China may need to deal with 20 to 30 million environmental refugees every year by the year 2020 or 2025. [8]<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
#[http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant.]<br />
#“China Country Analysis Briefs 2004,” http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html.<br><br />
#[http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future.]<br />
#“Domestic Oil and Gas Production: Pursuing a Principled Approach,” http://www.ppionline.org.<br><br />
#[http://www.cgdev.org/content/article/detail/16578/ Center for Global Development. 2008. China Passes U.S., Leads World in Power Sector Carbon Emissions - CGD]<br />
#[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6717671.stm BBC. 2007. China unveils climate change plan.]<br />
#[http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/news-article-China-Kyoto-Protocol.html China's Approves Kyoto Protocol<br />
#[http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/55/360.html Xinhua News Agency. 2001. China's Urbanization Rate to Grow to 60 percent in 20 Years]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Revision History:==<br />
#"Chinese Pollution Problems by Rapid Growth" created by Skparkb on 17-11-2005<br />
#Renamed "Increased environmental degradation" and updated by Johanna Little 18-09-2009</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Business_in_Society&diff=188153Business in Society2011-09-06T06:29:43Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description==<br />
As businesses expand their global reach, environmental footprints are everywhere around us and giant global corporations are emerging. It result in an increasingly level of societal suspicion about the effects on big business on society at large.<br />
<br />
In the 21st century the essence of doing business will move beyond simply creating shareholders wealth, which is mostly established by Anglo-Saxon economies. To borrow Milton Friedman's phrase, "the business of business is business” will extend its reach to other fields.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, as the Western economy is shifted towards a knowledge based economy it mainly consists of knowledge workers whom personal aims and motivations are different as during the 20th century. Therefore, businesses and how they do business has to move beyond creating shareholder value.<br />
<br />
Large companies must build social issues into strategy in a way that reflects their actual business importance. Such companies need to articulate their social contribution and to define their ultimate purpose in a way that is more subtle than "the business of business is business" and less defensive than most current CSR approaches.<br />
<br />
==Enablers==<br />
*Blurring boundaries between responsibilities and laws<br><br />
*Butterfly effect<br><br />
*Discontinuities in demographics and resources<br><br />
*Growing safety, security concerns; sensitivity to risk<br><br />
*Rising inequality <br><br />
*Shifting values, social norms<br><br />
*Ubiquity of technology<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors==<br />
*Corporations that do not comply with agreed conventions<br><br />
*Shareholder value<br><br />
*Global legislation in form of coventions and treaties<br><br />
*National goverments that do not comply with agreed conventions<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms==<br />
owing to pressure from the world community and corporate citizen, over the next ten years businesses will operate differently as they do now.<br />
<br />
==Experts==<br />
*EU<br><br />
*United Nations<br><br />
*National Governments<br><br />
*Research Institutes & Universities (CSR research)<br />
*Business Schools<br><br />
*The Economist<br><br />
*McKinsey<br><br />
<br />
==Timing==<br />
n/a<br />
<br />
==Web Resources==<br />
*Business Ehtics Magazine http://www.business-ethics.com/<br />
*Business Ethics' 100 Best Corporate Citizens for 2004 http://www.business-ethics.com/chart_100_best_corporate_citizens_for_2004.htm<br />
*Financial Times Report on Business & development - http://news.ft.com/cms/cff778cc-de70-11d9-92cd-00000e2511c8.html<br />
*Financial Times Report on Sustainable business - http://news.ft.com/reports/susbusiness2005<br />
*HBS Working Knowlegde on Social Enterprise http://hbswk.hbs.edu/topic.jhtml?t=nonprofit<br />
*INSEAD Knowledge - Business, Society & Environment - http://knowledge.insead.edu/theme.cfm?tid=4<br />
*The Economist Survey: Corporate Social Social Responsibility http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3555212<br />
*Wharton on Business Ethics - http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/index.cfm?fa=viewCat&CID=11</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_change_of_children_playing_sports_to_children_playing_videogames&diff=188152The change of children playing sports to children playing videogames2011-09-06T06:29:42Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>''Environmental driving force of [[ The Future of Technology in Secondary Education in 2020]]''<br />
== Description: ==<br />
Since the rise of the Nintendo 8-bit video games have been a part of society. Children who used to play a sport in front of their house with children from the neighbourhood can now play the same sports online with children all over the world. Since the 1960s, the number of overweight kids and adolescents in the United States has nearly doubled. Today, 10% of 2- to 5-year-olds and more than 15% of children between the ages of 6 and 19 are overweight. And a whopping 31% of adults are also obese. Studies indicate that overweight and obese adolescents have up to an 80% chance of becoming overweight and obese adults, especially if one or more parent has the same condition. This trend has been proven to be the same in Europe, so this is not a cultural thing.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
Ofcourse there are a lot more reasons why these changes occur but videogames are a part of it. Ironically there are different kind of theory's regarding this phenomenon. There are people who say that gaming is better then just watching T.V. becuase of the minimal activities while using a controller. And there are even cases of people losing weight while using a "dance-pad" designed to simulate dancing on a console.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
Without even talking about overweight people it is quite obvious to see that there are simularities and opportunities when looking at sports and videogames.<br />
<br><Br><br />
== Enablers: ==<br />
* The advance of information and communication technology<br><br />
* Parents who are also used to growing up with videogames<br><br />
* The growth of online gaming and the increasing amount of gaming tournaments<br><br />
<br />
* Video game playing introduces children to computer and information technology<br> <br />
* Games can give practice in following directions<br><br />
* Some games provide practice in problem solving and logic<br> <br />
