https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Blub&feedformat=atomScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]2024-03-19T04:21:27ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.37.0https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22618Ron Sneijers2007-04-17T22:26:45Z<p>Blub: /* Replace */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. In conjunction with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other (Friedman: The world is Flat, 2005). As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first luxurious brand with its roots in an emerging market and that can make it abroad, will not only affect the competitive dynamics of the global apparel industry. I foresee, it will move far beyond this single industry. Respectively, it will be the first brand rising out emerging markets followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets across industries. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creation of the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can actually make it abroad.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br><br><br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br><br><br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22617Ron Sneijers2007-04-17T22:23:01Z<p>Blub: /* Change */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first luxurious brand with its roots in an emerging market and that can make it abroad, will not only affect the competitive dynamics of the global apparel industry. I foresee, it will move far beyond this single industry. Respectively, it will be the first brand rising out emerging markets followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets across industries. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creation of the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can actually make it abroad.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br><br><br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br><br><br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22616Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:58:07Z<p>Blub: /* Growth */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br><br><br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br><br><br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22615Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:57:46Z<p>Blub: /* Change */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br><br><br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22614Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:57:25Z<p>Blub: /* New */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22613Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:57:10Z<p>Blub: /* Replace */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge.<br><br><br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22612Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:56:30Z<p>Blub: /* Object of the future */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge. <br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22611Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:56:17Z<p>Blub: /* Object of the future */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge. <br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22610Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:56:03Z<p>Blub: /* Object of the future */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
[[Image:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg]]<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge. <br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg&diff=22609File:ShanghaiTangFashion.jpg2007-04-10T19:55:17Z<p>Blub: Shanghai Tang Advertisement</p>
<hr />
<div>Shanghai Tang Advertisement</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=22608Ron Sneijers2007-04-10T19:53:50Z<p>Blub: /* Object of the future */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[[Image:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg]]<br />
<br />
http://blog.sneijers.net/shanghaitanglogo.jpg<br />
<br />
http://blog.sneijers.net/uploaded_images/shanghaitangfashion-706212.jpg<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge. <br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg&diff=22607File:Shanghaitanglogo.jpg2007-04-10T19:52:29Z<p>Blub: Shanghai Tang Logo</p>
<hr />
<div>Shanghai Tang Logo</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=21539Ron Sneijers2007-03-15T21:02:32Z<p>Blub: /* Profile */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
<br />
http://blog.sneijers.net/shanghaitanglogo.jpg<br />
<br />
http://blog.sneijers.net/uploaded_images/shanghaitangfashion-706212.jpg<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge. <br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ready_When_You_Are&diff=17574Ready When You Are2006-05-16T22:35:23Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workplace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
== Conceptual overview==<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Timeline Developments==<br />
'''<br><br />
<br />
'''2006 - 2008''' <br><br />
*The actual realisation of your work is still limited to your office building and your home. <br />
*Organisational structures (matrix organisations) and how people are working are still not very different as twenty years ago.<br />
*Lack of global technology standards<br />
*Introduction of HSDPA <br />
*Three dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2008 - 2010''' <br><br />
*Acceptance of European constitution enables acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws<br />
*Lower transaction costs open up the possibility of new kinds of sharing of information and collaboration within corporations<br />
*The market of collaboration software is booming (start-ups)<br />
*Six dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax <br />
*Technology divergence<br />
*Old-fashioned organisational structures causes friction with the emergence of the creative class <br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2010 - 2012''' <br><br />
*New organisational structure adapted to the creative class<br />
*Decentralisation of office locations across Europe<br />
*Shift towards the “Open Business” model (collaborate both inside and outside the organisation)<br />
*The typical headquarter as we know it now simply disappears<br />
*Work is still performed at offices or homes<br />
*Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices across Europe<br />
*Workers collaborate in cross-functional teams with colleagues at different geographical locations<br />
*Favourable landscape regarding the European internal market<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015''' <br><br />
*Number of culture clashes within companies increases <br />
*People struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU<br />
*Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of “Open Business”<br />
*Work is still performed at fixed decentralised office locations<br />
*Collaboration across Europe require flexible working times<br />
*Workforce mobility does not lead in higher productivity<br />
*Mobilisation of work instead of moving the people around<br />
*Majority of workers hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software <br />
*Physical contact prevails above working from anywhere, anytime.<br />
*In- and inter-company travel of workers increases<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Ready When You Are==<br />
'''<br><br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=LIACs_2006_Scenarios&diff=17375LIACs 2006 Scenarios2006-05-15T09:31:17Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div><p align="center"><br />
welcome to the LIACs 2006 Scenario site.<br />
<br />
Please put your group members and your scenario title here.<br />
</p><br />
<br />
<table border="1" width="400" align="center"><br />
<caption><b>Group List for ICT Planning</b></caption><br />
<tr><td><br />
Group 0 Scenario: [[Future of the Bottom-Up Internet]]<br><br />
Group 0 Members:<br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Jim]]</li><br />
<li>[[Andrew Li]]</li><br />
<li>[[Robert Sparnaaij]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><br />
<tr><td><br />
Group 1 Scenario: [[Future of Google]]<br><br />
Group 1 Members: <br />
<br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Remigius Barendse]]</li><br />
<li>[[Paul Nguyen]]</li><br />
<li>[[Matt Stolwijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ning Xu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Asli Akilli-Cavusoglu]]<br />
</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 3 Scenario: [[Future of Internet Television]]<br><br />
Group 3 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Simon Liu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Zhikai Xu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Zhen ni]]</li><br />
<li>[[Tsoe Loong Li]]</li><br />
<li>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/User:Brianchiu Brian Chiu]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 4 Scenario: [[Future of Location Based Services]]<br><br />
Group 4 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Fabian Ifland]]</li><br />
<li>[[Reza Ladchartabi]]</li><br />
<li>[[Werner Heijstek]]</li><br />
<li>[[Egon Gleisberg]]</li><br />
<li>[[Amarantha Clairmont]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 5 Scenario: [[Future of Advertising]]<br><br />
Group 5 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Willem de Ruiter]]</li><br />
<li>[[Sven Blom]]</li><br />
<li>[[Klaas-Jan Molendijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Chen Li]]</li><br />
<li>[[Chaitu Satbhai]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 6 Scenario: [[Future of Intellectual Property]]<br><br />
Group 6 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Sandhya Lalloesingh]]</li><br />
<li>[[Yue Zhang]]</li><br />
<li>[[Aarti Khoesial]]</li><br />
<li>[[Min Yin (Casey) Yap]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ashwina Soekhoe]]</li><br />
<br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 7 Scenario: [[Future of Workplace]] <br><br />
<br />
Group 7 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Arjan Hannink]]</li><br />
<li>[[Jasper Odijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ron Sneijers]]</li><br />
<li>[[Sander van den Belt]]</li><br />
<li>[[Wojtek Chowanski]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr></table></div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=17374Future of Workspace2006-05-15T09:30:43Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workplace Page has been moved! ]</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=17373Future of Workspace2006-05-15T09:30:31Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
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<br />
==Timeline Developments==<br />
<br />
* Europe moves along as it is currently is as there are no changes in the labour laws and mobility and flexibility of the workforce deteriorates.<br />
* Spending on infrastructure projects is decreased. Public transporation projects fall apart and the environment is negetively affected.<br />
* EU finds it harder to compete against the west and especially Asia as no significant econmic growth is observed and labour regulation reform is at a standstill.<br />
* Health indicators, quality of life and life expectancy plumet as the environment deteriorates.<br />
* Mentallity of the workforce remains unchaged to the idea of adapting to new working realities and requirements, thus Europe becomes less competative.<br />
* Europe becomes insignificant in world affairs as the economy just barely tags along.<br />
* Russia refuses to join the EU and signs multiple trade agreements with China.<br />
<br />
Arjan<br />
* technology developments in the field of mobile transmission, handsets, voip, etc are on a rollercoaster ride enhanced by technological developments in asia<br />
* the usa finally manages to standardise it's mobile technology through all of its states to improve it's communication infrastrcture, which urges mobile manufactures and telcos worldwide to do the same<br />
* economic growth of the eu comes under pressure due to high competition in the far east.<br />
* socialist forces like those observed in the france student protests in 2006 prevent any labour liberalisation vital for europe's flexibility and competitiveness<br />
* uprising and rebellion in several russian provinces including czenchna and dagestan, military struggles within georgia and between armenia and azerbeidjan, the continuous reign of force by the belarus dictatorship, and the reelection of the ukraine right-wing president who was forced to leave office after the orange revolution cause headaches for the european and form a heavy burden on its funds<br />
