https://www.scenariothinking.org/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=80.126.19.114&feedformat=atom
ScenarioThinking - User contributions [en]
2024-03-29T01:47:34Z
User contributions
MediaWiki 1.37.0
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Main_Page&diff=6160
Main Page
2005-06-29T09:07:45Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Scientific Surprises */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
Welcome to the open community on scenario thinking. ScenarioThinking.org is the open space where we can publish scenarios, reflect on the process, share resources in an democratic, inclusive and continuous manner. ScenarioThinking.org is currently sponsored by [http://www.dtn.net the DTN], which since 1996 has been publishing scenarios online to grow the public discourse in this space. The philosophy is that we all benefit by sharing our thinking about this unique 30 year old process.<br><br />
<br />
Material on this site is published under the creative commons licence and may be shared and used freely, as long as they cite the source. We encourage everybody to use scenario thinking, to aid more rational and long-term thinking in our organisations and institutions.<br><br><br />
----<br />
<br />
==Agenda==<br />
This is the place to keep each other posted on [[Agenda|Coming Events]] that have something to do with scenarios or are interesting for people involved in scenario's or interested in scenario thinking and scenario processes.<br><br><br />
----<br />
<br />
==Knowledge Pages==<br />
''The [[Knowledge Pages]] are pages where you can find and leave everything that has to do with knowledge about scenarios and scenario processes. Self written texts, articles, videos, presentations and more. In short, this is the place to get to know everything about scenarios and share what you always wanted to know.''<br />
<br />
===What is Scenario Thinking?===<br />
Documents, presentations, articles and more on [[What is Scenario Thinking?|what scenario thinking is]]. Here you will find for example a presentation about the process of building a scenario. <br />
<br />
===Thoughts about scenario processes===<br />
[[Thoughts About Scenario Processes|Here]] we go a bit deeper into the subject of scenarios. Thoughts on the objective of scenario thinking, why it should or shouldn't work and new insights into the process and it effects. <br />
<br />
===Interviews===<br />
A section for [[Interviews|interviews]] on scenario thinking and other future processes. Here video, audio and text interviews can be found and left.<br><br><br />
----<br />
<br />
==Resources==<br />
''In the sections below many different resources can be found on scenario processes. From a portal full of interesting links to a database full of interesting scenarios.''<br />
<br />
===Scenario Thinking Portal===<br />
The [[Scenario Thinking Portal]] is the place where we can share and access the best resources on the web on anything that has to do with scenario thinking. Including links to scenario resource pages, example scenarios, sources of change and anything you can come up with and have some interesting links to.<br />
<br />
===Driving Forces===<br />
We already have many [[Driving Forces]] available here. Have a look at them, use them for your own purposes and add driving forces you have identified yourself. This way we will have a database of driving forces that allows us quick insight on important developments. We have driving forces that explore the political, social, economic, environmental and economical changes in the world. Feel free to add another category.<br />
<br />
===Example Scenarios===<br />
This is the page for [[Example Scenarios]]. Through those scenario's we can learn from each other through each other’s work. Next to professional scenarios a large database of scenarios by students from all over the world can be found here.<br />
<br />
===Scientific Surprises===<br />
Things you heard about but didn't think existed, things you couldn't even imagine. On this page with [[Scientific Surprises]] you will see that part of what you thought of as future is already here.</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Help:Contents&diff=6143
Help:Contents
2005-06-24T10:07:32Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Interactive Help Section */</p>
<hr />
<div>If you have any questions about the content of this website, please ask them in the interactive help section below. That way, anyone who knows the answer will be able to answer your question. Also [www.dtn.net DTN], as sponsor of this site, will regularly check this page to answer questions. <br />
<br />
If you have a question about editing, please go to the [[Help:Editing|editing help]] where you will find links to extensive help files on wiki-editing. <br />
<br />
===Interactive Help Section===<br />
Please write down your question here, using the regular editing method. If you have an answer to an unanswered question, please write it down. Please put new questions at the top.<br />
<br />
hi</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Object_from_the_Future&diff=13583
Object from the Future
2005-06-14T12:56:54Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>''The future is here, we just need to know where to look''<br />
<br />
Objects from the future, can be defined as: An object or service in today that we can look back at in 10 years time, and recognise that this was the first of future trend. It can be sociological, technological, political, environmental, economic, or business. This can be a physical object, or a service, or both.<br />
<br />
An example could be Mecca Cola. For years US style consumer marketing has sold an aspirational US identity. Eat a Big Mac and feed to be part of the ''land of the free''. The long lines outside McDonnalds in Moscow in the 1990's is a demonstration, of the desire for this US identity. Techniques of consumer marketing were used to strengthen and renew this identity. The question is whether the same techniques will be used to create other global identities, which people will consume with the same gusto as a Mac Royale. [http://www.mecca-cola.com Mecca Cola] represents a significant move in this direction. Made from water of the river Mecca, and with 20% of the proceeds going to a charities (10% local, 10% Palestinian children) it sells a distinct socially responsible identity to the 1 billion Islamic people in the world. Will we see many more such products, selling African, Indian, Catholic or Chinese identities?<br />
<br />
'''Scenario MBA Class instructions'''<br />
Please scan your environment for what you would term a Object from the future. Describe this object in terms of:<br />
* New - what is new about this object, what makes it different?<br />
* Replace - what other objects does this object replace?<br />
* Change - how could this object change its environment (remember the car example)?<br />
* Growth - Are there many of these objects around, what are the growth statistics for these objects?<br />
* Other - any other issues that you feel to be relevant<br />
* References - where can the reader find more information on this object, and what other information support your claims that this is something new?<br />
Add your object from the future to the wiki, under the name: '''Object from the Future: Name of Object''' and upload a digital photo of it to the wiki and your page. (it should be about 2 A4 pages in lenght) Please take the object and hand it in to Yejoung Lee who will physically mail the objects to me for inclusion in the DTN gallery here!</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Object_from_the_Future&diff=6127
Object from the Future
2005-06-14T12:19:48Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>''The future is here, we just need to know where to look''<br />
<br />
Objects from the future, can be defined as: An object or service in today that we can look back at in 10 years time, and recognise that this was the first of future trend. It can be sociological, technological, political, environmental, economic, or business. This can be a physical object, or a service, or both.<br />
<br />
An example could be Mecca Cola. For years US style consumer marketing has sold an aspirational US identity. Eat a Big Mac and feed to be part of the ''land of the free''. The long lines outside McDonnalds in Moscow in the 1990's is a demonstration, of the desire for this US identity. Techniques of consumer marketing were used to strengthen and renew this identity. The question is whether the same techniques will be used to create other global identities, which people will consume with the same gusto as a Mac Royale. [http://www.meccacola.com Mecca Cola] represents a significant move in this direction. Made from water of the river Mecca, and with 20% of the proceeds going to a charities (10% local, 10% Palestinian children) it sells a distinct socially responsible identity to the 1 billion Islamic people in the world. Will we see many more such products, selling African, Indian, Catholic or Chinese identities?<br />
<br />
'''Scenario MBA Class instructions'''<br />
Please scan your environment for what you would term a Object from the future. Describe this object in terms of:<br />
* New - what is new about this object<br />
* Change - how could this object change its environment (remember the car example)<br />
*</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=ASSIST_BL_2005&diff=13174
ASSIST BL 2005
2005-06-14T10:44:57Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Course Assessment */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the aSSIST 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic business. The class is divided into blocks that are listed below.<br />
<br />
'''Lecturer Notes:'''<br><br />
We have changed the course outline to develop our chosen scenario focus. We shall be developing scenarios on the [[Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015]]<br><br />
Instructions how to use the WIKI are listed in the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Help Wikipedia:Help]<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking, and defining a Research Space==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
==='''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (24 May)'''===<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Listing uncertainties and answering research questions relating to the [[Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==='''Session 2: Under the Iceberg (26 May)'''===<br />
From uncertainties to [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* What is a Driving Force?<br />
* Developing Driving Forces from uncertainties<br />
* Interrelating the Driving Forces in Systems Diagrams (time allowing)<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
Developing the [[Driving Forces]] deeper and adding them to the WIKI database and the [[Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015]] page.<br />
<br />
==Block 2: Building Scenarios==<br />
<br />
Scenarios are a communication processes and to work within an organisation or a community of practice the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
===Session 3: Building Scenarios (31 May)===<br />
<br />
Determine the key uncertainties:<br />
* Develop a systems diagram based on the driving forces<br />
* Determine the key uncertainties<br />
* Define the scenarios<br />
* Develop causal maps for each scenario<br />
* Sketch the key stories that the scenarios will communicate<br />
<br />
===Session 4: From Scenarios to Strategy (2 June)===<br />
Improve the scenarios. What actions can be learnt from the scenario space?<br />
* Lessons from the Mont Fleur process<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Presenting the scenarios<br />
* Improving the scenarios<br />
* Learning from Scenarios in a social context<br />
<br />
==Course Assessment==<br />
The students are expected to as a group deliver a scenario set. This scenario set will address the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015 and use the theoretical material discussed during the course. The final grading of the assignments will happen on '''23 June'''<br />
<br />
Grading the course is based on 3 components: <br />
#Groupwork (research area, writing the final scenarios) 50%<br />
#Individual work ([[Object from the Future]], driving forces) 35%<br />
#Class participation (virtual and physical) 15%<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=ASSIST_BL_2005&diff=6126
ASSIST BL 2005