* Games can provide practice in use of fine motor and spatial skills<br><br />
* Games can provide occasions for parent and child to play together<br><br />
* Players are introduced to information technology<br><br />
* Some games have therapeutic applications with patients<br><br />
* Family lifestyle<br><br />
* Marketing<br><br />
* Easy access for parent and child<br><br />
<br />
== Inhibitors: ==<br />
* Organizations against the gaming industry<br />
* Sportorganizations trying to keep encouraging young people to play sports<br />
* Active parents trying to combine both choices <br><br />
* Parents managing child’s media consumption <br><br />
* Game environments are often based on plots of violence, aggression and gender bias<br> <br />
* Organisations that rate videogames e.g.the Entertainment Software Rating Board (ESRB)<br><br />
* Customer education<br><br />
<br />
== Paradigms: ==<br />
* A new videogame culture <br><br />
* Advanced videogames are moving towards sports<br><br />
* Blending: combine entertainment with education<br><br />
* Reinforcement :reward system in achieving next level<br><br />
* Motivation: attractiveness<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
== Experts: ==<br />
* Marshal McLuhan, The Medium is the Massage<br />
* Nancy Morris, Media and Globalization: Why the State Matters<br />
* Monroe E. Price, Media and Sovereignty<br />
<br><br />
== Timing: ==<br />
The notion of the effects of media globalization emerged in 1960s - 1980s when NWICO (New World Information and Communication) literature critized the presence of foreign media, especially from the United States, as a threat to cultural autonomy in the developing world (Dorfman and Mattelart 1972; International Commission for the Study of Communication Problem).<br />
<br><br><br />
The trend of videogame being an individual game is changing to a more social and “connect to a network of a group of people”<br><br />
The analysis of time spend is declining e.g. A good majority now plays best sellers for relatively shorter duration 10 -20 Hours in contrast to 2005,where majority used play games for more than 100 hours.<br><br />
<br />
== WEB Resources: ==<br />
http://www.getupmove.com/media.html<br><br />
http://health.yahoo.com/news/46838<br><br />
http://my.webmd.com/content/article/84/98017.htm<br><br />
http://www.mediafamily.org/facts/facts_effect.shtml<br><br />
http://www.pamf.org/preteen/parents/videogames.html<br><br />
http://books.google.nl/books?id=sl-Hjf-gMyUC&pg=PA409&lpg=PA409&dq=paradigm+children+playing+videogames&source=bl&ots=EvQZ8ydW8I&sig=wRvVhQgHavsrk_omDa4nLuJ6Ze0&hl=nl&ei=13KzSovfJeWK4gaCvPl8&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=paradigm%20children%20playing%20videogames&f=false<br><br />
http://www.trendsspotting.com/blog/?p=333</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=E-paper_solution_instead_of_the_paper_work&diff=188151E-paper solution instead of the paper work2011-09-06T06:29:26Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Now, people are more and more worried about the running out of natural resources especially oil. And because of the problems like global warming and worldwide lack of water, protecting the resources like water and trees is also important. Because paper industry has a huge requirement for woods, people are now concerning some reforms in this industry in order to protect the forest. Moreover these reforms would also affect the publishing, entertainment and news industry. One solution is the E-paper solution using Internet to transfer the electronic version books and magazines.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- The development of technology both in software and hardware.<br><br />
- The global warming issue.<br><br />
- People realize the importance of protecting the forest.<br><br />
- The high possession of PC and PDA.<br><br />
- People now needs the latest information in this fast changing world.<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Not as convenient as paper work newspapers and magazines.<br><br />
- The copyright issues.<br><br />
- There is no best solution.<br><br />
- Heavily relying on computers causes issues like security, influences on human health and etc.<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Imagine accessing all latest information as you want, downloading whatever documents your want and reading them on your PDA or PC, E-paper solution provide us a method to get access more resources in a more convenient way. And this technology is developed mainly with the development of the Internet.It also avoids the huge damage to the forest based on the tradional paper based documents and newspapers. So this may help us slower the global warming trend and soil erosion.But this may also raise an issue of the impact to human health and enviornment from the radiation of the electronic reading devices. This will lead more alliance between the software company and the entertainment company, publisher, writers and journalists in the future.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
- Adobe<br><br />
- [http://www.cpsgsoftware.com/ CPSG providing solution for online newspaper]<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
N/A<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Acid_Rain&diff=188150Acid Rain2011-09-06T06:28:58Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
<i>"'Acid rain' is a broad term used to describe several ways that acids fall out of the atmosphere. A more precise term is acid deposition, which has two parts: wet and dry. <br />
<br />
Wet deposition refers to acidic rain, fog, and snow, and dry refers to acidic gases and particles.<br />
About half of the acidity in the atmosphere falls back to earth through dry deposition<br />
<br />
As this acidic water flows over and through the ground, it affects a variety of plants and animals. The strength of the effects depend on many factors, including how acidic the water is, the chemistry and buffering capacity of the soils involved, and the types of fish, trees, and other living things that rely on the water"</i> [1]. <br />
<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Sulfur dioxides (SO2)<br />
*Nitrogen oxides (NOx)<br />
*Power plants: In the US electricity generation is responsible for 2/3 of the SO2, and 1/4th of the NOx output.<br />
*Cars/Trucks: Most of the remaining SO2/NOx output is due to traffic.<br />
*Increasing power demand, both in home and gasoline, thus population growth is again an enabler.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*Home insulation<br />
*Power efficient/saving equipment<br />
*Environment friendly cars<br />
*Carpooling<br />
*Stricter government polution laws<br />
*Alternative energy sources<br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Before: Little was known on the effects of power generation and buring of fossile fuels.<br />
After: More knowledge in the effects of industry and electronic devices on the environment. How the extra SO2, and NOx emission have worsening effects on our habitat.<br />