* attention is shifted away from the environment as economic hardship is foreseen, causing deterioriating environment, ultimately leading to abandoning of the kyoto protocol and european emission standards<br />
* traffic congestion increases, negatively contributing to the mobility of workforce<br />
<br />
Jasper<br />
* European companies struggle as their American and Asian competitors bring management and performing business to the next level. Their professionals are real mobile workforces which seem to be everywhere, all the time.<br />
* As the environment deteriorates more and more, people become more hesistant to travel. Mobility of society decreases. <br />
* The slack state of the labor laws creates differences between the Eastern and Western members of the EU.<br />
<br />
<br />
ron<br />
*Workspaces allow mobility of work and mobility of the workplace (virtual organisations) rather that mobility of people. This creates no need for a high mobility of the workforce in terms of moving physically from a to b.<br />
*Businesses that reinventing themselves with respect to all technological innovations that support doing business anytime, anywhere, anyplace will move to places where they can find the right people. It is not a matter of competing against new economic powers as China, Russia, Brazil and India it is a matter of creating a global supply chain. From time memorial, Europe’s competencies and capabilities is dealing with cultural differences as the world is globalising more and more different nationalities and cultures can be find at the top positions in corporations. If Europe can vitalise its core capabilities and competences again they can manage and steer these global supply chains. Corporations will move people around where they are needed, therefore the workplace is more affected on how corporations will develop as on ow Europe will struggle its way in the 21st century.<br />
<br />
Sander<br />
*The state of technology is safe enough to have mobile workspaces. Major cities are creating public places which have all the facilities for people to be able to work their.<br />
<br />
===The Waiting Game===<br />
<br />
There is a crisis. After twenty years, the international agreement to reduce the emission of green house gases has expired. Interim studies have shown that no positive and significant environmental effects were achieved by the Kyoto protocol. The European Union has spent over one hundred billion euros and was the most outspoken proponent of this initiative. Studies released by NASA show the steadily increasing temperature of the sun is the primary reason for the melting of the ice caps and the global warming phenomenon. With hard data in hand, scientists around the world concede the ineffectiveness of the protocol. The European Space Agency launches BrightStarI satellite towards the sun to obtain more conclusive results. Europe is once again playing catch up. <br />
<br />
The protocol did have positive aspects. The billions spent were on green parks, eco friendly buildings, sound transportation infrastructure, and a public trained in energy conservation. In 2009, Europe faces the most critical challenge. A collapsing ice cap near Greenland produces an underwater wave comparable to a tsunami. The New Waterway barrier in the Netherlands is breached when the four meter high waves strike. The western part of Holland along the North Sea is underwater. Millions are displaced.<br />
<br />
Public workspaces are supported by technological convergence of mobile operators around the world. Vodaphone acquires Verizon Wireless in the United States. UMTS II standard is rolled out in Europe as a safer alternative to the current UMTS. With no significant costs for the changes, the thirty billion investment is saved. Nokia and Sony Ericcson release handsets, which rival the capabilities of laptop computers. The abundant network bandwidth allows for video phone conversations to be the norm. Teleco operators slash prices to gain customers in a stagnant European market.<br />
<br />
The European Union fails to arrive at an agreement for a unified workforce. Individual member governments set their own laws governing the employment of cheaper eastern workers. With pressure from the public, no new labor legislation limiting worker rights is passed. European businesses become very uncompetitive as their ability to quickly adapt to market changes is negatively affected by labor laws. Major companies set a employment freeze. Contract based employment becomes the norm. <br />
<br />
Businesses push for labor market reform. European parliament is too busy dealing with issues of unity and the labor situation remains the same. Companies introduce new business models. The technology is ready for complete virtual organizations to exist. The headquarters of a company is only a mailbox. Software as a service allows for virtual organizations to operate without any infrastructure. Meetings take place virtually.<br />
<br />
With all of the technology ready, Europeans are not able to adjust to the changing demands of business. The current lifestyle interferes with the realities of virtual organizations. However, the younger generation is the driver for change. English language education is rolled out starting in kinder garden in all European member states. The Dutch embrace the virtual workspace model from the onset. Faced with a catastrophic disaster, the government operates very efficiently to restore the economy and improve the quality of life. Will it take a disaster in all of Europe for changes to take place?</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ready_When_You_Are&diff=17371Ready When You Are2006-05-15T09:28:38Z<p>Blub: </p>
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<br />
== Conceptual overview==<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Summary==<br />
'''<br><br />
<br />
'''2006 - 2008''' <br><br />
*The actual realisation of your work is still limited to your office building and your home. <br />
*Organisational structures (matrix organisations) and how people are working are still not very different as twenty years ago.<br />
*Lack of global technology standards<br />
*Introduction of HSDPA <br />
*Three dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2008 - 2010''' <br><br />
*Acceptance of European constitution enables acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws<br />
*Lower transaction costs open up the possibility of new kinds of sharing of information and collaboration within corporations<br />
*The market of collaboration software is booming (start-ups)<br />
*Six dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax <br />
*Technology divergence<br />
*Old-fashioned organisational structures causes friction with the emergence of the creative class <br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2010 - 2012''' <br><br />
*New organisational structure adapted to the creative class<br />
*Decentralisation of office locations across Europe<br />
*Shift towards the “Open Business” model (collaborate both inside and outside the organisation)<br />
*The typical headquarter as we know it now simply disappears<br />
*Work is still performed at offices or homes<br />
*Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices across Europe<br />
*Workers collaborate in cross-functional teams with colleagues at different geographical locations<br />
*Favourable landscape regarding the European internal market<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015''' <br><br />
*Number of culture clashes within companies increases <br />
*People struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU<br />
*Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of “Open Business”<br />
*Work is still performed at fixed decentralised office locations<br />
*Collaboration across Europe require flexible working times<br />
*Workforce mobility does not lead in higher productivity<br />
*Mobilisation of work instead of moving the people around<br />
*Majority of workers hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software <br />
*Physical contact prevails above working from anywhere, anytime.<br />
*In- and inter-company travel of workers increases<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Ready When You Are==<br />
'''<br><br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Catalyst_for_Change&diff=17370Catalyst for Change2006-05-15T09:27:43Z<p>Blub: </p>
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<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workplace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
[[Image:Futureworkplacescenario1.gif]]<br />
<br />
==Timeline Developments==<br />
<br />
<BR>2006<BR><br />
* Premature elections in France under pressure of student protests over the proposed liberalization of labour laws bring a socialist government in power<br />
* Blackberry wins the RIM trial, and is en route to become the new business standard for European mobile solutions.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2007<BR><br />
* Historical loss of the labour party in the UK, rumours about the new anti-European policy of the conservative government start immediately<br />
* Socialist governments in France, Italy (Prodi), and Spain (Zapatero) vow to put a halt of the entrance of cheap labour from Eastern Europe and succeed in passing a European bill on this topic.<br />
* Microsofts’ Origami system finds its first large European client: Deutsche Post starts to use it for parts of its DHL subsidiary. This will enable better planning of package delivery.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2008<BR><br />
* Mobile office solutions are being used more and more. Vodafone succeeds for the first time in history to roll out a product simultaneously across Europe: its new 3G UMTS 2.0 PC connect card, bundled with an unlimited data bundle for €100,- per month.<br />
* After the European adoption of one GSM standard (instead of three), negotiations start for the adoption of one 3G (and possibly 4G) standard across the EU.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2009<BR><br />
* German car manufacturers suffer from the policy of the Christian Democrat government and start to plan the movement of manufacturing facilities further east.<br />
* Windows Mobile 6 is released, which offers a single platform for PDA’s and Smartphones while integrating Exchange and 3rd party software applications. It offers advanced 3G support and comes in the European package with built in Galileo support for sophisticated Location Based Services.<br />
* The use of PC data cards takes off as T-Mobile and Orange come with pan-European solutions to compete with Vodafone’s offer.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2010<BR><br />
* Strikes and strong opposition enforce premature elections in Germany where the socialist coalition achieves a big victory over Merkel.<br />
* After walking away from negotiations regarding the discount the UK has on European monetary contribution the UK announces it will strengthen its Anglo-Saxon ties.<br />
* Europe announces it has come to a 3G standard: UMTS, while it opts to accept (a variation of) HSUPA as new 4G development standard.<br />
* Eastern European governments officially lodge a protest against the limitation of labour movement.<br />
* The 24/7 worldwide economy demands more flexibility from many people. As organisations are not ready for structural changes they introduce of virtual communities to the workplace.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2011<BR><br />
* Microsoft buys a license on all Blackberry services and patents. This enables the offer of a complete, windows based, mobile office.<br />
* Employees are complaining more and more about the 9-to-5 mentality of many large corporations.<br />
* Strong contradictions are starting to become clear between the blue and white collar workforce. As the knowledge workers seek increasingly more mobility and flexibility the blue collar workers, backed by the socialist governments, frantically hold on to the past.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2012<BR><br />
* People can get finally rid of the multiple devices they carry around. Since UMTS has become the standard and blackberry and windows are integrated multiple sophisticated PDA’s and Smartphones are available. Samsung manages to introduce the first 10 megapixel camera in a phone, which also incorporates a 25gig microdrive.<br />
* Major phone manufacturers (even Nokia) start to adopt Microsoft’s mobile platform.<br />