2005-06-14T10:40:30Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Course Assessment */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the aSSIST 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic business. The class is divided into blocks that are listed below.<br />
<br />
'''Lecturer Notes:'''<br><br />
We have changed the course outline to develop our chosen scenario focus. We shall be developing scenarios on the [[Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015]]<br><br />
Instructions how to use the WIKI are listed in the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Help Wikipedia:Help]<br><br><br><br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking, and defining a Research Space==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
==='''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (24 May)'''===<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Listing uncertainties and answering research questions relating to the [[Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015]]<br />
<br />
<br />
==='''Session 2: Under the Iceberg (26 May)'''===<br />
From uncertainties to [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* What is a Driving Force?<br />
* Developing Driving Forces from uncertainties<br />
* Interrelating the Driving Forces in Systems Diagrams (time allowing)<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
Developing the [[Driving Forces]] deeper and adding them to the WIKI database and the [[Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015]] page.<br />
<br />
==Block 2: Building Scenarios==<br />
<br />
Scenarios are a communication processes and to work within an organisation or a community of practice the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
===Session 3: Building Scenarios (31 May)===<br />
<br />
Determine the key uncertainties:<br />
* Develop a systems diagram based on the driving forces<br />
* Determine the key uncertainties<br />
* Define the scenarios<br />
* Develop causal maps for each scenario<br />
* Sketch the key stories that the scenarios will communicate<br />
<br />
===Session 4: From Scenarios to Strategy (2 June)===<br />
Improve the scenarios. What actions can be learnt from the scenario space?<br />
* Lessons from the Mont Fleur process<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Presenting the scenarios<br />
* Improving the scenarios<br />
* Learning from Scenarios in a social context<br />
<br />
==Course Assessment==<br />
The students are expected to as a group deliver a scenario set. This scenario set will address the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015 and use the theoretical material discussed during the course. <br />
<br />
Grading the course is based on 3 components: <br />
#Groupwork (research area, writing the final scenarios) 50%<br />
#Individual work ([[Object from the future]], driving forces) 35%<br />
#Class participation (virtual and physical) 15%<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6234
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:29:39Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Environmental Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces in this section include:<br><br />
[[Aging population]], [[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]], [[Community Feeling]], [[Digital Literacy]], [[Future Value of an MBA]], [[Increasing Mobility]], [[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]] and [[Violence in computer games]]<br />
<br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]====<br />
Technical driving forces include:<br><br />
[[Artificial Neural Networks]], [[Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop]], [[Gaming Industry]],[[Mobility]], [[Nanotechnology]], [[Peer-to-Peer Technology]], [[The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates]], [[The war on Spy- and Ad ware]] and [[Voice-recognition system]]<br />
<br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Including driving forces like: <br><br />
[[Greenhouse gases emissions trading]], [[Global Dimming]], [[Acid Rain]], [[E-paper solution instead of the paper work]] and [[The change of children playing sports to children playing videogames]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6117
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:27:50Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Technological Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces in this section include:<br><br />
[[Aging population]], [[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]], [[Community Feeling]], [[Digital Literacy]], [[Future Value of an MBA]], [[Increasing Mobility]], [[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]] and [[Violence in computer games]]<br />
<br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]====<br />
Technical driving forces include:<br><br />
[[Artificial Neural Networks]], [[Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop]], [[Gaming Industry]],[[Mobility]], [[Nanotechnology]], [[Peer-to-Peer Technology]], [[The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates]], [[The war on Spy- and Ad ware]] and [[Voice-recognition system]]<br />
<br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6116
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:22:21Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Societal Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces in this section include:<br><br />
[[Aging population]], [[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]], [[Community Feeling]], [[Digital Literacy]], [[Future Value of an MBA]], [[Increasing Mobility]], [[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]] and [[Violence in computer games]]<br />
<br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6115
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:22:02Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Societal Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces in this section include:<br />
[[Aging population]], [[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]], [[Community Feeling]], [[Digital Literacy]], [[Future Value of an MBA]], [[Increasing Mobility]], [[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]] and [[Violence in computer games]]<br />
<br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Societal_Driving_Forces&diff=6847
Societal Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:18:47Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[[Access of Technology and IT applications in Developing countries]]<br />
<br />
[[Aging population]]<br />
<br />
[[Buying preferences]]<br />
<br />
[[Change of personal traits]]<br />
<br />
[[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]]<br />
<br />
[[Community Feeling]]<br />
<br />
[[Computer games and health issues]]<br />
<br />
[[Consumer health informatics in the information age]]<br />
<br />
[[Decreasing attention for software development]]<br />
<br />
[[Digital Literacy]]<br />
<br />
[[Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases]]<br />
<br />
[[Future Value of an MBA]]<br />
<br />
[[Growing privacy and security concerns]]<br />
<br />
[[How violence spoils your child]]<br />
<br />
[[Increasing Mobility]]<br />
<br />
[[Increasing social isolation]]<br />
<br />
[[Islamic Fundamentalism]]<br />
<br />
[[Media Globalization]]<br />
<br />
[[Medicine]]<br />
<br />
[[Medium for Dissidence]]<br />
<br />
[[My job is not the only thing in my life ANYMORE!!!!]]<br />
<br />
[[Need for Information On Demand]]<br />
<br />
[[People's need for communication and information]]<br />
<br />
[[Pornography]]<br />
<br />
[[Power of Information-anywhere, everywhere ]]<br />
<br />
[[Religion]]<br />
<br />
[[Segmentation]]<br />
<br />
[[Suicide Bombings in Israel]]<br />
<br />
[[The Globalization of Culture (or Cultural Globalization)]]<br />
<br />
[[The growing population of overweight people]]<br />
<br />
[[Urbanization and Social Status]]<br />
<br />
[[Violence in computer games]]<br />
<br />
[[Virtual Integration]]<br />
<br />
[[Wireless is better than wire]]<br />
<br />
[[Worldwide and higher lifelong education]]<br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces?PHPSESSID=f452a4c7c27325dcd9f66460440d3a55 >>Back>>]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6114
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:15:43Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Societal Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces in this section include:<br />
<br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6112
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:13:22Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Economic Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6111
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:13:03Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Economic Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
Includes the following driving forces:<br><br />
[[E-commerce in developing countries]], [[Crisis of the capitalism]], [[Competitiveness through innovation in the technology industry]], [[Open Source]], [[Declining Dollar]], [[Chinese Families' economic condition]] and [[Alternative energy sources]]<br />
<br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Driving_Forces&diff=6110
Driving Forces
2005-06-13T14:09:50Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Political Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>A driving forces is a conceptual tool that help us understand deep trends working in the world, that have an effect on the terrain of your focal issue. <br />
<br />
Below is an introduction how to determine a driving force, a template to fill in and instructions how to upload your driving forces. These where originally meant for students, but can of course be used by anyone. <br />
<br />
[[How to determine a driving force?]]<br><br />
[[Driving Forces Template]]<br><br />
[[How to Upload a Driving Force]]<br />
<br><br />
<br><br />
<br />
====[[Political Driving Forces]]==== <br />
Driving forces you will find here include:<br><br />
[[An Open China]], [[Control of the Internet]], [[Economic Growth in China]], [[Islamic Fundamentalism]], [[Power of the United Nations]], [[Proliferation of nuclear weapons]] and [[World Unification]]<br />
<br />
====[[Economic Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Societal Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Technological Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
====[[Environmental Driving Forces]]==== <br><br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_Full_time_MBA_Class_2004 >>back>>] : To RSM Full time MBA Class 2004 <br />
<br />
[http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/LIACS_ICT_in_Business_2005 >>back>>] : To LIACS ICT in Business 2005</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6294
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T14:04:55Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Futurism */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Among others the following links can be found here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br><br />
<br />
''Examples of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br><br />
[http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br><br />
<br />
'''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''<br><br />
The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br><br />
<br />
''Two examples of what you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''International Institute for Strategic Studies'''<br><br />
[http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=6 IISS] is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers all over the world with 'the best possible objective information on military and political developments relevant tot the prospects, course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.<br><br />
<br />
'''Information on Cold Fusion'''<br><br />
[http://blake.montclair.edu/~kowalskil/cf/19loncha.html Site] with many links to articles about cold fusion. Treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br><br />
<br />
''Links that can be found here:''<br />
<br />
'''WTO Trade Statistics'''<br><br />
Up-to-date [http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#database trade statistics] by the World Trade Organisation. Statistics on World trade as well as statistics per country. Current as well as past statistics.<br><br />
<br />
'''European IT statistics'''<br><br />