Acid rain can cause serious issues between neighboring countries because sometimes the victims of the phenomena are not identical to its generator.<br />
Like Korea, people suffer from acid rain which is mixed with yellow dust in every spring. <br />
It is necessary to establish an reasonable international standard for disputes on such environmental issues. Otherwise it is likely to incur political tension between many countries.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
U.S. Environmental Protecting Agency, among the many other environmentologists.<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Industrialization.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
*[1] [http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/acidrain/ Clean Air Market Programs: Acid Rain]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_population&diff=188149Aging population2011-09-06T06:28:53Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
"Work in progress" door Marjoleine van der Zwan EMBA 09<br />
<br />
The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a social phenomenon in Europe characterized by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among native Europeans.[1]<br />
<br />
The population of Europe as a percentage of the world population is rapidly decreasing and is expected to decline over the next forty years. The "greying" of Europe specifically refers to the increase in the percentage of Europe's elderly population relative to its workforce.<br />
<br />
The average age of the population in Western Europe will increase significantly in the coming decades. Figure 1 gives the essence of the problem in the Netherlands (Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistieken - CBS).<br />
<br />
[[Image:Aging population 2010 - 2040.jpg]]<br />
<br />
The 65+ population in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2040 is expected to grow from 15% to 24%, whereas the 20-65 population is expected to decrease from 61% to 54%.<br />
<br />
The same trend can be observed in most of Western Europe. <br />
<br />
Aging population is a driving force, which, for example, is driving Europe to accept Turkey into the EU. With the improved health care, the population of the world is living longer, which means that the world needs more resources to support this growing part of the population. The birth rate however is diminishing and resources are therefore limited and scarce.<br />
<br />
High expecation is placed on new technological innovations to provide solutions for confronting the problems caused by aging population.<br />
<br />
===Past Population Trends===<br />
World annual population growth rates probably averaged less than 0.6% during the 18th and 19th centuries, passed the 1% rate around 1920, and peaked at 2.04% in the late 1960s (UN, 1998). This peak coincided with growing international concern about population growth in general. World population reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, and 5 billion in 1987, reaching the 6 billion level shortly before the millenium (UN, 1998).<br><br />
The population of the developing regions increased from 1.71 billion in 1950 to 4.59 billion in 1996, with annual growth rates dropping from a peak of 2.5% in 1965 to 1.7% presently. The population of the more-developed regions increased from 813 million to 1.18 billion over the same period, with annual growth rates dropping from 1.2% in 1950 to 0.4% presently (UN, 1998). Population distribution and growth thus differ markedly among major geographic regions. Latin America and the Caribbean was the fastest growing region between 1950 and 1970, followed by Africa, and this is projected to remain the case until 2050 (UN, 1998). <br />
<br><br />
===The global balance of population has shifted significantly between 1950 and 1995. It will change even more dramatically between now and 2050.===<br />
<br><br />
Europe's share of the world population has sharply declined from 21.7 to 12.8 percent - Africa's share, on the other hand, has increased from 8.9 to 12.7 %. <br />
Today, both Europe and Africa are each home of about one eighth of the world population. This will change significantly in the future. Europe's share of the global population will shrink to about 6.8 percent in 2050. Africa's share will grow to 21.8 percent. <br><br />
<br><br />
Hence, one century of population growth will completely reverse Europe's and Africa's position: Europe's share of the global population in 2050 will be the same as that of Africa in 1950 - and vice versa. If the UN medium variant projections turn out to be correct (and there is no sign that they may be wrong) we have to expect a dramatic change in the global balance of population: A much bigger share of the world population will live in Africa South of the Sahara. <br><br />
In only some 50 years Western Africa, for instance, will have the same population as all of Europe. Eastern Africa will have many more people than all the countries of South America, the Caribbean and Oceania combined. <br />
<br><br />
[[Image:populationtrends.png]]<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Technogical advances in medicine<br />
<br />
- Better living conditions in the Developing world<br />
<br />
- Specialized care, ie geriatrics<br />
<br />
- nursing homes<br />
<br />
- home care<br />
<br />
- telemonitoring<br />
<br />
- more media attention<br />
<br />
- More health awareness<br />
<br />
- Better food quality<br />
<br />
- More Hospital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)<br />
<br />
- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years<br />
<br />
- Discovery of new drugs<br />
<br />
- Decrease in price of expensive drugs due to competition / patent break<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Extending the retirement age another 10 years so people will have to work more & retire later<br />
<br />
- A global decease (certain flu) could attacks the weaker people (the elderly)<br />
<br />
- Population of developing countries and immigration<br />
<br />
- The Cost of aging population will become so that health care fin. Systems based on solidarity can not function anymore.<br />
<br />
- a birth gulf<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this population growth is likely to come to peak and then decline in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
In order to maintain our current 'care society', an increase of tax payment and pension payment will have to be implemented. It is therefore doubtful whether the current care society can be maintain.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
* United Nations <br />
* US Department of Health and Human Services<br />
* Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
* Gregory Abowd's Aware Home initiative at Georgia Tech (ubicomputing for elderly people)<br />
* Dutch government department of Health welfare and sports<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
[http://www.niapublications.org/engagepages/nutrition.asp Good Nutrition: It’s a Way of Life made by Ikk Hur]<br />