* The European socialist movement limits the will and opportunities for companies to change and become more flexible.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2013<BR><br />
* Minimal investments in public transportation start to become visible as traffic congestion reaches an all time high. This results in office workers more and more trying to avoid rush hours, which leads to more teleworking from home and other public places like libraries, as wireless internet at fast speeds is now widely available in a lot of large cities.<br />
* Microsoft integrates Blackberry services in its Origami 2.0 system. This system is en route to become the de facto standard for all kind of businesses in the need of using mobile computer technology, such as railways (conductors), express services (couriers), and etcetera.<br />
* Developments in the workplace seem to come to a standstill as investments are slowing down and government agencies refuse to change basically anything at all besides the standard modernization.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2014<BR><br />
* Heavy competition forces Philips and other electronic giants to do major layoffs.<br />
* Vodafone is once again the first mover, as it starts investing in an advanced HSUPA based 4G network, starting near the large cities in the UK and France.<br />
* Microsoft acquires Blackberry<br />
* Office workers increasingly value their life similar to their work and demand more free time and flexibility choosing their own working hours, which is now theoretically possible due to the multinational character of a lot of businesses. However, this is virtually impossible as socialist governments block any liberalisation of the labour laws that may also affect their support from the blue collar workforce.<BR><BR><br />
<br />
2015<BR><br />
* Developments in the flexibility of European major businesses seem to come to a standstill due to the policy of the socialist governments and the limp EU government as they struggle with the economic situation and try to avoid bankruptcy.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Catalyst for Change==<br />
<br />
<BR><br />
<br />
While the EU is still recovering from the failure of the European Constitution the developments in the national politics of the Member States continue. Premature elections in France under pressure of student protests over the proposed liberalization of labour laws bring a socialist government in power, while the Labour party in the UK suffers a historical loss. Rumours about the new anti-European policy of the conservative government start immediately. This will be one of the few conservative voices in Europe. The socialist governments in Spain and Italy team up to put a halt to Eastern European labour entering the EU to protect the jobs of their socialist grassroots support. With help of other socialist votes they succeeded in passing the bill through the European Parliament, which probably will have a negative impact on the European unity.<br />
<br />
<br />
In the United States the long trial between Blackberry and RIM has come to an end, in favour of Blackberry. Following the wide adoption of this device in the USA it is becoming increasingly popular in Europe, especially within businesses. The success of the Blackberry seems to be part of a trend for more sophisticated mobile offices in the workplace. Vodafone anticipates on this by succeeding for the first time in history to roll out a product simultaneously across Europe: its new 3G UMTS PC connect card, which comes with an unlimited data bundle for €100 per month while Microsoft succeeds in selling a first series of working Origami systems to Deutsche Post, which will use it for parts of its DHL subsidiary. The fancy devices will enable faster package delivery.<br />
<br />
<br />
The European Union, although struggling with the discrepancies that start to become clear between the Member States, starts negotiations on the adoption of one 3G (and possibly 4G) standard across the EU, following the success of the European adoption of one GSM standard instead of three. This results in the adoption of UMTS as 3G standard, and (a variation of) HSUPA as 4G development standard. Sadly this seems to be the only good news from the politicians. German car manufacturers come under pressure of the policy of the Christian Democrat government and start to plan the movement of manufacturing facilities further east. This leads to strikes and strong opposition, which eventually lead to premature elections resulting in a socialist victory over Merkel. The socialist movement in Europe now has a major voice in the European policymaking. The first results become already visible as the conservative UK government walks away from negotiations regarding the discount of the UK on European monetary contribution. They announce they will strengthen their Anglo-Saxon ties. The Eastern European Member States start some opposition as well, and lodge an official protest against the limitation of labour movement across borders.<br />
<br />
<br />
The 24/7 worldwide economy demands more flexibility from many people. As organisations are not yet ready for structural changes they introduce virtual communities to the workplace. More temporarily, non-structural, measures are supported by introduction of pan-European PC data cards by T-Mobile and Orange to compete with Vodafone’s offer. Microsoft also has quite some interesting news for technological capabilities in the workplace. It introduces Windows Mobile 6 and announces the acquiring of a license on all Blackberry services and patents. These will be soon made available via update for both Mobile 5 and 6.<br />
<br />
<br />
Strong contradictions are starting to become clear between the blue and white collar workforce. As the knowledge workers seek increasingly more mobility and flexibility the blue collar workers, backed by the socialist governments, frantically hold on to the past. Minimal investments in public transportation start to become visible as traffic congestion reaches an all time high. This results in office workers more and more trying to avoid rush hours, which leads to more teleworking from home and other public places like libraries, as wireless internet at fast speeds is now widely available in a lot of large cities. However major corporations are barely ready for any changes in the flexibility, and those that are capable and willing to change are largely restrained by the measures of the socialist governments. This results in the paradox of employees complaining about the 9-to-5 mentality of their employer. Albeit the continuous improvement of technological opportunities the developments in the workplace seem to come to standstill as investments are slowing down and government agencies refuse to change basically anything at all besides the standard modernisation.<br />
<br />
<br />
The purchase of the Blackberry license was only the first step of Microsoft. As it now acquired the entire Blackberry company it continues to introduce its functionality, the next target being the Origami 2.0 system. This system is en route to become the de facto standard for all kind of businesses in the need of using mobile computer technology, such as railways (conductors), express services (couriers), and etcetera. As major phone manufacturers accept Microsoft’s Windows Mobile 6 Blackberry system with open arms (even Nokia) people can get finally rid of the multiple devices they carry around. Since UMTS has become the European 3G standard and Windows and Blackberry have been integrated multiple sophisticated PDAs and Smartphones have become available. Samsung manages to introduce the first 10 megapixel camera in a smartphone, which also incorporate a 25GB microdrive. More technology-candy is to come as Vodafone starts investing in an advanced HSUPA-based 4G network, starting in the large cities in the UK and France (via its subsidiary SFR).<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Developments in the flexibility of European major businesses seem to come to a standstill due to the policy of the socialist governments and the limp EU government as they struggle with the economic situation and try to avoid bankruptcy. Philips and other electronic giants seem to be the first real victims as they have to execute major layoffs. Office workers increasingly value their life similar to their work and demand more free time and flexibility choosing their own working hours, which is now theoretically possible due to the multinational character of a lot of businesses. However, this is virtually impossible as socialist governments block any liberalisation of the labour laws that may also affect their support from the blue collar workforce. Europe and its businesses have seemed to reach a dead-lock situation that limits any future economic prosperity and structural changes in the workplace.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workplace&diff=17369Future of Workplace2006-05-15T09:25:15Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
Please download the [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)] of the System Map to analyse it in detail.<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 - Catalyst for Change===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[Catalyst for Change]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2 - Ready When You Are===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* More Flexible state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Ready When You Are]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions - The Waiting Game===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[The Waiting Game]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=LIACs_2006_Scenarios&diff=17368LIACs 2006 Scenarios2006-05-15T09:24:57Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div><p align="center"><br />
welcome to the LIACs 2006 Scenario site.<br />
<br />
Please put your group members and your scenario title here.<br />
</p><br />
<br />
<table border="1" width="400" align="center"><br />
<caption><b>Group List for ICT Planning</b></caption><br />
<tr><td><br />
Group 0 Scenario: [[Future of the Bottom-Up Internet]]<br><br />
Group 0 Members:<br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Jim]]</li><br />
<li>[[Andrew Li]]</li><br />
<li>[[Robert Sparnaaij]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><br />
<tr><td><br />
Group 1 Scenario: [[Future of Google]]<br><br />
Group 1 Members: <br />
<br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Remigius Barendse]]</li><br />
<li>[[Paul Nguyen]]</li><br />
<li>[[Matt Stolwijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ning Xu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Asli Akilli-Cavusoglu]]<br />
</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 3 Scenario: [[Future of Internet Television]]<br><br />
Group 3 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Simon Liu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Zhikai Xu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Zhen ni]]</li><br />
<li>[[Tsoe Loong Li]]</li><br />
<li>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/User:Brianchiu Brian Chiu]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 4 Scenario: [[Future of Location Based Services]]<br><br />
Group 4 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Fabian Ifland]]</li><br />
<li>[[Reza Ladchartabi]]</li><br />
<li>[[Werner Heijstek]]</li><br />
<li>[[Egon Gleisberg]]</li><br />
<li>[[Amarantha Clairmont]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 5 Scenario: [[Future of Advertising]]<br><br />
Group 5 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Willem de Ruiter]]</li><br />
<li>[[Sven Blom]]</li><br />
<li>[[Klaas-Jan Molendijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Chen Li]]</li><br />
<li>[[Chaitu Satbhai]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 6 Scenario: [[Future of Intellectual Property]]<br><br />
Group 6 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Sandhya Lalloesingh]]</li><br />
<li>[[Yue Zhang]]</li><br />
<li>[[Aarti Khoesial]]</li><br />
<li>[[Min Yin (Casey) Yap]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ashwina Soekhoe]]</li><br />
<br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 7 Scenario: [[Future of Workspace]] <br><br />
[[Future of Workplace]]<br />
Group 7 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Arjan Hannink]]</li><br />
<li>[[Jasper Odijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ron Sneijers]]</li><br />
<li>[[Sander van den Belt]]</li><br />
<li>[[Wojtek Chowanski]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr></table></div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Worksplace&diff=17367Future of Worksplace2006-05-15T09:24:36Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