[http://www.eto.org.uk/eustats/index.htm Statistics] relating to information technology in the European Union and other selected countries. Site by European Telework Online (ETO).<br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]''<br />
<br />
''The kind of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Association of Professional Futurists'''<br><br />
[http://www.profuturists.com/ Page] of a community of professional futurists.<br />
<br />
'''World Future Society'''<br><br />
The [http://www.wfs.org WFS] is an open society for people interested in the future, in social as well as technological areas. Site with forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios.</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6108
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T14:03:20Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Futurism */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Among others the following links can be found here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br><br />
<br />
''Examples of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br><br />
[http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br><br />
<br />
'''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''<br><br />
The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br><br />
<br />
''Two examples of what you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''International Institute for Strategic Studies'''<br><br />
[http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=6 IISS] is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers all over the world with 'the best possible objective information on military and political developments relevant tot the prospects, course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.<br><br />
<br />
'''Information on Cold Fusion'''<br><br />
[http://blake.montclair.edu/~kowalskil/cf/19loncha.html Site] with many links to articles about cold fusion. Treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br><br />
<br />
''Links that can be found here:''<br />
<br />
'''WTO Trade Statistics'''<br><br />
Up-to-date [http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#database trade statistics] by the World Trade Organisation. Statistics on World trade as well as statistics per country. Current as well as past statistics.<br><br />
<br />
'''European IT statistics'''<br><br />
[http://www.eto.org.uk/eustats/index.htm Statistics] relating to information technology in the European Union and other selected countries. Site by European Telework Online (ETO).<br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]<br />
<br />
''The kind of links you will find here:''<br />
<br />
'''Association of Professional Futurists'''<br />
[http://www.profuturists.com/ Page] of a community of professional futurists.<br />
<br />
====World Future Society====<br />
The [www.wfs.org WFS] is an open society for people interested in the future, in social as well as technological areas. Site with forecasts, recommendations, and alternative scenarios.</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6107
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T13:52:31Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Statistical Data */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Among others the following links can be found here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br><br />
<br />
''Examples of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br><br />
[http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br><br />
<br />
'''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''<br><br />
The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br><br />
<br />
''Two examples of what you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''International Institute for Strategic Studies'''<br><br />
[http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=6 IISS] is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers all over the world with 'the best possible objective information on military and political developments relevant tot the prospects, course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.<br><br />
<br />
'''Information on Cold Fusion'''<br><br />
[http://blake.montclair.edu/~kowalskil/cf/19loncha.html Site] with many links to articles about cold fusion. Treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br><br />
<br />
''Links that can be found here:''<br />
<br />
'''WTO Trade Statistics'''<br><br />
Up-to-date [http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#database trade statistics] by the World Trade Organisation. Statistics on World trade as well as statistics per country. Current as well as past statistics.<br><br />
<br />
'''European IT statistics'''<br><br />
[http://www.eto.org.uk/eustats/index.htm Statistics] relating to information technology in the European Union and other selected countries. Site by European Telework Online (ETO).<br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Statistical_Data&diff=6144
Statistical Data
2005-06-13T13:49:25Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>''This section contains links to useful statistical data.''<br />
<br />
<br />
===Demographical Data===<br />
<br />
====UN Department of Economic and Social affairs====<br />
UN [http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm site] with lots of useful demographical data, economical as well as social. Contains prospects of population, urbanisation and other demographical development as well.<br />
<br />
====Gender Stats====<br />
[http://devdata.worldbank.org/ Database of gender statistics] by the world bank. Contains statistics per region, theme and per country.<br />
<br />
====Interactive Map====<br />
[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Map of Europe] with different demographical data.<br />
----<br />
===Economical Statistics===<br />
<br />
====WTO Trade Statistics====<br />
Up-to-date [http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm#database trade statistics] by the World Trade Organisation. Statistics on World trade as well as statistics per country. Current as well as past statistics. <br />
----<br />
===IT Statistics===<br />
<br />
====European IT statistics====<br />
[http://www.eto.org.uk/eustats/index.htm Statistics] relating to information technology in the European Union and other selected countries. Site by European Telework Online (ETO).<br />
<br />
<br><br />
[[Scenario Thinking Portal|<<Back to the Scenario Thinking Portal<<]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6106
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T13:45:51Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Fields of Interest */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Among others the following links can be found here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br><br />
<br />
''Examples of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br><br />
[http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br><br />
<br />
'''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''<br><br />
The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br><br />
<br />
''Two examples of what you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''International Institute for Strategic Studies'''<br><br />
[http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=6 IISS] is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers all over the world with 'the best possible objective information on military and political developments relevant tot the prospects, course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.<br><br />
<br />
'''Information on Cold Fusion'''<br><br />
[http://blake.montclair.edu/~kowalskil/cf/19loncha.html Site] with many links to articles about cold fusion. Treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br />
<br><br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Fields_of_Interest&diff=6452
Fields of Interest
2005-06-13T13:44:02Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>''This section contains links to sites on different fields of interest, including business and economy, politics and science.''<br />
<br />
<br />
===Business and Economy===<br />
''This section contains links to websites about Business and Economy.''<br />
<br />
====Global Business Network====<br />
<br />
The [http://www.gbn.com/ArticlesDisplayServlet.srv?taxId=111 website] of the Global Business Network gives us valuable information concerning the economy and future trends.<br />
<br />
====World Economic Forum====<br />
The [http://www.weforum.org World Economic Forum] is an independent foundation, with representatives from many leading companies, aiming at cooperation between businesses to address global social issues like poverty. Working from the point of view that major social issues need to be addressed by working together on a global scale, and that the private sector has a responsibility to play an important role in this. <br />
Looking ahead, anticipating the future is an important tool for this organisation.<br />
<br />
====European Round Table of industrialists====<br />
[http://www.ert.be ERT] is a forum of around 45 European industrial leaders aiming at promoting the competitiveness and growth of Europe's economy.<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
===Politics===<br />
''This section contains links to political sites that are of interest for scenario thinking.''<br />
<br />
====Project for the New American Century====<br />
[http://www.pnac.info/ Page] by conservative Americans who are 'concerned with the decline in the strength of America’s defences, and in the problems this would create for the exercise of American leadership around the globe and, ultimately, for the preservation of peace.'<br><br />
And [http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1036571,00.html here] you will find a comment on this movement by the British newspaper ''The Guardian'', linking the organisation to the last war in Iraq. <br />
<br />
====International Institute for Strategic Studies====<br />
[http://www.iiss.org/showpage.php?pageID=6 IISS] is an independent organisation for conflict studies. It's aim is to provide policy makers all over the world with 'the best possible objective information on military and political developments relevant tot the prospects, course and consequences of conflict having an important military dimension'.<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
===Research, Science and Technology===<br />
''This section contains links to sites about scientific and technological development, that are of interest to scenario thinking.''<br />
<br />
====Foresight Institute====<br />
[http://www.foresight.org An institute] aiming at preparing the world for technology's to come. Mainly focused on nanotechnology. <br />
<br />
====Institute of Physics====<br />
The [http://www.iop.org/ Institute of Physics] is a promotional institute on the education and knowledge of pure and applied physics.<br><br />
Site with information about a wide range of topics concerning physics. Many free online journals on different topics, including new technologies.<br />
<br />
====Information on Cold Fusion====<br />
[http://blake.montclair.edu/~kowalskil/cf/19loncha.html Site] with many links to articles about cold fusion. Treating it as a serious scientific subject. Site and articles by Ludwik Kowalski from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Montclair State University.<br />
<br />
====Edge Foundation====<br />
A [http://www.edge.org think-tank site] for the worlds top scientists. Aimed at promoting 'inquiry into and discussion of intellectual, philosophical, artistic, and literary issues, as well as to work for the intellectual and social achievement of society.'<br />
<br />
====The Research Council of Norway==== <br />
[http://www.forskningsradet.no/forport/application?lang=en_UK The Research Council of Norway] is a national strategic body and funding agency for research and innovation activities. The Research Council covers all fields of research and innovation and works together with research institutions as well as the private and public sectors to reach the national financial goals and quality targets set in this area.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><br />
[[Scenario Thinking Portal|<<Back to the Scenario Thinking Portal<<]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6104
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T13:41:02Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Scenario Processes */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Among others the following links can be found here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br><br />