<br />
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Europe#Overall_Trends<br />
<br />
UNEP Growing for a green new deal. http://www.grida.no. URL:http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?src=/Climate/ipcc/emission/051.htm#anc3. Accessed on: 19/92009<br />
<br />
Scienceforglobalinsight. http://iiasa.ac.at</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increase_in_Global_Dimming&diff=188148Increase in Global Dimming2011-09-06T06:28:44Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Global dimming is the trend in which the earth's surface keeps getting less exposure to solar light. Measurements of less light coming through our atmosphere have long been neglected by climatologists because it is hard to believe when you already know about [[Global Warming]].<br />
The amounts of global dimming varies greatly between countries, in which the Soviet Union tops at 30%, Brittain had just 16% and the US suffered from 20% from 1950-1990. Globally there was a 1 to 2 percent sunlight drop per decade.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Air pollution: Particles reflecting light back into space<br />
*Air pollution (particles): Clouds get darker, bigger droplets can attach because of air polution/particles.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*International treaties and agreements on reducing air polution: We have been seeing an actual decrease in air polution. Also some preliminary measurements have shown a decreasing global dimming effect in some countries.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
*Before: [[Global Warming]] is caused by an excess CO2 in the air. However, the amount of CO2 in the air should be responsible for a higher temperature increase than currently measured. Conclusion: Greenhouse effect is not so dependent on CO2 emission.<br />
*After: Global dimming decreases the average earth's temperature. This might explain why temperatures have not risen accordingly with CO2 levels. Conclusion: Greenhouse effect is in fact very dependent on CO2 emissions, but global dimming has been mitigating its effect.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Climatologists.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Measurements from 1950s to 1990s. Industrialization was largely responsible. Further up to date data might follow.<br />
<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
*[1] [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm Why the Sun seems to be 'dimming']<br />
*[2] [http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0%2C13026%2C1108853%2C00.html Goodbye Sunshine]<br />
*[3] [http://www.bp.com BP Global Warming Solutions ] <br />
*[4] [http://www.thegalileosyndrome.com Ecosystem - Global Warming ] <br />
*[5] [http://www.willyoujoinus.com Join the Energy Debate on Global Warming]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Introduction_of_greenhouse_gases_emissions_trading&diff=188147Introduction of greenhouse gases emissions trading2011-09-06T06:28:27Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The Kyoto Protocol intended to thwart global warming was ratified by Russia in November 2004 and will come into force in February 2005. <br />
<br />
Greenhouse gas emissions – a new commodity <br />
<br />
Parties with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol have accepted targets for limiting or reducing emissions. These targets are expressed as levels of allowed emissions, or “assigned amounts,” over the 2008-2012 commitment period. The allowed emissions are divided into “assigned amount units” (AAUs). <br />
<br />
Emissions trading, as set out in Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol, allows countries that have emission units to spare - emissions permitted them but not "used" - to sell this excess capacity to countries that are over their targets.<br />
<br />
Thus, a new commodity was created in the form of emission reductions or removals. Since carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, people speak simply of trading in carbon. Carbon is now tracked and traded like any other commodity. This is known as the "carbon market."<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Economic benefit for the government and companies<br />
*New technology for energy <br />
*Alternative form of energy<br />
*Renewal energy<br />
*Diplomatic policy (Especially of the U.S.A)<br />
*People's awareness for Greenhouse issue<br />
*Climate change & global warming<br />
*Health concerns<br />
*Depletion of resources<br />
*Strict legislation<br />
*Natural Disasters<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* American foreign policy , <br />
* Suspicion of greenhouse gases effect, <br />
* Conflict of diplomatic policy and benefit,<br />
* Cost of developing and maintaining sustainable processes<br />
* Low cost manufacturing is the key for developing countries to maintain their high growth rate<br />
* Increase in consumption / production (not sustainable)<br />
* Strong lobby for big corporations (Oil&Gas / Chemical / etc.)<br />
* Lack of social pressure on governments<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Old: The prevention of global warming is the cost for business activities. <br><br />
New: The prevention of global warming is the opportunity for business activities.<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Sources for additional information about this driving force. (if you have found people, put the links to them)<br />
==Timing:==<br />
*1997 The Kyoto Protocol adoption <br><br />
*2004 The Kyoto Protocol ratification <br><br />
*2009 Copenhagen (COP 15): United Nations Climate Change Conference<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
[http://http://unfccc.int/2860.php] - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change<br />
<br><br />
<br />
[http://unfccc.int/resource/kpstats.pdf] - Kyoto Protocol Status of Ratification <br><br />
<br />
http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/mechanisms/emissions_trading/items/2731.php<br />
<br />
http://en.cop15.dk/about+cop15</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Voice-recognition_system&diff=188146Voice-recognition system2011-09-06T06:28:09Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
When considering voice recognition, firstly a distinction should be made between <i>Speaker Recognition</i> and <br />
<i>Speech Recognition</i>. The difference is that Speaker Recognition means that a digital device (such as a computer, PDA or mobile phone) recognises the person who is speaking to it, thus recognising the sound of a persons voice and being able to identify it and Speech Recognition is recognising what is being said, thus translating spoken words into written words.<br />
<br />
To differentiate further, 2 subparts are recognised in Speaker Recognition; <i>Speaker Verification</i> (1 voice is compared to 1 template of that voice) and <i>Speaker Authentication</i> (1 voice compared to N templates of stored voices).<br />
<br />