Please download the [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)] of the System Map to analyse it in detail.<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 - Catalyst for Change===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[Catalyst for Change]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2 - Ready When You Are===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* More Flexible state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Ready When You Are]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions - The Waiting Game===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[The Waiting Game]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=LIACs_2006_Scenarios&diff=17365LIACs 2006 Scenarios2006-05-15T09:24:06Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div><p align="center"><br />
welcome to the LIACs 2006 Scenario site.<br />
<br />
Please put your group members and your scenario title here.<br />
</p><br />
<br />
<table border="1" width="400" align="center"><br />
<caption><b>Group List for ICT Planning</b></caption><br />
<tr><td><br />
Group 0 Scenario: [[Future of the Bottom-Up Internet]]<br><br />
Group 0 Members:<br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Jim]]</li><br />
<li>[[Andrew Li]]</li><br />
<li>[[Robert Sparnaaij]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><br />
<tr><td><br />
Group 1 Scenario: [[Future of Google]]<br><br />
Group 1 Members: <br />
<br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Remigius Barendse]]</li><br />
<li>[[Paul Nguyen]]</li><br />
<li>[[Matt Stolwijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ning Xu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Asli Akilli-Cavusoglu]]<br />
</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 3 Scenario: [[Future of Internet Television]]<br><br />
Group 3 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Simon Liu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Zhikai Xu]]</li><br />
<li>[[Zhen ni]]</li><br />
<li>[[Tsoe Loong Li]]</li><br />
<li>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/User:Brianchiu Brian Chiu]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 4 Scenario: [[Future of Location Based Services]]<br><br />
Group 4 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Fabian Ifland]]</li><br />
<li>[[Reza Ladchartabi]]</li><br />
<li>[[Werner Heijstek]]</li><br />
<li>[[Egon Gleisberg]]</li><br />
<li>[[Amarantha Clairmont]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 5 Scenario: [[Future of Advertising]]<br><br />
Group 5 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Willem de Ruiter]]</li><br />
<li>[[Sven Blom]]</li><br />
<li>[[Klaas-Jan Molendijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Chen Li]]</li><br />
<li>[[Chaitu Satbhai]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 6 Scenario: [[Future of Intellectual Property]]<br><br />
Group 6 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Sandhya Lalloesingh]]</li><br />
<li>[[Yue Zhang]]</li><br />
<li>[[Aarti Khoesial]]</li><br />
<li>[[Min Yin (Casey) Yap]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ashwina Soekhoe]]</li><br />
<br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr><tr><td><br />
Group 7 Scenario: [[Future of Workspace]] <br><br />
[[Future of Worksplace]]<br />
Group 7 Members:<br><br />
<ul><br />
<li>[[Arjan Hannink]]</li><br />
<li>[[Jasper Odijk]]</li><br />
<li>[[Ron Sneijers]]</li><br />
<li>[[Sander van den Belt]]</li><br />
<li>[[Wojtek Chowanski]]</li><br />
</ul><br />
</td></tr></table></div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=17362Future of Workspace2006-05-15T09:22:01Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
Please download the [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)] of the System Map to analyse it in detail.<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 - Catalyst for Change===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[Catalyst for Change]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2 - Ready When You Are===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* More Flexible state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Ready When You Are]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions - The Waiting Game===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[The Waiting Game]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ready_When_You_Are&diff=17358Ready When You Are2006-05-15T09:17:09Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workspace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
== Conceptual overview==<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Summary==<br />
'''<br><br />
<br />
'''2006 - 2008''' <br><br />
*The actual realisation of your work is still limited to your office building and your home. <br />
*Organisational structures (matrix organisations) and how people are working are still not very different as twenty years ago.<br />
*Lack of global technology standards<br />
*Introduction of HSDPA <br />
*Three dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2008 - 2010''' <br><br />
*Acceptance of European constitution enables acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws<br />
*Lower transaction costs open up the possibility of new kinds of sharing of information and collaboration within corporations<br />
*The market of collaboration software is booming (start-ups)<br />
*Six dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax <br />
*Technology divergence<br />
*Old-fashioned organisational structures causes friction with the emergence of the creative class <br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2010 - 2012''' <br><br />
*New organisational structure adapted to the creative class<br />
*Decentralisation of office locations across Europe<br />
*Shift towards the “Open Business” model (collaborate both inside and outside the organisation)<br />
*The typical headquarter as we know it now simply disappears<br />
*Work is still performed at offices or homes<br />
*Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices across Europe<br />
*Workers collaborate in cross-functional teams with colleagues at different geographical locations<br />
*Favourable landscape regarding the European internal market<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015''' <br><br />
*Number of culture clashes within companies increases <br />
*People struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU<br />
*Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of “Open Business”<br />
*Work is still performed at fixed decentralised office locations<br />
*Collaboration across Europe require flexible working times<br />
*Workforce mobility does not lead in higher productivity<br />
*Mobilisation of work instead of moving the people around<br />
*Majority of workers hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software <br />
*Physical contact prevails above working from anywhere, anytime.<br />
*In- and inter-company travel of workers increases<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Ready When You Are==<br />
'''<br><br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ready_When_You_Are&diff=17355Ready When You Are2006-05-15T09:13:36Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workspace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
== Conceptual overview==<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Summary==<br />
'''<br><br />
<br />
'''2006 - 2008''' <br><br />
*The actual realisation of your work is still limited to your office building and your home. <br />
*Organisational structures (matrix organisations) and how people are working are still not very different as twenty years ago.<br />
*Lack of global technology standards<br />
*Introduction of HSDPA <br />
*Three dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2008 - 2010''' <br><br />
*Acceptance of European constitution enables acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws<br />
*Lower transaction costs open up the possibility of new kinds of sharing of information and collaboration within corporations<br />
*The market of collaboration software is booming (start-ups)<br />
*Six dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax <br />
*Technology divergence<br />
*Old-fashioned organisational structures causes friction with the emergence of the creative class <br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2010 - 2012''' <br><br />
*New organisational structure adapted to the creative class<br />
*Decentralisation of office locations across Europe<br />
*Shift towards the “Open Business” model (collaborate both inside and outside the organisation)<br />
*The typical headquarter as we know it now simply disappears<br />
*Work is still performed at offices or homes<br />
*Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices across Europe<br />
*Workers collaborate in cross-functional teams with colleagues at different geographical locations<br />
*Favourable landscape regarding the European internal market<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015''' <br><br />
*Number of culture clashes within companies increases <br />
*People struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU<br />
*Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of “Open Business”<br />
*Work is still performed at fixed decentralised office locations<br />
*Collaboration across Europe require flexible working times<br />
*Workforce mobility does not lead in higher productivity<br />
*Mobilisation of work instead of moving the people around<br />
*Majority of workers hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software <br />
*Physical contact prevails above working from anywhere, anytime.<br />
*In- and inter-company travel of workers increases<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Stories ==<br />
'''<br><br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=17354Future of Workspace2006-05-15T09:11:56Z<p>Blub: /* Scenario 2 */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
Please download the [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)] of the System Map to analyse it in detail.<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[Catalyst for Change]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* More Flexible state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Ready When You Are]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[Technology is ready, but Europe, businesses and people are hesitant]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ready_When_You_Are&diff=17353Ready When You Are2006-05-15T09:11:50Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workspace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Summary==<br />
'''<br><br />
<br />
'''2006 - 2008''' <br><br />
*The actual realisation of your work is still limited to your office building and your home. <br />
*Organisational structures (matrix organisations) and how people are working are still not very different as twenty years ago.<br />
*Lack of global technology standards<br />
*Introduction of HSDPA <br />
*Three dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2008 - 2010''' <br><br />
*Acceptance of European constitution enables acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws<br />
*Lower transaction costs open up the possibility of new kinds of sharing of information and collaboration within corporations<br />
*The market of collaboration software is booming (start-ups)<br />
*Six dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax <br />
*Technology divergence<br />
*Old-fashioned organisational structures causes friction with the emergence of the creative class <br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2010 - 2012''' <br><br />
*New organisational structure adapted to the creative class<br />
*Decentralisation of office locations across Europe<br />
*Shift towards the “Open Business” model (collaborate both inside and outside the organisation)<br />
*The typical headquarter as we know it now simply disappears<br />
*Work is still performed at offices or homes<br />
*Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices across Europe<br />
*Workers collaborate in cross-functional teams with colleagues at different geographical locations<br />
*Favourable landscape regarding the European internal market<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015''' <br><br />
*Number of culture clashes within companies increases <br />
*People struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU<br />
*Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of “Open Business”<br />
*Work is still performed at fixed decentralised office locations<br />
*Collaboration across Europe require flexible working times<br />
*Workforce mobility does not lead in higher productivity<br />
*Mobilisation of work instead of moving the people around<br />
*Majority of workers hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software <br />
*Physical contact prevails above working from anywhere, anytime.<br />
*In- and inter-company travel of workers increases<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Stories ==<br />
'''<br><br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Europe_ready_and_flexible,_businesses_and_people_are_not&diff=17349Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not2006-05-15T09:08:40Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workspace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Summary==<br />
'''<br><br />
<br />
'''2006 - 2008''' <br><br />
*The actual realisation of your work is still limited to your office building and your home. <br />
*Organisational structures (matrix organisations) and how people are working are still not very different as twenty years ago.<br />
*Lack of global technology standards<br />
*Introduction of HSDPA <br />
*Three dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2008 - 2010''' <br><br />
*Acceptance of European constitution enables acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws<br />
*Lower transaction costs open up the possibility of new kinds of sharing of information and collaboration within corporations<br />
*The market of collaboration software is booming (start-ups)<br />
*Six dominant mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax <br />
*Technology divergence<br />
*Old-fashioned organisational structures causes friction with the emergence of the creative class <br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2010 - 2012''' <br><br />
*New organisational structure adapted to the creative class<br />
*Decentralisation of office locations across Europe<br />
*Shift towards the “Open Business” model (collaborate both inside and outside the organisation)<br />
*The typical headquarter as we know it now simply disappears<br />
*Work is still performed at offices or homes<br />
*Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices across Europe<br />
*Workers collaborate in cross-functional teams with colleagues at different geographical locations<br />
*Favourable landscape regarding the European internal market<br />
<br><br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015''' <br><br />
*Number of culture clashes within companies increases <br />
*People struggle with the rigorous integration of the EU<br />
*Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of “Open Business”<br />
*Work is still performed at fixed decentralised office locations<br />
*Collaboration across Europe require flexible working times<br />
*Workforce mobility does not lead in higher productivity<br />
*Mobilisation of work instead of moving the people around<br />
*Majority of workers hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software <br />
*Physical contact prevails above working from anywhere, anytime.<br />
*In- and inter-company travel of workers increases<br />
<br><br />
<br />
<br />
'''<br />
== Stories ==<br />
'''<br><br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Europe_ready_and_flexible,_businesses_and_people_are_not&diff=17342Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not2006-05-15T09:02:04Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workspace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Stories<br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Europe_ready_and_flexible,_businesses_and_people_are_not&diff=17304Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not2006-05-15T00:43:19Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Workspace Back to the workplace homepage]<br />
<br />
[[Image:20060513_Scenario2.gif]]<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:20060513_Scenario2.gif&diff=17303File:20060513 Scenario2.gif2006-05-15T00:41:20Z<p>Blub: Workplace Scenario 2 Diagram</p>
<hr />
<div>Workplace Scenario 2 Diagram</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=17302Future of Workspace2006-05-15T00:39:37Z<p>Blub: /* Scenario 2 Assumptions */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
Please download the [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)] of the System Map to analyse it in detail.<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[People are ready, business / Europe is not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* More Flexible state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[Technology is ready, but Europe, businesses and people are hesitant]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Europe_ready_and_flexible,_businesses_and_people_are_not&diff=17301Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not2006-05-15T00:33:41Z<p>Blub: /* Stories / possible developments */</p>
<hr />
<div>'''2006 – 2008'''<br />
In 2006 and 2007 the corporate organisational chart (matrix organisations) and how people work are still not very different as twenty years ago. Only office workers are better equipped nowadays with technological more advanced devices. People are still going from their home to their office building to perform their jobs everyday. Meetings are still taking place in the meetings rooms of the office or via telephone conference. The actual realisation of most of the work is still limited to your office building and your home. The lack of global technology standards in the fields of wireless internet also requires workers to work either at the office or at home. <br />
<br />
At the beginning of 2007, the market for mobile devices is still very fragmented which leads to a large scale introduction of another mobile technology protocol HSDPA across the most mobile technology advance countries (UK, Scandinavian, Germany and the Netherlands). At the end of 2007 there are three dominant mobile protocols in Europe respectively: GPRS, UMTS and HSDPA.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2008 – 2010'''<br />
In mid 2008, a renewed and revitalised European constitution is being accepted by all European Union members. This opens up a window of new economic opportunities for the creation of more economical synergy between Western and Eastern Europe members. This new constitution enables the acceleration of a high liberalisation of labour laws and the creation of a favourable internal market climate across Europe. Most offices in Eastern Europe get connected with Western Europe via a fixed high bandwidth internet network. The lower transaction costs wrought by the internet open up the possibility of new ways of sharing information and collaboration among corporate that was unthinkable in the previous century. <br />
<br />
Plenty of internet start-ups in Europe are starting to penetrate the market of collaboration software. This new generation of collaboration software can be used on multiple devices (mobile, PC, PDA, Tablet PC, etc) all supported with video capabilities via the internet. In the same year Gartner estimates the worldwide collaboration software market in 2015 to reach a market value of €7 billion. The emergence of an arsenal of autonomous internet start-ups within the collaboration software space causes the introduction of even more mobile technology protocols. Whereas in 2007 were three dominant mobile technology protocols, at the end of 2009, the European market is now being dominated by six mobile technology protocols: GPRS, UMTS, HSDPA, WiBro, HSUPA and WiMax. All these different protocols lead to technology divergence instead of the expected technology convergence.<br />
<br />
Manufacturing jobs throughout Europe are going the way of agricultural employment did after the Second World War (i.e., disappearing fast); a whole new category of “creative labour” is emerging in Europe. Because of all aforementioned changes, corporations are struggling with their old-fashioned organisational structures to utilise and reap benefits from the emergence of the creative class. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''2010 – 2012'''<br />
In 2010 corporations are re-evaluating their corporate models to create new competencies and capabilities around the emerging creative class. Most notable the aspects around the mobility of the actual work and the locations of offices are evaluated on their viability. The further integration of Europe results in the fact that highly skilled labour is not only available anymore in Western Europe but increasingly in other parts of Europe as well. For example in Hungary, Poland, Latvia and Estonia. This stimulates the use of collaboration software to support their cross-cultural teams and a further decentralisation of the companies’ office locations to other European regions.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2010, the workforce is starting to collaborate more openly and effectively, both inside and outside the organisation. This doesn’t mean the end of extreme competition in high volatile markets, but actually quite the reverse. As a result, individuals are beginning to assemble new business models that facilitate open and collaborative forms of work based on the idea of sharing common resources to the benefit of all, also called “Open Business”. This is mainly inspired by such examples as the Human Genome Project’s use of open data to help everyone in biotech compete more efficiently. <br />
<br />
At the end of 2011, the typical headquarter as we know it now has simply disappears. Similar tasks will be performed by different people across multiple physical offices within Europe. High speed data networks via the internet make it possible that all these locations are seemingly interconnected with each other. The workers in these companies are still performing their work either at the office or at home but now they are working in cross functional teams that are spread over different geographical office locations. This leads to a steep increase of in-company travel between the different geographical locations across Europe. <br />
<br />
Europe is on its way to become the most competitive world economy because of the aforementioned developments. Most dominant in this interplay is the favourable landscape regarding the European internal market. Alongside a new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe<br />
<br />
<br />
'''2012 - 2015'''<br />
In 2012 the creative class enabled by cross-cultural teams becomes the main driver behind the flourishing European economy. In light of the flourishing European economy, European companies are prospering as well. After the acquisition of Matsushita Electric Industrial by ABB, it overtakes General Electric in terms of market value. As result of the prospering European economy it faces an incredible period of job creation which results in a job demand surplus. Therefore, the competition for talent moves towards a stage at global scale, especially as more and more work is performed by cross cultural teams at different geographical locations.<br />
<br />
At the end of 2013 the pace of European integration and as the workforce has become more and more cultural diverse, the number of culture clashes within companies increases as well. People start to struggle with the fast pace over the last years and rigorous integration of the EU. European companies are still flourishing because they make use of the fact that people want more certainty. In result of that, they decentralise the offices even more across Europe, in fact corporations are effectively mobilising the work tasks instead of moving the people around.<br />
<br />
Outward looking corporations such as Unilever, IBM and Nokia are preparing for the age of Open Business; they become the early adopters and most successful companies in their industry. Most notable Nokia becomes the text book example on how to structure itself along the concept of Open Business and to capitalise on the opportunities of cross-cultural teams across many different geographical areas. Within Nokia, the today’s youngsters (20-25 years) join the ranks of middle-management; they will upend the way business is performed. This new way of working is mainly centred around their experiences of “playing” with instant-messaging, blogs, chat-groups, play-lists, peer-to-peer downloads and online multi-player video games. They will use the principles of these technologies to work together and share their knowledge and aims in much the same way as they swap songs and videos illegally over the internet today. This new way of collaboration and performing business among highly decentralised office locations is perfectly normal among Nokia’s tomorrow’s workforce. <br />