<br />
''Examples of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br><br />
[http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br><br />
<br />
'''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''<br><br />
The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br />
<br><br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6102
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T13:39:35Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Sources of Change */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br><br />
<br />
''Examples of links you will find here:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The Great Climate Flip-flop'''<br><br />
[http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1998AtlanticClimate.htm Cover article] from the Atlantic Monthly by [http://williamcalvin.com/index.html William H. Calvin]. An article on sudden climate change. <br><br />
<br />
'''Oil Depletion Analysis Centre'''<br><br />
The [http://www.odac-info.org ODAC] is an independent, educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. On the site you will find articles, assessments, news and links on the topic.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br />
<br><br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6101
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T13:34:47Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Scenario Processes */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''The National Intelligence Council'''<br />
The National Intelligence Council is a centre of strategic counselling within the US government, advising senior policy makers and the president.<br><br />
[http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html This page] contains some long term global trend scenario's on many different issues, based on intelligence information.<br><br />
<br />
'''Shell scenario page'''<br />
On [http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC2=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/zzz_lhn.html&FC3=/royal-en/html/iwgen/our_strategy/scenarios/dir_scenarios_28022005.html this site] you will find information on scenario planning by Shell. This includes information on the newest scenarios, as well as on some previous ones. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br />
<br><br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6100
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T13:30:53Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Scenario Resource Pages */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
''Includes the following links:''<br><br />
<br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
<br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br />
<br><br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Scenario_Thinking_Portal&diff=6099
Scenario Thinking Portal
2005-06-13T12:28:05Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Scenario Resource Pages */</p>
<hr />
<div>The Scenario Thinking Portal is the place where we can share our favourite URL's on scenario thinking and the future in general. You are invited to use the links provided by others. But don't forget to leave your own favourite URL's as well. <br> The idea is to accompany the links by a short description of the site.<br />
<br />
You can link a URL with a button from the editing bar. If you experience any problems, please click [http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Help:URL here] for help. <br><br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Resource Pages]]===<br />
Here you will find links to other sites that contain further links, articles and other resources. Some of those resource pages are specifically for scenario thinking and other scenario processes. Others are broader aimed and contain links to other future processes as well.<br><br />
<br />
Includes the following links:<br><br />
'''Scenario planning'''<br><br />
[http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Page] by Martin Börjesson, scenario thinker and strategist.<br> <br />
A one-page site about scenario planning, with links to information, articles, reports and more.<br><br />
'''Plausible Futures'''<br><br />
[http://www.plausiblefutures.com Page] with a wide variety of links to all kinds of views on possible futures. All links with a short description of its contents, divided by subsections. There is also a section on scenario's. <br><br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Processes]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites with scenario processes in different context. Some of them aimed at the future a specific organization or country, other aimed at the description of global future processes and trends.<br />
<br />
===[[Sources of Change]]===<br />
Some processes that we see happening now or are predicted to happen in the (near) future, are going to change the world. Here you will find links to some of those processes.<br />
<br />
===[[Fields of Interest]]===<br />
Here you will find links to many sites from different fields of interest that are interesting for people interested in scenario processes. Categorized by fields of interest such as business and economy, politics and science.''<br />
<br />
===[[Statistical Data]]===<br />
Here you will find sites with statistical data on different fields, like demographical data, economic statistics, and statistics on IT development. <br />
<br><br />
<br />
===[[Futurism]]===<br />
Here you will find links to sites about and from futurists and their activities. To see why this is a separate section, look at the link below.<br><br />
''[[What is the difference between Futurism and Scenario Thinking or Scenario Learning]]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Student_Scenarios&diff=5791
Student Scenarios
2005-05-30T13:12:25Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>Since 1996 post graduate MBA students have published scenarios on the future of the information society online as part of Daniel Erasmus's class on scenario thinking at the various business schools in the world. These more than 60 scenarios sets of which a selection is listed below and form a unique record of thinking of how the perceptions of the information society evolved from a new technology, boom and bust. Many of the predictions, controvercial at their time, have proven to be accurate in retrospect. <br><br />
At moments that Daniel Erasmus is teaching a class on scenario thinking, you will also find scenarios in process of construction on this site. <br />
<br />
If you have been involved in some of the processes, please add to this page to reflect on how thinking in scenarios aided your decisionmaking since developing the scenarios.<br><br />
<br />
<br />
===Student scenarios in process===<br />
''In this section you will find the scenarios where this year students are working on now. Please don't edit if you are not on the project. But you are more than welcome to comment on them!''<br />
<br />
<br />
[[KEMBA 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[UMBA 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[aSSIST BC 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[RSM EMBA 2005]]<br />
<br />
===Student scenarios from previous years===<br />
''Here the finished student scenarios from 1996 onward can be found, divided by content categories. The same scenarios can be found divided by the years in which they were made in [[Student Scenarios by Year]].''<br />
<br />
====Information Society====<br />
<p>[[The Future of WiFi 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of GRID computing 2015]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[Internet in 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/MBA98/scenmain6.htm The Information Society 2005] (1998)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/ideas/main.htm Ideas 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/relationships/index.html Relationships 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/crime/Main.html Crime 2015] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Fim_Markets/title.htm Distance Education 2011] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
====Internet Commerce====<br />
<p>[[The Future of the Internet in China 2015]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Broadband 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Offshore ICT Outsourcing 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/banking/Homepage.htm Internet Banking] (2002)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/ISP/main.html Free Internet Service Provision 2003] (1996)</p> <br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/E-Cash/ecash1.html Electronic Cash 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
====Telecommunications====<br />
<p>[[The Future Role of a Mobile Operator 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/communication/home.htm Telecommunications 2015] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Telecos/start.html Telcoms 2003] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
====Work and Organization====<br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/thefuture/FoBrand/index.htm Branding 2005] (1999)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/organisations/introsit.htm Organizations 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/workspace/main.htm Workspace 2010] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/E-Cash/ecash1.html Electronic Cash] (1996)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/communication/ Interpersonal Communication ]</p><br />
<br />
====Entertainment====<br />
<p>[[The Future of Console Based Games 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[http://dtn.info.nl/DTN/FutureTV.htm Television in 2010] (2000)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/broadcast/homepage.htm Broadcast Media in 2007] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Entertainment/frstpage.htm Delivery of Entertainment 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
====Health and Pharma====<br />
<p>[[The Future of the Pharmaseutical Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The future of Pharmaceuticals 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Healthcare in The Netherlands 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of HIV in South Africa 2014]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Health Insurance Industry in 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/genetics/ Genetic Revolution] (2002)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/health/Intro.htm Health in 2010] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
====Childhood====<br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2000/final/scenarios/childhood/index.htm Childhood Freedom in 2020] (2000)</p><br />
<br />
====Industry Sectors====<br />
<p>[[The Future of Software Development 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Automotive Industry 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Consumer Electronics 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Container Transport in Europe 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Banking 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Fertilizers Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Heavy Building Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/thefuture/FoLeisure/index.html Leisure 2010] (1999)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/Scenarios/Retailing/home.htm Food Retailing 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
====Globalization====<br />
<p>[[The Future of the Global Village in 2020]] (2004)</p></div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_the_Heavy_Building_Industry_2020&diff=13220
The Future of the Heavy Building Industry 2020
2005-05-27T14:55:13Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>At the Rotterdam School of Management MBA students Bas van Bokhoven, Perry Kuiper, Cor Quist, Mark Suntjens and Harrie Zeeuwen have as part of their assignment for the course New Global Business Environment looked at the future of the Heavy Building Materials Industry in Europe in 2020. [http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Heavy_Building_Industry.pdf To download their full report in PDF please click here].<br />
<br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