The term <i>Voice recognition</i> is often used for the combination of Speaker Recognition and Speech Recognition. This is when the recognition system is trained to a particular speaker - as is the case for most desktop recognition software, hence there is an aspect of speaker recognition, which attempts to identify the person speaking, to better recognise what is being said.<br />
<br />
Various technologies have been developed to process and store voice prints. They include frequency estimation, hidden Markov models, Gaussian mixture models, pattern matching algorithms, neural networks, matrix representation and decision trees. Ambient noise levels can impede both collection of the initial and subsequent voice samples. Noise reduction algorithms can be employed to improve accuracy, but incorrect application can have the opposite effect.<br />
<br />
Nowadays, many computer software programs have built-in voice recognition software, which will turn spoken word into written words. These often require a person to pre-read a certain amount of text (this process is called enrollment) to be able to subsequently recognize that specific voice.<br />
<br />
Speaker recognition is used a s a way of identifying an individual. Examples of uses are; to gain access to a secure system, to identify individuals on recordings in detective/police work, <br />
<br />
Speech recognition has a wide range of possible uses. Some of which are:<br />
* Health care; reduce the amount of medical transcriptionists and enable search options in Electronic Medical Records<br />
* Military; reducing pilot workload by using voice commands for certain tasks, as a training aid when training air traffic controllers<br />
* Aiding people with disabilities; assist people with limited use of their hands (also RSI-sufferers); enable deaf telephony; assist people with learning disabilities (problems with thought-to-paper communication)<br />
* Automatic translation<br />
* Robotics<br />
* Telecommunications and Video-games<br />
* Internet-based services<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
* Technological improvement of voice-recognition software<br />
* Increased capacity of computers<br />
* Illiteracy; increased need for computer applications for illiterate people<br />
* Increased attention for needs of people with disabilities<br />
* Increased availability of computers worldwide<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
* The cost of developing voice recognition software<br />
* Other biometric technologies (such as fingerprinting, iris-scans)<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
In the future voice recognition could make other forms of identification obsolete. It will surpass other forms of biometrics, such as fingerprinting and iris scans, as the technology is simpler.<br />
<br />
Increased use of computers and internet will speed up the development of voice-recognition software.<br />
<br />
Voice-recognition could make the keyboard and mouse obsolete.<br />
<br />
Voice-recognition can be very helpful to various services in regions where there is a high illiteracy rate, as users do not have to type to activate the services. This could be used in banking, healthcare, public administrations etc.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
[http://www.tmaa.com/aboutbillmeisel.html William S. Meisel, Ph.D., president of TMA Associates]<br><br />
[http://ttic.uchicago.edu/~klivescu/ Karen Livescu Ph.D., assistant professor Toyota Technical Institute Chicago]<br> <br />
[http://groups.csail.mit.edu/sls/people/glass.shtml James R. Glass Ph.D., Principal Research Scientist at CSAIL]<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
1870 This technology really began with Alexander Graham Bell's inventions in the 1870s. <br><br><br />
1952 Bell Communications Research started to investigate speech recognition with zero crossing<br><br><br />
1959 Kyoto University, Japan, developed “speech-recognition typewriter” utilizing the technology Bell Communication research developed. <br><br><br />
1964 IBM presents an early Speech recognition device, the IBM Shoebox, at the New York's World Fair<br><br><br />
1970s Russia and Japan simultaneously developed DP matching method, which normalizes utterance time length by using dynamic programming<br><br><br />
1980s Two distinct types of commercial products were available. The first offered speaker-independent recognition of small vocabularies. It was most useful for telephone transaction processing. The second, offered by Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, Dragon Systems, and IBM, focused on the development of large-vocabulary voice recognition systems so that text documents could be created by voice dictation.<br><br><br />
1990s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, U.S, started dictation program for speech recognition, which realized Q&A voice recognition system by n-Gram method<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
* http://www.tmaa.com/ <br />
* http://www.recognitiontechnologies.com/book.html<br />
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_recognition<br />
* http://www.spokenproof.com/<br />
* http://cslu.cse.ogi.edu/HLTsurvey/ch1node9.html<br />
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_recognition<br />
* http://www.abilitynet.org.uk/content/factsheets/pdfs/Voice%20Recognition%20Software%20-%20An%20Introduction.pdf<br />
* http://www.speaker-recognition.org/<br />
* http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3937/is_200401/ai_n9383074/<br />
* http://groups.csail.mit.edu/sls/sls-blue-noflash.shtml</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Increase_in_the_speed_of_internet_connection&diff=188145The Increase in the speed of internet connection2011-09-06T06:27:42Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
WiFi transmission rates have increased rapidly since the conception of the IEEE 802.11 standard in 1997, from the original 1Mbps (megabit per second) to over 54Mbps today. In addition much greater speeds, of around 200Mbps, are on the horizon and are expected from the 802.11n standard currently in development. Much of this bandwidth gain can be attributed to the high level of research focus which has been concentrated on the 802.11 protocol, itself driven by WiFi's widespread success with consumers. Improvements in high-speed radio-frequency transmission understanding have enabled developers to continually build-upon previous concept to achieve more effective solutions to problems such as multi-path fading and error-detection and correction. In addition to the popular 'a','b' and 'g' standards, many other iterations of 802.11 have been proposed, each focusing on specific limitations to be addressed: however it is these main standards which provide the most useful improvements for consumers.<br />