<br />
This new way of working is still heavily supported by working at fixed decentralised office locations but flexible working times are the rule. Simply because of collaboration and coordination of cross-cultural teams between different time zones requires flexible working hours. Corporations realise that a highly mobile workforce and mobility (working from anywhere, anytime, anyplace) will not necessarily lead in higher productivity. Academic confirmation on this matter was already given by the Stockholm School of Economics in 2012 and later confirmed by the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2014. They argue that only for a small number of jobs such as (consultants, account managers and sales persons) a high mobility (working in the train, aeroplane and coach) will increase productivity. <br />
<br />
For the majority of the workforce where team work is the centre of the daily activities, working in a more formal setting in an optimum designed office is still preferable. The integration of the EU and all the technological innovations has made the world “smaller”, but the majority of people in organisations hold on to the benefits of unambiguous collaboration software and physical contact still prevail above working from anywhere, anytime. This year in- and inter- company travel increases again.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=16615Future of Workspace2006-05-09T19:35:03Z<p>Blub: /* Framework / System diagrams */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
Please download the [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)] of the System Map to analyse it in detail.<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[People are ready, business / Europe is not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[Technology is ready, but Europe, businesses and people are hesitant]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=16612Future of Workspace2006-05-09T19:31:42Z<p>Blub: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG Download high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)]<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[People are ready, business / Europe is not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[Technology is ready, but Europe, businesses and people are hesitant]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Workspace&diff=16599Future of Workspace2006-05-09T19:20:11Z<p>Blub: /* Framework / System diagrams */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Team composition==<br />
*[[Arjan Hannink]]<br />
*[[Jasper Odijk]]<br />
*[[Ron Sneijers]]<br />
*[[Sander van den Belt]]<br />
*[[Wojtek Chowanski]]<br />
<br />
==Introduction==<br />
How will the business workspace look in the next ten years.<br />
<br />
<br />
Hopefully like this <br><br />
http://download.sneijers.net/hawaii.jpg<br />
<br />
===Scope===<br />
To be filled in<br />
<br />
===Current landscape===<br />
<br />
How mobile is the European workforce? The following facts and figures give a general overview of current situation in the EU labour market.<br />
<br />
*[[Job-to-job mobility]]<br />
*[[Geographical mobility]]<br />
*[[Cross-border workers]]<br />
*[[Foreign language learning]]<br />
*[[Skills & labour shortages]]<br />
*[[Free movement and enlargement of the EU]]<br />
<br />
Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/fact_figures_en.htm<br />
<br />
==Research dimensions==<br />
1. Technological<br><br />
2. Political and Legal<br><br />
3. Enviromental<br><br />
4. Economical<br><br />
5. Social <br><br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
+++Please Order all new driving forces alphabetical+++<br />
<br />
'''Guys, to avoid duplicate driving forces you also have to link your driving force at this [http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces page ] '''<br />
<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Network Bandwidth]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[The increase of digital developing functions in a mobile phone]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communication]]<br />
*[[Virtual Communities]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
*[[WiMAX]]<br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[European integration]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[Global Warming]]<br />
*[[Global Dimming]]<br />
*[[Green Buildings]]<br />
*[[Green transporation mediums]]<br />
*[[Pollution]]<br />
*[[Public meeting spaces]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[High Speed Train Network (HSL)]]<br />
*[[Iranian Oil Bourse]]<br />
*[[Pay-as-you-drive]]<br />
*[[Traffic Congestion]]<br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
*[[immigration]]<br />
*[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
*[[Mobile workplace]]<br />
*[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
*[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere]]<br />
*[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
*[[The Language Barrier]]<br />
*[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
<br><br><br />
<br />
==Research questions==<br />
===Technological===<br />
*[[What's the most promising emerging technology to support virtual communication and doing business?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workscape be equiped? Which devices will be used?]]<br />
*[[What kind of technological infrastructure is needed to support the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What role will security play in the future workspace?]]<br />
* <br><br><br />
<br />
===Political and Legal=== <br />
*[[What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?]]<br />
*[[What’s the role of the European Union on the workspace? How can they support it and how can they thwart it?]]<br />
*[[How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?]]<br />
*[[What sorts of initiatives are being carried out by other governmental institutions around the world?]]<br />
*[[Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of a future workspace]]<br />
<br />
===Enviromental===<br />
*[[How will enviromental legislature affect the bottom line of our company?]]<br><br />
*[[How will Kyoto protocol affect operating costs of an office building?]]<br><br />
*[[What future enviromental protection legislature will have an affect on transporation to/from our place of work?]] <br><br />
*[[How will alternative sources of energy affect the way we work?]]<br><br />
*[[What are the most serious affects of our workspace on the environment?]]<br />
<br />
===Economical===<br />
*[[What will the general European economical developments most likely be within the coming decade?]]<br />
*[[How will the general European economical development affect the future of the workspace?]]<br />
*[[How will the future workspace contribute to the economical direction and position of Europe?]]<br><br />
<br />
===Social===<br />
*[[How could religion affect possible implications in a future workspace?]]<br><br />
*[[Will there be a standard language in a multi-cultural company?]]<br><br />
*[[How does the future workspace influence the client/colleque relationship?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace change the organisational hierarchy?]]<br><br />
*[[How do you control and manage employees when you can work anywhere anytime?]]<br><br />
*[[How will a future workspace affect the training process?]]<br />
*How will a future workspace affect knowledge sharing within the corporation and within the entire supply chain of companies?<br />
*How will immigration and people with other cultural backgrounds affect the future workspace?<br><br><br />
<br />
==Predetermined and critical uncertainties==<br />
<br />
==Framework / System diagrams==<br />
<br />
<br />
[[Image:SystemMapMini.jpg]]<br><br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/images/1/10/SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG Download high resolution version (1944x2500, 4706 KB)]<br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
<br />
===Scenario 1 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Improving mobility of workforce<br />
* Less flexible state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Dissolving state of the EU<br />
* More flexible state of society<br />
* Low liberation of labor laws<br />
* Declining state of economy<br />
* Stable state of environment<br />
====[[People are ready, business / Europe is not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 2 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Stable mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Proprietary standards of mobile technology<br />
* More integrated state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* High liberation of labor laws<br />
* Growth state of economy<br />
* Improving state of environment<br />
<br />
====[[Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not]]====<br />
<br />
===Scenario 3 Assumptions===<br />
<br />
* Deteriorating mobility of workforce<br />
* Traditional state of organizations<br />
* Standardized state of mobile technology<br />
* Stable state of the EU<br />
* Traditional state of society<br />
* Slack state of labor laws<br />
* Stabilization of economy<br />
* Deteriorating environment<br />
<br />
====[[Technology is ready, but Europe, businesses and people are hesitant]]====<br />
<br />
==Strategic Roadmap==<br />
<br />
==References==<br />
===Articles===<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/3rdwave_prove.pdf 3rd wave of Internet and collaborative working environments] (PDF)<br />
*[http://www.emergingcommunication.com/ Ambient Intelligence: The evolution of technology, communication and cognition towards the future of human-computer interaction]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/experts_group_scenarios.pdf Application Scenarios for Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/collabwork2005.pdf Collaboration@Work Report 2005] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/_documents/collaborative_solutions_seem.pdf Collaborative Solutions in the Single European Electronic Market (SEEM). Strategy vision and Research challenges.] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/legal_and_regulatory_constraints.pdf Legal and regulatory constraints on the application and implementation of IST research results that may affect their impact on knowledge society development through new working environments ] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/work_paradigms/experts_group/documents/next_generation_collab_environments_report.pdf Report on Next Generation Collaborative Working Environments 2005 - 2010]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/hot_news/publications/documents/ami_chapterfinal.pdf Section IV: Ambient Intelligence In Practice: Future Perspectives And Applications; Chapter 13 : "AMI-endowed Collaboration@Work] (PDF)<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/information_society/activities/atwork/marie_curie/docs/marie_curie_report_final_web.pdf Successfully crossing frontiers in IT - working in research. Information Society Marie Curie Industry Host Fellowships and Training Accompanying Measures.] (PDF)<br />
<br />
===Books===<br />
*[http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470844914,descCd-tableOfContents.html The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios (ISBN: 0-470-84491-4)]<br />
<br />
===Websites===<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/sponsor/forwardthinking/ Aviva Forward Thinking - The economist]<br />
*[http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/workersmobility2006/index_en.htm EU - Towards a european labour market]<br />
*[http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655 Global Business Network Documents]<br />
*[http://www.pwc.com/Extweb/service.nsf/docid/CDAD20E8E70CAF7E80256FBE005F0106 PWC - International mobility insight]<br />
*[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]<br />
<br />
----</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG&diff=16595File:SystemMapWorkPlace.JPG2006-05-09T19:16:43Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=File:SystemMapMini.jpg&diff=16593File:SystemMapMini.jpg2006-05-09T19:15:00Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div></div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=User:Blub&diff=16027User:Blub2006-05-07T19:36:25Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>Ron Sneijers (ronsneijers@hotmail.com)<br><br />
http://blog.sneijers.net<br><br><br />
<br />