Many companies in the heavy building materials industry in Europe are facing challenging circumstances. Declining economic growth, a stable or declining population and tightening government budgets put pressure on investments in this sector. In addition the industry has been put in the spotlight in several countries (Netherlands, Germany) for issues regarding competition law, which has not helped the image nor the competitive environment. As the industry also consumes significant volumes of the Earth’s natural resources in terms of sand, gravel, clay and related materials, the availability of these resources may pose a challenge in the future..<br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
=== Looking for alternatives ===<br />
In the period 2015-2019 the economy slowed down to a moderate growth rate of around 2-3% per year. Due to further price increases for the natural resources and the stimulation by European parliament and other governments, many big companies within the industry really made efforts to look for alternatives. Several alliances between heavy building materials groups and research institutes emerged to investigate alternatives.<br />
<br />
=== Luxury or not?===<br />
During the period 2005-2009, the economic growth was limited to a maximum of 0,5%. Discoveries of new natural resources and an economy that slowed down building activities as well resulted in very cheap access to natural resources. Significant capacity underutilisation made it difficult for many companies to operate profitably and a race for efficiency emerged. This resulted in a trend for consolidation within the industry to search for synergy and accompanied cost savings. The abundance of natural resources, available at low prices reduced the impact of pressure from NGO’s as Greenpeace that started a lobby for resource recycling.<br />
<br />
=== Construction Paradise===<br />
In the period 2010-2014 the average family size was at a historically low but the European prosperity attracted many immigrants. Emigration to Europe was stimulated by the fact that the USA had closed their borders in 2010 and did not accept any foreigner anymore. Also, Europe needed these immigrants to do the work native Europeans did not want to do anymore and to generate the funds for the retired people. As a result, the population size of Europe was growing rapidly. New cities were being built to provide housing for the increasing population.<br />
<br />
=== Depleted earth===<br />
Only a few European countries like Poland and Germany did have sufficient resources for their construction projects. However, they were not willing to trade these resources with the other European countries. The other countries considered this behaviour as totally unacceptable. This resulted in the European war that started in 2018 and ended in 2020. <br />
<br />
<br />
[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Heavy_Building_Industry.pdf To download the full report in PDF please click here].</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_the_Fertilizers_Industry_2020&diff=13219
The Future of the Fertilizers Industry 2020
2005-05-27T14:13:22Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>At the Rotterdam School of Management MBA students Umit Cakici, Ilse van der Jagt, Juan Martinez Pelayo, Morgane Rollando and Emilio Scatalani have as part of their assignment for the course New Global Business Environment looked at the future of the Heavy Fertilizer Industry in 2020. [http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Fertilizer_Industry.pdf To download their full report in PDF please click here].<br />
<br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
As far as strategic decision making is concerned, the fertilizer industry can be considered a very traditional industry. Fertilizer manufacturers do not seem to worry about what the uncertain aspects of their futures might bring. However, to position themselves better for unexpected opportunities that come along, they should expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures.<br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
=== Heading South===<br />
In the year 2018, Maroc, Libia, Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria attracted by the unsatisfied demand for biological food in Europe, formed the OBFEC (Organisation of Biological Food Exporting Countries). They created a cartel to produce and distribute fresh healthy food in Europe without hammering the price level.<br><br />
This caused a severe reduction in the use of non biological fertilizers, warning fertilizers’ producers about the irreversibility of this process. In order to counteract the disappearing of the market, fertilizers’ producers looked at the new developing markets which at been growing at unbelievable pace.<br />
<br />
=== Environmental mania===<br />
The environmental situation as well as the international instability led to urgent summits among the most important leaders of the world in order to make decisions that could solve the problems. As usual, those leaders could not get agreement on a global decision. Protests of NGO’s, and an increasing alarm of the European population made EU act more energetically. Hence, the EU decided to meet its crisis cabinet. By 2016, the EU passed one of the most severe and strict laws never remembered until that moment.<br />
<br />
=== A new Dell===<br />
Recalling how he ordered his Dell laptop over the Internet, he started to think about adapting the “tailored to order” Dell model to the fertilizer industry. In 2014, his dream became reality and 90% of his sales were fertilizer mixes ordered through the internet. In 2015 LUHONG Fertilizer went public on the booming Shanghai stock-market. <br />
Based on this new success LU HONG looked for the next opportunity for developing the offer of fertilizers. With the new funds collected on the stock-market LU HONG set up a joint venture with HAIER electronics. The goal was to research the possibilities of automatic ordering systems for fertilizers. In 2017 the joint venture devised a soil analysis system linked to the farmers mobile network. This system made it possible to use the analysis data based on the soil analysis, crop planted and the local weather expectation for ordering the next batch of tailored fertilizer automatically through the Internet.<br />
<br />
<br />
[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Fertilizer_Industry.pdf To download the full report in PDF please click here].</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_the_Fertilizers_Industry_2020&diff=5685
The Future of the Fertilizers Industry 2020
2005-05-27T14:12:22Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>Template<br />
<br />
At the Rotterdam School of Management MBA students Umit Cakici, Ilse van der Jagt, Juan Martinez Pelayo, Morgane Rollando and Emilio Scatalani have as part of their assignment for the course New Global Business Environment looked at the future of the Heavy Fertilizer Industry in 2020. [http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Fertilizer_Industry.pdf To download their full report in PDF please click here].<br />
<br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
As far as strategic decision making is concerned, the fertilizer industry can be considered a very traditional industry. Fertilizer manufacturers do not seem to worry about what the uncertain aspects of their futures might bring. However, to position themselves better for unexpected opportunities that come along, they should expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures.<br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
=== Heading South===<br />
In the year 2018, Maroc, Libia, Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria attracted by the unsatisfied demand for biological food in Europe, formed the OBFEC (Organisation of Biological Food Exporting Countries). They created a cartel to produce and distribute fresh healthy food in Europe without hammering the price level.<br><br />
This caused a severe reduction in the use of non biological fertilizers, warning fertilizers’ producers about the irreversibility of this process. In order to counteract the disappearing of the market, fertilizers’ producers looked at the new developing markets which at been growing at unbelievable pace.<br />
<br />
=== Environmental mania===<br />
The environmental situation as well as the international instability led to urgent summits among the most important leaders of the world in order to make decisions that could solve the problems. As usual, those leaders could not get agreement on a global decision. Protests of NGO’s, and an increasing alarm of the European population made EU act more energetically. Hence, the EU decided to meet its crisis cabinet. By 2016, the EU passed one of the most severe and strict laws never remembered until that moment.<br />
<br />
=== A new Dell===<br />
Recalling how he ordered his Dell laptop over the Internet, he started to think about adapting the “tailored to order” Dell model to the fertilizer industry. In 2014, his dream became reality and 90% of his sales were fertilizer mixes ordered through the internet. In 2015 LUHONG Fertilizer went public on the booming Shanghai stock-market. <br />
Based on this new success LU HONG looked for the next opportunity for developing the offer of fertilizers. With the new funds collected on the stock-market LU HONG set up a joint venture with HAIER electronics. The goal was to research the possibilities of automatic ordering systems for fertilizers. In 2017 the joint venture devised a soil analysis system linked to the farmers mobile network. This system made it possible to use the analysis data based on the soil analysis, crop planted and the local weather expectation for ordering the next batch of tailored fertilizer automatically through the Internet.<br />
<br />
<br />
[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Fertilizer_Industry.pdf To download the full report in PDF please click here].</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Student_Scenarios&diff=5696
Student Scenarios
2005-05-27T13:39:03Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>Since 1996 post graduate MBA students have published scenarios on the future of the information society online as part of Daniel Erasmus's class on scenario thinking at the various business schools in the world. These more than 60 scenarios sets of which a selection is listed below and form a unique record of thinking of how the perceptions of the information society evolved from a new technology, boom and bust. Many of the predictions, controvercial at their time, have proven to be accurate in retrospect. <br />
At moments that Daniel Erasmus is teaching a class on scenario thinking, you will also find scenarios in process of construction on this site. <br />
<br />
If you have been involved in some of the processes, please add to this page to refect on how thinking in scenarios aided your decisionmaking since developing the scenarios.<br />
<br />
===Student scenarios in process===<br />
''In this section you will find the scenarios where this year students are working on now. Please don't edit if you are not on the project. But you are more than welcome to comment on them!''<br />
<br />
<br />
[[KEMA 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[UMBA 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[aSSIST BC 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[RSM EMBA 2005]]<br />
<br />
===Student scenarios from previous years===<br />
''Here the finished student scenarios from 1996 onward can be found, divided by content categories. The same scenarios can be found divided by the years in which they were made in [[Student Scenarios by Year]].''<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><b>Information Society</b><br />