The speed increases have been a driving force in increasing the attractiveness of WiFi for consumers: as the speed increases, and in-line with increasing bandwidth demands, many new applications for this technology have opened up. Consumers and hobbyists have developed WiFi community WANs/MANs which are capable of transmitting high-quality multimedia broadcasts, and business users have seen the possibility of using WiFi to replace their corporate LANs which have traditionally been limited to high-bandwidth wired installations.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Increasing attention of research on the 802.11 standard<br />
*Increased support by major industry leaders - e.g. Intel, Apple<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*Radio-frequency transmission difficulties to consider:<br />
**Multi-path fading<br />
**Signal to noise ratios<br />
**Interference - electromagnetic and physical<br />
**Usable transmission distance<br />
*Regulatory limits on radio channels available<br />
*Regulatory limits on power levels for transmission<br />
*Error detection and correction mechanisms reduce usable payload size<br />
*Security fears<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Emerging paradigms associated with the emergence of IEEE 802.11x<br />
*Wi-Fi is the now standard name assosciated with 802.11x, and official WiFi Certification is now common<br />
*Hotspots (areas of WiFi coverage) have appeared throughout the world, often as a result of wireless communities<br />
*Wireless communities usually implement wide-area wireless networks to reduce cost/complexity in the 'last-mile'<br />
*Wardriving is the activity of searching for Hotspots i.e. travelling and picking up transmissions<br />
*Elektrosmog is being significantly contributed to by WiFi as it increases in popularity and as new standards employ multiple channels to increase speed<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
*IEEE - http://www.ieee.org<br />
*Intel - http://www.intel.org<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
*Original IEEE 802.11 standard established in 1997 - 1Mbit/s and 2Mbit/s<br />
*802.11b amendment in 1999 - 11Mbit/s<br />
*802.11a also amended in 1999 but only really available in 2001, after 802.11b - 54Mbit/s at 5GHz<br />
*802.11g released in 2003 - 54Mbit/s at 2.4GHz<br />
*802.11n expected in March 2009 - will probably deliver 248 Mbit/s<br />
*802.11y 2008 54Mbit/s at 3.7Ghz<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
*http://www.ieee802.org/11<br />
*http://www.intel.com/personal/do_more/wireless/wifi.htm<br />
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/802.11<br />
<br />
<br><br><br><br><br />
<br />
<br />
To return to the home page of the Future of Communication click[[The_future_of_communication_in_2015]]<br><br><br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Aging_Europe&diff=188144Aging Europe2011-09-06T06:27:34Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
The touchstone of every elaboration on Europe's future is globalisation and how to respond. Obviously globalisation and all it comes along with it matters. And by and large Europeans are not adapting very well. Yet the biggest problem facing their continent (and their welfare states) is not the result of a new twist in the new emerging playing field. It would exist even if Europeans had the world stage to themselves. The problem is demography, the fact that the old continent is growing even older. (Source: [http://economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=5056302&subjectid=348927] Economist)<br />
<br />
According to new research conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) the composition of Europe’s demographic will undergo dramatic changes. By 2025, one in five Europeans will be more than 65 years old, up from 16 percent in 2002. This will result in a big gap between an increasing number of retired citizens and a decreasing number of working citizen. Retired citizen tend to consume their savings as working citizen create most of those savings. Therefore, the absolute level of savings will plunge across most of Europe. That is a threat to Europe’s high living standards and economic well-being. <br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
*Advance medicine and preventions<br />
*High living standards and conditions<br />
*More health awareness<br />
*Declining birth of new babies<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
*Productivity growth in European countries<br />
*European Labour Market Reform, more flexible labour policies and increase the incentives to work<br />
*Support and facilitate very talented people not only the people whom we think need help.<br />
*Attract talented people from around the world.<br />
*Create a climate of entrepreneurship.<br />
*Attenuate immigration policies for talented people whom like to stay in Europe.<br />
*Create world-class educational institutions.<br />
*Getting more woman into the workforce<br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
The aging of European populations will threaten living standards and prosperity. A new sort of welfare state needs to arise. However, the European members are still scattered on which fundamentals they have to build this new welfare state. A model based on individualism and collective facilities only accessible for the more prosperous civilians like the American model or a more Northern Europe (Scandinavian) approach, a model based on solidarity and unity with collective facilities for all its civilian. <br />
<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
*United Nations<br />
*EU<br />
*Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development<br />
*Centraal burau voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends<br />
<br />
<br><br />
==Timing:==<br />
*2000: Trend identified<br />
*2005: Several parties and governmental institutions have done research on this matter and they all show that action is needed.<br />
*2010: Period in which the steepest increase of people turning 65 years or older is expected<br />
*2020 - 2025: One in five Europeans will be more than 65 years old.<br />
<br><br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
*[http://www.antiaging-europe.com/ Anti-aging Europe]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_05/b3918011.htm BusinessWeek - Global Aging]<br />
*[http://mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.aspx?ar=1613&L2=7&L3=10 McKinsey The economic impact of an aging Europe ]<br />
*[http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/demographics/index.asp MGI The Coming Demographic Deficit: How Aging Populations Will Reduce Global Savings]<br />
*[http://www.oecd.org/searchResult/0,2665,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html OECD]<br />
*[http://economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6800723 The Economist - The economic power of women]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=6802551 The Economist - Women and the world economy]<br />
*The New York Times - An Aging Europe May Find Itself on the Sidelines [http://www.forourgrandchildren.org/pressroom/articles/2003-06-29-An_Aging_Europe.pdf 1] [http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30D15FC3C5E0C7A8EDDAF0894DB404482 2]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Nanotechnology&diff=188143Nanotechnology2011-09-06T06:27:16Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