Personal page on ScenarioThinking.org [[Ron Sneijers]]</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Ron_Sneijers&diff=16026Ron Sneijers2006-05-07T19:34:45Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Profile==<br />
Ron Sneijers<br><br />
http://sneijers.net<br><br />
http://blog.sneijers.net<br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
<br />
http://blog.sneijers.net/shanghaitanglogo.jpg<br />
<br />
http://blog.sneijers.net/uploaded_images/shanghaitangfashion-706212.jpg<br />
<br />
===New=== <br />
''Shanghai Tang is ready to become China's first great luxury brand. Forget about cheap textile and DVD players. This is the next battlefield for global competition.''<br />
<br />
The four biggest emerging markets (according to The Economist's research) China, India, Brazil and Russia are standing at the door steps to capture a stake in the haute couture apparel industry. Emerging fashion designers especially in Asian countries like China and India are getting lots of attention from the outside world; among them some are seen as the next rising fashion designer stars.<br />
<br />
===Replace===<br />
The haute couture apparel industry is for many years dominated by brands from the Western world. Well known brands like Gucci, Versace, Louis Vuitton, Armani, Prada, etc. are setting the pace in this high-end industry segment. In the upcoming five to ten years I foresee a major shift in fashion style and fashion brands that are dominating the industry. Along with the shift in the global arena were the world is becoming more integrated and interrelated with each other. As a result a new high-end apparel industry playing field will emerge. <br />
<br />
===Change===<br />
Shanghai Tang is following the tradition of established luxury labels associated with a specific national aesthetic. Brands like Armani, Gucci, Prada, and Versace have long symbolised streamlined Italian style. Chanel embodies Parisian elegance. With its current booming sales, Shanghai Tang has the chance to become the Chanel of China in the years ahead of us. <br />
<br />
The impact of creating the first Chinese luxurious brand that can make it abroad will not only affect China and the playing field of the apparel industry. It will move beyond that, it will be the first brand followed by an arsenal of new brands that will penetrate into established and mature Western markets in any industry. For example, Haier will set ground in the electronics / white goods industry and Huawei in the telecom industry. Furthermore, creating the first Chinese luxurious brand will be a stimulus and proof for all other emerging countries that brands from developing countries can make it abroad in a similar time slot.<br />
<br />
Aforementioned reasoning is supported by all authoritative news and information companies around the world that have spotted the rising fashion star Shanghai Tang as well. (See reference list)<br />
<br />
===Growth=== <br />
Worldwide sales have grown 43% in the last year (2005), and American sales (at boutiques in New York and Honolulu) are up 50%. In 2005, new stores opened in Zurich, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Bangkok. Currently, two more stores, in Beijing and Milan, are set to open in 2006. Shanghai Tang expects to have 30 stores by the end of 2007.<br />
<br />
===References=== <br />
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4198266.stm BBC - Low-cost China eyes luxury future]<br />
*[http://www.brandchannel.com/features_profile.asp?pr_id=42 Brandchannel - Shanghai Tang firmly tongue in chic]<br />
*[http://images.businessweek.com/ss/05/11/shanghai_tang/index_01.htm?campaign_id=search BusinessWeek - Inspiring Shanghai Tang's Fashions]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_29/b3842138_mz034.htm BusinessWeek - Richemont in a Rut]<br />
*[http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/nov2005/id20051130_575911.htm BusinessWeek - Shanghai Tang: A Taste of China]<br />
*[http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/03/15/eyeonchina.brands/index.html CNN - Designing a global brand] <br />
*[http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002573.html Daniel W. Drezner - The intriguing rise of Shanghai Tang]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/90/fasttalk.html Fast Company - Fast Talk: China Rising]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai.html Fast Company - The Gucci Killers]<br />
*[http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/shanghai-sidebar.html Fast Company - The Little Red Book of Branding]<br />
*[http://www.gridskipper.com/travel/tokyo/shanghai-tang-ginza-154729.php Gridskipper- Shanghai Tang Ginza]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/24/opinion/rfair.php International Herald Tribune - Expats in Hong Kong design new careers]<br />
*[http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/05/11/ftang_ed3_.php International Herald Tribune - Shanghai Tang cheers a decade on the scene]<br />
*[http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=travel&res=9506E4DC1531F930A25752C0A96F958260 New York Times - New Yorkers Embrace a Little Shanghai Specialty]<br />
*[http://www.shanghaitang.com/ Shanghai Tang Corporate webpage]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5420756 The Economist - Climbing back]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQTTJSS The Economist - Coming of age]<br />
*[http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PNRGVQV The Economist – Grow up]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/arts/article/0,9754,102476,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Beware the Dragon]<br />
*[http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/article/0,9754,98297,00.html Time Magazine - Made in China: Fashion Boomerang]<br />
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tang Wikipedia Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
Ron Sneijers<br />
March 17th, 2006<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Driving Forces==<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==<br />
===Present===<br />
===Professional===<br />
===Academic===</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=User:Blub&diff=15714User:Blub2006-05-05T22:03:43Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>Ron Sneijers (ronsneijers@hotmail.com)<br><br />
http://blog.sneijers.net<br><br><br />
<br />
==Object of the future==<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Ron_Sneijers Shanghai Tang]<br />
<br />
==Contributions==<br />
===Driving Forces===<br />
*[[Aging Europe]]<br />
*[[Business in Society]]<br />
*[[European Labour Market]]<br />
*[[Technological convergence]]<br />
*[[WiBro]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
==Learning log==</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Technology_is_ready,_but_Europe,_businesses_and_people_are_hesitant&diff=15681Technology is ready, but Europe, businesses and people are hesitant2006-05-05T14:01:01Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Stories / possible developments==<br />
<br />
* Europe moves along as it is currently is as there are no changes in the labour laws and mobility and flexibility of the workforce deteriorates.<br />
* Spending on infrastructure projects is decreased. Public transporation projects fall apart and the environment is negetively affected.<br />
* EU finds it harder to compete against the west and especially Asia as no significant econmic growth is observed and labour regulation reform is at a standstill.<br />
* Health indicators, quality of life and life expectancy plumet as the environment deteriorates.<br />
* Mentallity of the workforce remains unchaged to the idea of adapting to new working realities and requirements, thus Europe becomes less competative.<br />
* Europe becomes insignificant in world affairs as the economy just barely tags along.<br />
* Russia refuses to join the EU and signs multiple trade agreements with China.<br />
<br />
Arjan<br />
* technology developments in the field of mobile transmission, handsets, voip, etc are on a rollercoaster ride enhanced by technological developments in asia<br />
* the usa finally manages to standardise it's mobile technology through all of its states to improve it's communication infrastrcture, which urges mobile manufactures and telcos worldwide to do the same<br />
* economic growth of the eu comes under pressure due to high competition in the far east.<br />
* socialist forces like those observed in the france student protests in 2006 prevent any labour liberalisation vital for europe's flexibility and competitiveness<br />
* uprising and rebellion in several russian provinces including czenchna and dagestan, military struggles within georgia and between armenia and azerbeidjan, the continuous reign of force by the belarus dictatorship, and the reelection of the ukraine right-wing president who was forced to leave office after the orange revolution cause headaches for the european and form a heavy burden on its funds<br />
* attention is shifted away from the environment as economic hardship is foreseen, causing deterioriating environment, ultimately leading to abandoning of the kyoto protocol and european emission standards<br />
* traffic congestion increases, negatively contributing to the mobility of workforce<br />
<br />
Jasper<br />
* European companies struggle as their American and Asian competitors bring management and performing business to the next level. Their professionals are real mobile workforces which seem to be everywhere, all the time.<br />
* As the environment deteriorates more and more, people become more hesistant to travel. Mobility of society decreases. <br />
* The slack state of the labor laws creates differences between the Eastern and Western members of the EU.<br />
<br />
<br />
ron<br />
*Workspaces allow mobility of work and mobility of the workplace (virtual organisations) rather that mobility of people. This creates no need for a high mobility of the workforce in terms of moving physically from a to b.<br />
*Businesses that reinventing themselves with respect to all technological innovations that support doing business anytime, anywhere, anyplace will move to places where they can find the right people. It is not a matter of competing against new economic powers as China, Russia, Brazil and India it is a matter of creating a global supply chain. From time memorial, Europe’s competencies and capabilities is dealing with cultural differences as the world is globalising more and more different nationalities and cultures can be find at the top positions in corporations. If Europe can vitalise its core capabilities and competences again they can manage and steer these global supply chains. Corporations will move people around where they are needed, therefore the workplace is more affected on how corporations will develop as on ow Europe will struggle its way in the 21st century.<br />
<br />
Sander<br />
*The state of technology is safe enough to have mobile workspaces. Major cities are creating public places which have all the facilities for people to be able to work their.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Europe_ready_and_flexible,_businesses_and_people_are_not&diff=15680Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not2006-05-05T14:00:41Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Stories / possible developments==<br />
<br />
* Europe flourishes due to the competative work environment.<br />
* Margers and acquisitions as companies wish to impose their technology standard on the industry.<br />
* Oracle purchases SAP to obtain strong foothold in the lucrative European market.<br />
* Foreign investment is at an all time high as the EU economy grows.<br />
* Fight for greater share of the marketplace decreases prices.<br />
* Russia joins the European union as high liberization of the job marketproduces more jobs.<br />
<br />
<br />
Arjan<br />
* The EU finally fully opens it labour market to the new 10 former east-european member states<br />
* the use of new cheap labour and highly motivated workers in the "old europe" has a positive effect on its people and the european economy in general, causing strong growth<br />
* talks about membership are started again with croatia, serbia (after the extradiction of Karadzic and Mladic), bosnia and herzegovina, turkey, the ukraine, and georgia<br />
* russia is allowed in during important round tables of eu and national officials<br />
* the fast movements in the mobile market cause different strategic decisions of european telcos regarding mobile standards<br />
* this is being enhanced by the takeover of telenor and teliasonera by NTT docomo who know has almost the entire scandinavian market and plans to expand to the rest of europe using new advanced japanese hsdpa-based technology<br />