<p>[[The Future of WiFi 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of GRID computing 2015]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[Internet in 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/MBA98/scenmain6.htm the information society 2005] (1998)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/ideas/main.htm ideas 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/relationships/index.html relationships 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/crime/Main.html crime 2015] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Fim_Markets/title.htm distance education 2011] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Internet Commerce</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Internet in China 2015]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Broadband 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Offshore ICT Outsourcing 2015]] (2004) - Insourcing creativity or dependency?</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/banking/Homepage.htm Internet banking] (2002)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/ISP/main.html free internet service provision 2003] (1996)</p> <br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/E-Cash/ecash1.html electronic cash 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Telecommunications</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future Role of a Mobile Operator 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/communication/home.htm telecommunications 2015] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Telecos/start.html telcoms 2003] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Work and Organisation</b></p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/thefuture/FoBrand/index.htm branding 2005] (1999)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/organisations/introsit.htm organisations 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/workspace/main.htm workspace 2010] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/E-Cash/ecash1.html electronic cash] (1996)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/communication/ interpersonal communication ]</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Entertainment</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Console Based Games 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[http://dtn.info.nl/DTN/FutureTV.htm television in 2010] (2000)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/broadcast/homepage.htm broadcast media in 2007] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Entertainment/frstpage.htm delivery of entertainment 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Health and Pharma</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Pharmaseutical Industry 2020]] (2004) - A health check or a healthy cheque?</p><br />
<p>[[The future of Pharmaceuticals 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Healthcare in The Netherlands 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of HIV in South Africa 2014]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Health Insurance Industry in 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/genetics/ genetic revolution] (2002)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/health/Intro.htm health in 2010] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Childhood</b></p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2000/final/scenarios/childhood/index.htm childhood freedom in 2020] (2000)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Industry Sectors</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Software Development 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Automotive Industry 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Consumer Electronics 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Container Transport in Europe 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Banking 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Fertilizers Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Heavy Building Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/thefuture/FoLeisure/index.html leisure 2010] (1999)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/Scenarios/Retailing/home.htm food retailing 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b> Globalization</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Global Village in 2020]] (2004)</p></div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Banking_2015&diff=13218
The Future of Banking 2015
2005-05-27T13:35:06Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>At the Rotterdam School of Management MBA students Bas Bruijninckx, Marijn Hakker, Pieter Kappelhof, Rien Nijman and Bert Zwiers have as part of their assignment for the course New Global Business Environment looked at the future of Banking in 2015. [http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_Banking.pdf To download their full report in PDF please click here].<br />
<br />
<br />
== Introduction: The official future==<br />
Banks are nowadays becoming more and more virtual. Shops are being closed; web sites and online banking facilities are introduced. “Trust” in a bank stands or falls with its virtual presentation, the (perceived) security as offered and the ease of use of its online banking application. Consolidation is a significant and ongoing industry process..<br><br><br />
<br />
==Scenarios==<br />
===Ubiquitous financial services===<br />
In a world where trust is still mediated physically (but also experiences a lot of successful new entrants in the financial services industry), financial services become ubiquitous. Car dealers provide loans for your car; the grocery store gives you a credit card to finance your shopping in that store; etcetera. <br />
<br />
===eMoney© lines your eWallet© ===<br />
Where trust is mediated and virtual players enter the arena of financial services, money will no longer need to be tangible. Financial services companies offer eWallets© that contain eMoney© which can be used for ePurchases as well eMoney© transfer to others and payment for products or services in brick and mortar shops. <br />
<br />
===The Butler Bank===<br />
New players in the industry are unsuccessful in providing financial services. The traditional banks keep on reigning in the world of personal finance. However, banks focus on smaller segments of clients and provide more than just banking services to them. In effect, banks become their clients’ Butler.<br />
<br />
<br />
[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_Banking.pdf To download the full report in PDF please click here].</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_the_Heavy_Building_Industry_2020&diff=5686
The Future of the Heavy Building Industry 2020
2005-05-23T16:07:50Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Heavy_Building_Industry.pdf full report]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_the_Fertilizers_Industry_2020&diff=5684
The Future of the Fertilizers Industry 2020
2005-05-23T16:07:01Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_the_Fertilizer_Industry.pdf full report]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Banking_2015&diff=5681
The Future of Banking 2015
2005-05-23T16:06:11Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_Banking.pdf full report]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_the_Health_Insurance_Industry_in_2010&diff=5661
The Future of the Health Insurance Industry in 2010
2005-05-23T16:04:34Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Health_Insurance_2010.pdf full report]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_HIV_in_South_Africa_2014&diff=5660
The Future of HIV in South Africa 2014
2005-05-23T16:03:33Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/HIV_in_SA.pdf full report]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Healthcare_in_The_Netherlands_2015&diff=5659
The Future of Healthcare in The Netherlands 2015
2005-05-23T16:02:32Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_healthcare_Netherlands.pdf</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Research-Based_Pharmaceutical_Companies_2015&diff=5658
The Future of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies 2015
2005-05-23T16:01:50Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_Reasearch_Based_Pharmaceutical_Companies.pdf</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_Pharmaceuticals_2020&diff=5656
The future of Pharmaceuticals 2020
2005-05-23T14:00:37Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_of_Pharmaceuticals.pdf To download full report in PDF please click here]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_Role_of_a_Mobile_Operator_2010&diff=5655
The Future Role of a Mobile Operator 2010
2005-05-23T13:57:48Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Role_of_a_mobile_operator_2010.pdf To download full report in PDF please click here]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Student_Scenarios&diff=5511
Student Scenarios
2005-05-23T13:56:10Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>Since 1996 post graduate MBA students have published scenarios on the future of the information society online as part of Daniel Erasmus's class on scenario thinking at the various business schools in the world. These more than 60 scenarios sets of which a selection is listed below and form a unique record of thinking of how the perceptions of the information society evolved from a new technology, boom and bust. Many of the predictions, controvercial at their time, have proven to be accurate in retrospect. <br />
At moments that Daniel Erasmus is teaching a class on scenario thinking, you will also find scenarios in process of construction on this site. <br />
<br />
If you have been involved in some of the processes, please add to this page to refect on how thinking in scenarios aided your decisionmaking since developing the scenarios.<br />
<br />
===Student scenarios in process===<br />
''In this section you will find the scenarios where this year students are working on now. Please don't edit if you are not on the project. But you are more than welcome to comment on them!''<br />
<br />
<br />
[[KEMA 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[UMBA 2005]]<br />
<br />
[[aSSIST BC 2005]]<br />
<br />
===Student scenarios from previous years===<br />
''Here the finished student scenarios from 1996 onward can be found, divided by content categories. The same scenarios can be found divided by the years in which they were made in [[Student Scenarios by Year]].''<br />
<br />
<br />
# [[Energy scenarios]] - Running out of energy and creating it?<br />
# [[Banking in future]] - Some ideas on why some may be laughing all the way to the bank...<br />
<br />
<br />
<br><b>Information Society</b><br />
<p>[[The Future of WiFi 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of GRID computing 2015]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[Internet in 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/MBA98/scenmain6.htm the information society 2005] (1998)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/ideas/main.htm ideas 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/relationships/index.html relationships 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/crime/Main.html crime 2015] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Fim_Markets/title.htm distance education 2011] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Internet Commerce</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Internet in China 2015]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Broadband 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Offshore ICT Outsourcing 2015]] (2004) - Insourcing creativity or dependency?</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/banking/Homepage.htm Internet banking] (2002)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/ISP/main.html free internet service provision 2003] (1996)</p> <br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/E-Cash/ecash1.html electronic cash 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Telecommunications</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future Role of a Mobile Operator 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/communication/home.htm telecommunications 2015] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Telecos/start.html telcoms 2003] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Work and Organisation</b></p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/thefuture/FoBrand/index.htm branding 2005] (1999)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/organisations/introsit.htm organisations 2020] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/workspace/main.htm workspace 2010] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/E-Cash/ecash1.html electronic cash] (1996)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/communication/ interpersonal communication ]</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Entertainment</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Console Based Games 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[http://dtn.info.nl/DTN/FutureTV.htm television in 2010] (2000)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/broadcast/homepage.htm broadcast media in 2007] (1997)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/Entertainment/frstpage.htm delivery of entertainment 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Health and Pharma</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Pharmaseutical Industry 2020]] (2004) - A health check or a healthy cheque?</p><br />