Nanotechnology is the science and technology of building electronic circuits and devices from single atoms and molecules. If nanotechnology continues to develop, a new manufacturing technology could develop which will let us inexpensively build computer systems with quantities of elements that are molecular in both size and precision and are interconnected in complex and highly idiosyncratic patterns. Characteristic dimensions are less than about 1,000 nanometers.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
- Advancements in science<br />
<br />
- Advancements in technology<br />
<br />
- Research<br />
<br />
- Need for smaller & lighter devices & circuits<br />
<br />
- Need for less expensive devices & circuits<br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
- Funding<br />
<br />
- Commercial viability<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology<br />
<br />
http://www.foresight.org/EOC/EOC_Chapter_5.html#section01of06<br />
<br />
Foresight Institute: Preparing for Nanotechnology<br />
<br />
http://www.foresight.org/</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Mobility&diff=188142Mobility2011-09-06T06:26:53Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>== Mobility ==<br />
<br><br />
'''Description'''<br>According to some sources, mobility is one of the important facotrs to focus on, especially when considering the future of the internet in a business context.<br> But, what is the actual implication of this? Gartner Group is convinced that there is more to "successful mobility" than what is often focused on: The transmitting (speed and quality) of voice and data. The success will very much depend in on how users use and interact with devices, what and how information is processed. Mobility will be a technological factor that can have an impact of the future of the internet, but the question that remains is how to articulate the benefits of this mobility and from that also, how fast it will move. <br><br />
<br><br />
'''Enablers'''<br> With increasing technological speed on smaller devices and web availability, we can "carry" the internet whereever we are and meet the internet in locations we haven't discovered before.<br> <br />
- Size, speed, and demand seem to be the large enablers.<br> <br />
- Application development<br> <br />
- Technological development<br><br />
<br><br />
'''Inhibitors'''<br><br />
- Psycological issues. e.g. Ethical issues (fear of being "watched"), Technological "fear"<br />
- The trend of not wanting to become mobile and thereby constantly available <br><br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
'''Paradigms'''<br><br />
For many of us, the internet is roughly somehow connected to sitting by a computer, turning it on, opening a browser and entering an URL address. With more mobility, the internet can become increasingly more invisible for us, being implemented in many devices and applications, that we have not imgained yet. That can create many options and possibilities, both for personal and business use.<br><br />
Another paradigm is that mobility is a positive charged word. The more mobility the better!! However, this mobility and the trend that we all in our professional life are carrying and using an increasing amount of mobile devices, has the effect that we all suddenly are expected to be reachable anywhere at anytime 24-7, which in turn has large impacts on our personal life and the work/life balance.<br />
<br><br><br />
'''Experts''': Mainly, the sources are from the web resources and links are to be found below. <br />
<br />
'''Web Resources:'''<br><br />
http://www4.gartner.com/Init <br><br />
http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/canada-apec/mobility-en.asp <br><br />
http://www.apec.org/apec/apec_groups/committees/committee_on_trade/informal_experts_group_on_business_mobility.html<br><br></div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Artificial_Neural_Networks&diff=188141Artificial Neural Networks2011-09-06T06:26:15Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[China becoming the largest economy]]<br />
<br />
==Description:==<br />
<br />
According to the CBP (Centraal Plan Bureau) the demand for health care in The Netherlands will increase with 40% between 2000 and 2015. To be able to supply the required healthcare improved efficiencies and tailor-made health care at home are required. Technological innovations in health care equipment and ICT innovations are essential to improve the efficiencies and treatment at home. New developments are telecare, telemedicine, e-health and domotica. <br />
<br />
The objectives of innovation in health care are:<br />
- increased efficiency<br />
- reduced costs<br />
- increased quality and tailor-made health care<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
<br />
1. Aging population <br><br />
2. Technological innovations <br><br />
3. Developments in ICT <br><br />
4. Open markets in health care <br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
<br />
1. Too much focus on technology, to little focus on patient. (It works, but does is help the patient?) <br><br />
2. A critical mass needs to adopt an innovation <br><br />
3. Lack of time, communication and financial resources <br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
<br />
Due to the aging population in The Netherlands the demand for health care will increase. Technological innovations and innovations in ICT can make health care more efficient, cheaper, more patient-friendly and better tailor-made. The open markets in health care make effective implementations of innovations in health care possible.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
1. Engineers <br><br />
2. ICT specialists <br><br />
3. Technological experts <br><br />
4. Managers in health care <br><br />
5. Health insurance experts <br><br />
6. Patient representatives<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
<br />
www.zorgmarketingplatform.nl <br><br />
www.managementkennisbank.nl</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Foreign_Exchange_Rate_of_China&diff=188140Foreign Exchange Rate of China2011-09-06T06:25:32Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
China has record a huge trade surplus for a couple of years. The U.S. insisted that a trade surplus be caused by the manipulation of foreign exchange rates by China government. China government changed its foreign exchange policy from fixed system to variable system. But actually the new system also almost fixed system. <br><br />
<br />
In Q4 2008, the new Forex Regulations are aimed to provide the new direction to address the changes in the foreign investment environment, rapid development in China's financial sector, widening imbalance in international trade accounts, growing trends of Chinese companies' outbound investments, speculation in RMB valuation, and many other macro economic and political considerations in the last decade.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