* after the surprising election of a new liberal president following all kind of electoral struggling in the usa, and the expansion of the bolivian-venazuelan-cuban socialist pact in latin america the EU plans to create a more integrated foreign policy, creating the stepstone to more integration<br />
* although many new workers from eastern europe come to work in the west, western workers (apart from the entrepeneurs) are hesistant to leave their home place, while not being enforced to do so by the static organisations as well<br />
<br />
Jasper<br />
* A new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe.<br />
* After years of protest against nuclear energy by environmentalists, a new European law is accepted which prohibit the use of nuclear power throughout Europe.<br />
* As a direct result of the previous two factors the environment shows signs of improvement.<br />
<br />
<br />
ron<br />
*Employment regulation will change towards more flexible work, that can be carried out collaboratively at anytime and anyplace.<br />
*When people (businesses) are not ready there won’t be happening much in the area of the corporate workspace. Ultimately, corporations need evidence that a high mobile workforce and mobility will lead in doing better business (creating more shareholder value). Can corporations organise themselves around people that are working from anywhere, anytime, and will that increase work product quality, time-to-market, service quality, R&D, etc.? Because of all technological innovations the world already has become “smaller”, for the next years ahead the benefits of physical contact will also prevail above working from anywhere anytime.<br />
<br />
Sander<br />
*EU forces companies to have a more 'mixed' workforce, resulting in companies having problems with cultural issues</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=People_are_ready,_business_/_Europe_is_not&diff=15679People are ready, business / Europe is not2006-05-05T14:00:18Z<p>Blub: </p>
<hr />
<div>==Stories / possible developments==<br />
<br />
* People are ready for a change as the society is more flexible, and the the state of the economy continues to slip.<br />
* EU governments are bogged down by politicians who are out for intrests of their particular country due to the dissolving state of the EU.<br />
* Businesses are hesitant to innovate and invest as legislation is stuck in first gear due to the low liberalization of labor laws.<br />
* Low economic growth is seen across the board.<br />
* Nationalistic governments limit foreign investment.<br />
* Large multinationals struggle as fierce competition from smaller rivals increases. Unable to draw up more competetive contracts with unions, small adaptive enterpreneurships flourish.<br />
* Massive layoffs at Phillips, Daimler Benz and SAP.<br />
* Galileo space program falls apart as control cannot be agreed upon. Germany wants to retain majority share and increase control in the program, and causes EU countries to withdraw their contributions.<br />
* Britain exits from the EU. Transfer payments and unfair portions of agricultular subsidies are paid out of Britains expense. Britain expends ties with America.<br />
<br />
Arjan<br />
* Strong left-wing governments win elections in france and germany, while Labour has a historic loss in the UK<br />
* This unravels strong nationalistic labour forces within several countries, with more power for the unions again.<br />
* This results in the upkeeping of strict labour laws and a dissolving state of the EU<br />
* eventually the spending patterns and measures of the socialis movement causes a less flexible EU and organisation (under pressure of socialist movements and the unions), bringing economic growth to a halt<br />
* while the blue collar workforce is advocating many of the measures of the government the white collar workforce is becoming increasingly mobile, individualistic, demanding, and informed, causing a change towards a more flexible society<br />
* while european businesses struggle to become more competitive the asian (china) corporations are knocking on the porch of Europe's market<br />
* the socialists are brining europe into a deadlock by insisting on trade barriers<br />
* this causes further deterioration of the economy, while the new eastern member states seriously considder to join the russian led free trade zone in the area of independent states<br />
<br />
Jasper<br />
* Many companies in the air traffic industry report record high turnovers and seem to finally have overcome the slughish years<br />
* A new wireless network is being launched and wireless internet is available everywhere. This new network also enables stable connections while moving (e.g. in cars/trains)<br />
* Because of the troubling state of the EU, many Asian economies switch to the Dollar as the main trade currency, which consequently leads to a huge decline of the value of the EURO. The Dollar becomes the #1 currency again.<br />
<br />
ron<br />
*Europe is becoming one virtual workspace, physical mobility for corporate purpose diminish, European borders and legislation is gaining less importance due to the corporate trend towards the next (21st) organisation structure, virtual organisations. Businesses are taking lead, and as they are already operating across countries and continents the world including Europe is unifying towards a new model as well.<br />
<br />
Sander<br />
*Employees are assigned to tasks that are stored in their profile, allowing them to work at different places and at any time<br />
*Employees work on the same task while physically be in different countries</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=How_will_political/international_relations_affect_the_future_workspace%3F&diff=15678How will political/international relations affect the future workspace?2006-05-05T11:55:14Z<p>Blub: </p>
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<div>Political/international relations will affect the future workspace especially in building transportation and technology infrastructure across national borders. However, by close interactions and continuously interplay between corporations and policy makers this cane be solved in making agreements.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=How_can_you_find_harmony_between_European_countries_on_regulations_and_legislation_concerning_the_workspace_with_respect_to_country%27s_sovereignty%3F&diff=15677How can you find harmony between European countries on regulations and legislation concerning the workspace with respect to country's sovereignty?2006-05-05T11:51:11Z<p>Blub: </p>
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<div>We foresee a limited influence on how country's sovereignty will affect the corporate workspace. Since companies are operating globally nowadays the original ties with natural roots towards one nation will vaporise. Especially, when more and more people with different cultural and national backgrounds join the workforce and enter top level management positions. Therefore, the dominance towards country sovereignty will evolve towards a global culture.</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=What_are_the_effects_of_unequal_minimum_wages_between_European_countries_on_the_workspace%3F&diff=15676What are the effects of unequal minimum wages between European countries on the workspace?2006-05-05T11:43:47Z<p>Blub: </p>
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<div>Supported by the enlargement of the EU towards a number totalling 25 nations, the discrepancy between the minimum wages across EU country members has grown significantly. To illustrate this Bulgaria has minimum monthly wage of EUR 61.43 and in the Netherlands EUR 1,264.80.<br />
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This will lead to the fact that labour intensive work will be performed in countries with a low minimum wage, and high valuable work in the richer countries. Regulation has to be made that people, wherever they come from, they have to be paid at least the minimum wage corresponding to the country where the work is performed.<br />
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Overtime the current unequal discrepancy of minimum wages across the EU will decline because countries will further develop and gaining more prosperity. Furthermore, unequal wages will also be a fact that businesses have to deal with. Therefore, it’s better to take advantages on the fact of unequal wages across Europe. However, the EU has to ensure that legislation is supporting this by liberalising labour laws.<br />
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*Detailed Information on minimum wages across Europe can be found here: http://www.eiro.eurofound.eu.int/2005/07/study/tn0507101s.html</div>Blubhttps://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Europe_ready_and_flexible,_businesses_and_people_are_not&diff=15650Europe ready and flexible, businesses and people are not2006-05-04T22:37:09Z<p>Blub: </p>
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<div>==Stories / possible developments==<br />
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* Europe flourishes due to the competative work environment.<br />
* Margers and acquisitions as companies wish to impose their technology standard on the industry.<br />
* Oracle purchases SAP to obtain strong foothold in the lucrative European market.<br />
* Foreign investment is at an all time high as the EU economy grows.<br />
* Fight for greater share of the marketplace decreases prices.<br />
* Russia joins the European union as high liberization of the job marketproduces more jobs.<br />
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Arjan<br />
* The EU finally fully opens it labour market to the new 10 former east-european member states<br />
* the use of new cheap labour and highly motivated workers in the "old europe" has a positive effect on its people and the european economy in general, causing strong growth<br />
* talks about membership are started again with croatia, serbia (after the extradiction of Karadzic and Mladic), bosnia and herzegovina, turkey, the ukraine, and georgia<br />
* russia is allowed in during important round tables of eu and national officials<br />
* the fast movements in the mobile market cause different strategic decisions of european telcos regarding mobile standards<br />
* this is being enhanced by the takeover of telenor and teliasonera by NTT docomo who know has almost the entire scandinavian market and plans to expand to the rest of europe using new advanced japanese hsdpa-based technology<br />
* after the surprising election of a new liberal president following all kind of electoral struggling in the usa, and the expansion of the bolivian-venazuelan-cuban socialist pact in latin america the EU plans to create a more integrated foreign policy, creating the stepstone to more integration<br />
* although many new workers from eastern europe come to work in the west, western workers (apart from the entrepeneurs) are hesistant to leave their home place, while not being enforced to do so by the static organisations as well<br />
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Jasper<br />
* A new road-pricing (pay-as-you-drive) law is being accepted by many members of the EU which causes decrease in car usage throughout Europe.<br />
* After years of protest against nuclear energy by environmentalists, a new European law is accepted which prohibit the use of nuclear power throughout Europe.<br />
* As a direct result of the previous two factors the environment shows signs of improvement.<br />
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Dude XYZ<br />
*Employment regulation will change towards more flexible work, that can be carried out collaboratively at anytime and anyplace.<br />
*When people (businesses) are not ready there won’t be happening much in the area of the corporate workspace. Ultimately, corporations need evidence that a high mobile workforce and mobility will lead in doing better business (creating more shareholder value). Can corporations organise themselves around people that are working from anywhere, anytime, and will that increase work product quality, time-to-market, service quality, R&D, etc.? Because of all technological innovations the world already has become “smaller”, for the next years ahead the benefits of physical contact will also prevail above working from anywhere anytime.<br />
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Sander<br />
*EU forces companies to have a more 'mixed' workforce, resulting in companies having problems with cultural issues</div>Blub