<p>[[The future of Pharmaceuticals 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Healthcare in The Netherlands 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of HIV in South Africa 2014]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Health Insurance Industry in 2010]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2002/genetics/ genetic revolution] (2002)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/scenarios/health/Intro.htm health in 2010] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Childhood</b></p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/RSM2000/final/scenarios/childhood/index.htm childhood freedom in 2020] (2000)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b>Industry Sectors</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Software Development 2010]] (2005)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Automotive Industry 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Atomotive_Industry.pdf Automotive industry 2015] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Consumer_Electronic_Scenarios.pdf Consumer electronics 2015] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Consumer Electronics 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/ContainerTransportEurope2020/Intro.html Container transport Europe 2020] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Container Transport in Europe 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of Banking 2015]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Fertilizers Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Heavy Building Industry 2020]] (2004)</p><br />
<p>[http://www.dtn.net/content/thefuture/FoLeisure/index.html leisure 2010] (1999)</p><br />
<p>[http://ww2.rsm.nl/dtn/Scenarios/Retailing/home.htm food retailing 2006] (1996)</p><br />
<br />
<br><p><b> Globalization</b></p><br />
<p>[[The Future of the Global Village in 2020]] (2004)</p></div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_Future_of_Broadband_2010&diff=5652
The Future of Broadband 2010
2005-05-23T13:54:18Z
<p>80.126.19.114: </p>
<hr />
<div>[http://homeserver.eu.archive.org/~daniel/Scenarios/2004/RSMPartTime/Future_Broadband.pdf To download the full report in PDF please click here]</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Main_Page&diff=5663
Main Page
2005-05-20T14:52:33Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Driving Forces */</p>
<hr />
<div>==Introduction==<br />
Welcome to the open community on scenario thinking. ScenarioThinking.org the open space where we can publish scenarios, reflect on the process, share resources in an open transparent manner. ScenarioThinking.org is currently sponsored by [http://www.dtn.net the DTN], which since 1996 has been publishing scenarios online to grow the public discourse in this space. The philosophy is that we all benefit by sharing our thinking about this unique 30 year old process.<br />
<br />
Material on this site is published under the creative commons licence and may be shared and used freely, as long as they cite the source. We encourage everybody to use scenario thinking, to aid more rational and long-term thinking in our organisations and institutions.<br />
<br />
==[[Agenda]]==<br />
This is the place to keep each other posted on [[Agenda|Coming Events]] that have something to do with scenario's or are interesting for people involved in scenario's or interested in scenario thinking and scenario processes.<br />
<br />
==Resources==<br />
<br />
===[[Scenario Thinking Portal]]===<br />
The [[Scenario Thinking Portal]] is the place where we can share and access the best resources on the web on anything that has to do with scenario thinking. Including links to scenario resource pages, example scenarios, sources of change and anything you can come up with and have some interesting links to.<br />
<br />
===[[Driving Forces]]===<br />
We already have many [[Driving Forces]] available here. Have a look at them, use them for your own purposes and add driving forces you have identified yourself. This way we will have a database of driving forces that allows us quick insight on important developments. We have driving forces that explore the political, social, economic, environmental and economical changes in the world. Feel free to add another category.<br />
<br />
===[[Example Scenarios]]===<br />
This is the page for [[Example Scenarios]]. Through those scenario's we can learn from each other through each other’s work</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=KEMBA_2005&diff=4695
KEMBA 2005
2005-05-17T17:38:41Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the KEMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into blocks which are listed below.<br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (22 May)'''<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Defining the Focal Issue (in class)<br />
*Add scenario definition and team members to [[KEMBA 2005 Scenario Page]]<br />
*Add research questions to group page<br />
*Answer research questions <br />
*Finding [[Driving Forces]] (each student to find 2 driving forces, add that to the section, and bring a printed version to the class)<br />
<br />
==Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking==<br />
Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space. Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios. The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking. During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 2: Systems Thinking (Content- 28 May)'''<br />
* Introduction to business simulation<br />
* Introduction systems thinking<br />
* Causal modelling of complex situations<br />
* Systems case:<br />
** Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs<br />
** Traffic in Mexico City<br />
** Dr. Beecham and the end of British Rail<br />
<br />
'''Session 3: Systems Practice (Workshop- 28 May)'''<br />
* Systems and Assumptions<br />
* Building systemic diagrams of the scenario space (focal issue) based on the driving forces<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
* Finish the systems diagram and add final diagram to the group web site<br />
<br />
==Block 3 The new electronic context==<br />
This block explores how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.<br />
<br />
'''Session 4: The second wave of the Internet (29 May)'''<br />
There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.<br />
<br />
==Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy==<br />
<br />
This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy. Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 5: From Scenarios to Strategy: (4 June)'''<br><br />
''Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios''<br><br />
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:<br />
* a multi-client set developed in 2002 '''Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007''', and <br />
* A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephony<br />
''Theory: Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios''<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context<br />
* Scenario Process Comparisons<br />
* Real options theory and the scenario approach<br />
* Learning from Scenarios<br />
<br />
'''Session 6: Presentation (4 June)'''<br><br />
Presenting each groups final scenarios. Each group presents their scenarios to the rest of the group for feedback and learning.<br />
* 20 minutes each, with 10 min questions<br />
* Invited people from the respective organisations to respond to the scenarios<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=KEMBA_2005&diff=4694
KEMBA 2005
2005-05-17T17:38:04Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the KEMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into blocks which are listed below.<br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (22 May)'''<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Defining the Focal Issue (in class)<br />
*Add scenario definition and team members to [[KEMBA 2005 Scenario Page]]<br />
*Add research questions to group page<br />
*Answer research questions <br />
*Finding [[Driving Forces]] (each student to find 2 driving forces, add that to the section, and bring a printed version to the class)<br />
<br />
==Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking==<br />
Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space. Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios. The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking. During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 2: Systems Thinking (Content- 28 May)'''<br />
* Introduction to business simulation<br />
* Introduction systems thinking<br />
* Causal modelling of complex situations<br />
* Systems case:<br />
** Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs<br />
** Traffic in Mexico City<br />
** Dr. Beecham and the end of British Rail<br />
<br />
'''Session 3: Systems Practice (Workshop- 28 May)'''<br />
* Systems and Assumptions<br />
* Building systemic diagrams of the scenario space (focal issue) based on the driving forces<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
* Finish the systems diagram and add final diagram to the group web site<br />
<br />
==Block 3 The new electronic context==<br />
This block explores how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.<br />
<br />
'''Session 4: The second wave of the Internet (29 May)'''<br />
There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.<br />
<br />
==Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy==<br />
<br />
This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy. Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 5: From Scenarios to Strategy: (4 June)'''<br><br />
''Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios''<br><br />
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:<br />
* a multi-client set developed in 2002 '''Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007''', and <br />
* A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephony<br />
''Theory: Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios''<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context<br />
* Scenario Process Comparisons<br />
* Real options theory and the scenario approach<br />
* Learning from Scenarios<br />
<br />
'''Session 6 (Content & Presentation) (4 June)'''<br><br />
Presenting the groups final scenarios. Each group presents their scenarios to the rest of the group for feedback and learning.<br />
* 20 minutes each, with 10 min questions<br />
* Invited people from the respective organisations to respond to the scenarios<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=KEMBA_2005&diff=4693
KEMBA 2005
2005-05-17T17:37:35Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the KEMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into blocks which are listed below.<br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (22 May)'''<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Defining the Focal Issue (in class)<br />
*Add scenario definition and team members to [[KEMBA 2005 Scenario Page]]<br />
*Add research questions to group page<br />
*Answer research questions <br />
*Finding [[Driving Forces]] (each student to find 2 driving forces, add that to the section, and bring a printed version to the class)<br />
<br />
==Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking==<br />
Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space. Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios. The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking. During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 2: Systems Thinking (Content- 28 May)'''<br />
* Introduction to business simulation<br />
* Introduction systems thinking<br />
* Causal modelling of complex situations<br />
* Systems case:<br />
** Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs<br />
** Traffic in Mexico City<br />
** Dr. Beecham and the end of British Rail<br />
<br />
'''Session 3: Systems Practice (Workshop- 28 May)'''<br />
* Systems and Assumptions<br />
* Building systemic diagrams of the scenario space (focal issue) based on the driving forces<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
* Finish the systems diagram and add final diagram to the group web site<br />