If China accepts the U.S. demanding regarding foreign exchange policy,<br><br />
-Execution of firm’s restricting<br><br />
-Development of service industry<br><br />
-Recognition of free trade country position<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
-Weak economic growth<br><br />
-Decrease a trade surplus<br><br />
-Increase unemployment<br><br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
China government can adjust its competitiveness using the foreign exchange rates. If China accepts the U.S. demanding, China loses the very powerful tool to control its economic. And also that means China close to the world economic condition.<br><br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
http://www.iie.com/publications/wp/wp04-1.pdf<br><br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
*This is main issue between China and the U.S. during the APEC meeting.<br><br />
*The former Forex Regulations were promulgated in 1996 and subsequently amended in 1997. Over the last decade, China has undergone significant transformation in her economy. In addition, there have been fundamental changes in the foreign investment environment, rapid development in China's financial sector, widening imbalance in international trade accounts, growing trend of Chinese companies' outbound investments, as well as speculation in RMB valuation. These factors, coupled with many other macro economic and political considerations, have made revamp of the former Forex Regulations become more imminent than ever.<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
#[http://us.ft.com]<br />
#[http://www.pwccn.com/home/eng/chinatax_news_nov2008_14.html#sub_1 "New direction of foreign exchange policy of China", PricewaterhouseCoopers]<br />
#[http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=84736 "China: China Encourages Outbound Investments", Mondaq]</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Continuing_the_low_growth_of_korea%27s_economy&diff=188139Continuing the low growth of korea's economy2011-09-06T06:25:19Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Description:==<br />
After showing over-par growth of 6.3 percent in 2002, the south korean economy standard to lose<br> its growth momentum. Korea's robust growth in 2002 had been sustaind by <br>the overall resiliency of domestic demand, even as worldwide economic conditions deteriorated <br>and korean experts fall.<br><br />
However this engine of korean growth has weakened recently.<br><br />
Korea lags behind advanced nations in hi-tech industry, and China in middle and low priced products now. <br>If it can not find another breakthrough, this low growth trend will be prolonged.<br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
Korea's economy is heavily dependent on oil imports and recently oil price hikes.<br><br />
North korea withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and threatened to reprocess plutonium<br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
South korea's economic growth rate is projected to be around 4% in 2005, lower than the 4.6% recorded in 2004<br><br />
Private consumption is expected to slowly recover to the mid 2% range<br><br />
Politics has to focus on the economic recovery.<br><br />
Power of Korean people to unite when they face difficulties.<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
Before: had a high rate, around 7 percent, of economic growth.<br><br />
After: Economic growth rate declined into around 4 percent.<br>It needs to prepare for future new business and advanced aged society.<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
From terrorist attacks, 9.11 and war in iraq to 2007<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
http://www.dallasfed.org<br><br />
www.asiapacificbusiness.ca/</div>Daniel@dtn.nethttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Increasing_influence_of_Seoul%27s_economic_condition_on_the_overall_Korean_economy&diff=188138Increasing influence of Seoul's economic condition on the overall Korean economy2011-09-06T06:25:02Z<p>Daniel@dtn.net: </p>
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<div>==Description:==<br />
Seoul is at center of the national economy, playing a key role in the free flow of national resources and capital. This is attested by the fact that Seoul accounts for 48.3% of the nation's bank deposits and 50% of bank loans. Also, the vast majority of headquarters of banks, stock and insurance companies are all concentrated in Seoul.<br />
<p></p><br />
With brisk economic activities, Seoul is a city filled with energy and vitality. As the Seoul’s economy goes, the nation’s economy goes.<br><br />
<br />
==Enablers:==<br />
o There is a wide range of distribution channels and facilities to connect consumer citizens with manufacturers. Also, Seoul has an efficient transportation system, which makes it easy to distribute goods and services within the country and to neighboring markets in Asia. <br><br />
o Seoul City government has been implementing a wide range of supportive policies, financially and administratively, for small and medium businesses. Total 700 billion won of funds will be raised to foster small businesses. <br><br />
o Among 5.1 million people of working ages, 97.3% were employed, demonstrating a very high employment rate compared to most other capital cities in the world. <br><br />
o Seoul is situated at the crossroads of two geopolitically very important economic axes; it is in the very center of the Korean peninsula linking the Pacific region to Eurasia, and the center of the strategic belt of Japan, Korea and China across the Yellow Sea. <br><br />
<br />
==Inhibitors:==<br />
o The cost of living in Seoul, is much higher than that of many other cities at home and abroad and Seoul is the tenth most expensive city to live in among the 150 major cities in the world. <br><br />
o Amid the slowly declining economic conditions, labor strikes are increasing as a result of the on-going corporate restructuring both in the private and public sectors. <br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Paradigms:==<br />
With over 10 million people in the city and 23 million around metropolitan area, Seoul functions as an "industrial incubator", nurturing information technology & financial service industries, and is also the center of banking, securities and insurance for Korea.<br />
<br />
==Experts:==<br />
Ministry of Finance & Economy (english.mofe.go.kr), National Statistical Office (www.nso.go.kr), Small & Medium Business Administration (www.smba.go.kr)<br />
<br />
==Timing:==<br />
Seoul Olympics (July, 1988) <br><br />
Korea-Japan World Cup (June, 2002)<br><br />
Sangam Digital Contents Center & Theme Park opening (Dec, 2007)<br><br />
Seoul International Financial Center opening (2010)<br><br />
<br />
<br />
==Web Resources:==<br />
english.mofe.go.kr <br><br />
econo1.seoul.go.kr<br><br />
english.lgeri.co.kr<br><br />
www.bok.or.kr<br><br />
www.koreaeconomy.org<br></div>Daniel@dtn.net