<br />
==Block 3 The new electronic context==<br />
This block explores how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.<br />
<br />
'''Session 4: The second wave of the Internet (29 May)'''<br />
There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.<br />
<br />
==Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy==<br />
<br />
This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy. Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 5: From Scenarios to Strategy: (4 June)'''<br><br />
''Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios''<br><br />
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:<br />
* a multi-client set developed in 2002 '''Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007''', and <br />
* A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephone<br />
''Theory: Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios''<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context<br />
* Scenario Process Comparisons<br />
* Real options theory and the scenario approach<br />
* Learning from Scenarios<br />
<br />
'''Session 6 (Content & Presentation) (4 June)'''<br><br />
Presenting the groups final scenarios. Each group presents their scenarios to the rest of the group for feedback and learning.<br />
* 20 minutes each, with 10 min questions<br />
* Invited people from the respective organisations to respond to the scenarios<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=KEMBA_2005&diff=4692
KEMBA 2005
2005-05-17T17:34:26Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the KEMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into blocks which are listed below.<br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (22 May)'''<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Defining the Focal Issue (in class)<br />
*Add scenario definition and team members to [[KEMBA 2005 Scenario Page]]<br />
*Add research questions to group page<br />
*Answer research questions <br />
*Finding [[Driving Forces]] (each student to find 2 driving forces, add that to the section, and bring a printed version to the class)<br />
<br />
==Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking==<br />
Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space. Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios. The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking. During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 2: Systems Thinking (Content- 28 May)'''<br />
* Introduction to business simulation<br />
* Introduction systems thinking<br />
* Causal modelling of complex situations<br />
* Systems case:<br />
** Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs<br />
** Traffic in Mexico City<br />
** Dr. Beecham and the end of British Rail<br />
<br />
'''Session 3: Systems Practice (Workshop- 28 May)'''<br />
* Systems and Assumptions<br />
* Building systemic diagrams of the scenario space (focal issue) based on the driving forces<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
* Finish the systems diagram and add final diagram to the group web site<br />
<br />
==Block 3 The new electronic context==<br />
This block explores how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.<br />
<br />
'''Session 4: The second wave of the Internet (29 May)'''<br />
There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.<br />
<br />
==Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy==<br />
<br />
This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy. Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 5: From Scenarios to Strategy:'''<br><br />
''Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios''<br><br />
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:<br />
* a multi-client set developed in 2002 '''Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007''', and <br />
* A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephone<br />
''Theory: Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios''<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context<br />
* Scenario Process Comparisons<br />
* Real options theory and the scenario approach<br />
* Learning from Scenarios<br />
<br />
'''Session 6 (Content & Presentation)'''<br><br />
Presenting the groups final scenarios. Each group presents their scenarios to the rest of the group for feedback and learning.<br />
* 20 minutes each, with 10 min questions<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=KEMBA_2005&diff=4691
KEMBA 2005
2005-05-17T17:14:26Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the KEMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into blocks which are listed below.<br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (22 May)'''<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Defining the Focal Issue (in class)<br />
*Add scenario definition and team members to [[KEMBA 2005 Scenario Page]]<br />
*Add research questions to group page<br />
*Answer research questions <br />
*Finding [[Driving Forces]] (each student to find 2 driving forces, add that to the section, and bring a printed version to the class)<br />
<br />
==Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking==<br />
Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space. Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios. The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking. During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 2: Systems Thinking (Content- 28 May)'''<br />
* Introduction to business simulation<br />
* Introduction systems thinking<br />
* Causal modelling of complex situations<br />
* Systems case:<br />
** Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs<br />
** Traffic in Mexico City<br />
** Dr. Beecham and the end of British Rail<br />
<br />
'''Session 3: Systems Practice (Workshop- 28 May)'''<br />
* Systems and Assumptions<br />
* Building systemic diagrams of the scenario space (focal issue) based on the driving forces<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
* Finish the systems diagram and add final diagram to the group web site<br />
<br />
==Block 3 The new electronic context==<br />
This block explores how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.<br />
<br />
'''Session 4: The second wave of the Internet (29 May)'''<br />
There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.<br />
<br />
==Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy==<br />
<br />
This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy. Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 5: Strategy: Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios'''<br><br />
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:<br />
* a multi-client set developed in 2002 '''Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007''', and <br />
* A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephone<br />
'''Theory: Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios'''<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context<br />
* Scenario Process Comparisons<br />
* Real options theory and the scenario approach<br />
* Learning from Scenarios<br />
<br />
'''Session 6 (Content & Presentation)'''<br><br />
Presenting the groups final scenarios. Each group presents their scenarios to the rest of the group for feedback and learning.<br />
* 20 minutes each, with 10 min questions<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114
https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=KEMBA_2005&diff=4690
KEMBA 2005
2005-05-17T17:13:39Z
<p>80.126.19.114: /* Block 3 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy */</p>
<hr />
<div>Welcome to the KEMBA 2005 page dedicated to our class on strategic ICT and e-Business. The class is divided into blocks which are listed below.<br />
<br />
==Block 1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking==<br />
In this block the course participants are introduced to the historical background and theory of scenario thinking. Different scenario methodologies are introduced. A practical strategic dilemma (from a participant’s organisation) is chosen to form the focus of the group scenario process. An example scenario process is described.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 1: Scenario Thinking (22 May)'''<br />
* Introduction<br />
* Strategies for Dealing with Complexity<br />
* Scenario Thinking:<br />
* A creative process<br />
** A multidisciplinary process<br />
** An exploratory process<br />
** A process with results<br />
** An ongoing process<br />
* Determining [[Driving Forces]]<br />
* Scenario thinking in practice<br />
<br />
'''Homework:'''<br />
*Defining the Focal Issue (in class)<br />
*Add scenario definition and team members to [[KEMBA 2005 Scenario Page]]<br />
*Add research questions to group page<br />
*Answer research questions <br />
*Finding [[Driving Forces]] (each student to find 2 driving forces, add that to the section, and bring a printed version to the class)<br />
<br />
==Block 2 Introduction to Systems Thinking==<br />
Systemic thinking, developed to explain ecosystems in 1950s, is an essential part of the scenario thinkers knapsack. This block introduces systems thinking, the underlying concepts of business simulation and the practice of creating systems models of the scenario space. Several stories are used to demonstrate the awareness of systems thinking and how they can be used in the construction of scenarios. The policy failure of Ronald Reagan’s “War on Drugs” during the 1980s is modelled using systems thinking. During the workshop session the participants will develop systems models for their scenario focal issue.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 2: Systems Thinking (Content- 28 May)'''<br />
* Introduction to business simulation<br />
* Introduction systems thinking<br />
* Causal modelling of complex situations<br />
* Systems case:<br />
** Ronald Reagan’s War on Drugs<br />
** Traffic in Mexico City<br />
** Dr. Beecham and the end of British Rail<br />
<br />
'''Session 3: Systems Practice (Workshop- 28 May)'''<br />
* Systems and Assumptions<br />
* Building systemic diagrams of the scenario space (focal issue) based on the driving forces<br />
<br />
'''Homework'''<br />
* Finish the systems diagram and add final diagram to the group web site<br />
<br />
==Block 3 The new electronic context==<br />
This block explores how the Internet is changing and looks ahead at networks in the next 5 years.<br />
<br />
'''Session 4: The second wave of the Internet (29 May)'''<br />
There is a second wave emerging of Internet business driven by broadband, bottom up web technologies, desktop video, 3G telephony and visualisation.<br />
<br />
==Block 4 Final scenarios and tie in to organizational strategy==<br />
<br />
This block explores the tie from scenarios to strategy. Scenarios are a communication processes and work within an organisation the scenario stories must capture the imagination of the people in the organisation. This block develops the scenarios from systems diagrams to stories, exploring what narrative structures and modes of representation work and fail. The different modes of developing strategy from scenarios and their successes and failures are critically evaluated.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Session 5: Strategy: Case Investing in 3G Vodafone Future of M-Commerce Scenarios'''<br><br />
During 1999/2000 at the crest of the dotcom wave UMTS licences were sold in Europe to potential Third Generation mobile telephone operators. The DTN developed scenarios for Vodafone looking 5 years into the future of mobile commerce. The case of these practical scenarios are explored to develop forward looking ICT strategy. These scenarios are now made public to be discussed and are informed by:<br />
* a multi-client set developed in 2002 '''Mobile Internet Scenarios in 2007''', and <br />
* A Telenor sponsored 1st glance scenarios developed in 2004 looking at the future of 3rd generation telephone<br />
'''Lessons to Develop and ICT strategy from Scenarios''<br />
* Scenarios to strategy<br />
* Scenario and strategy mapping the organisational context<br />
* Scenario Process Comparisons<br />
* Real options theory and the scenario approach<br />
* Learning from Scenarios<br />
<br />
'''Session 6 (Content & Presentation)'''<br><br />
Presenting the groups final scenarios. Each group presents their scenarios to the rest of the group for feedback and learning.<br />
* 20 minutes each, with 10 min questions<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
</div>
80.126.19.114