ScenarioThinking - Recent changes [en]

Future of Innovation Main Page

2010-09-06T18:20:12Z

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	* The ergonomics of innovation - [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/The_ergonomics_of_innovation_2197]		* The ergonomics of innovation - [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/The_ergonomics_of_innovation_2197]
	* Succeeding at open-source innovation: An interview with Mozilla’s Mitchell Baker [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/Succeeding_at_open-source_innovation__An_interview_with_Mozillas_Mitchell_Baker_2098]		* Succeeding at open-source innovation: An interview with Mozilla’s Mitchell Baker [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/Succeeding_at_open-source_innovation__An_interview_with_Mozillas_Mitchell_Baker_2098]
		+	* Leadership and innovation report 2008 [http://www.strategyexecution.in/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/Innovation__Execution.513527.pdf]

	<h3>Want to know even more about scenarios? </h3>		<h3>Want to know even more about scenarios? </h3>

Climate Change Negotiations

2010-09-06T16:11:21Z

Numbers That Matter Presentation:

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	= Numbers That Matter Presentation =		= Numbers That Matter Presentation =

		+	[[Antiretroviral_Therapy_Programme_for_South_Africa\|ART Programme in South Africa]]

	= Introduction =		= Introduction =

Mardi Gras

2010-09-06T16:06:54Z

2010:

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	=Overview=		=Overview=
	Continuously increased public pressure and local climate disasters made governments to make some agreement on emissions reduction policies. Some countries like India and China started looking for the solution of energy consumption increase in nuclear power or "alternative" energy sources. <br><br>		Continuously increased public pressure and local climate disasters made governments to make some agreement on emissions reduction policies. Some countries like India and China started looking for the solution of energy consumption increase in nuclear power or "alternative" energy sources. <br><br>
-	After failed negotiation talks in 2010 and 2011, EU decides to restrict carbon emission by carbon trading within its own region and successfully implements it ~~([[Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics]])~~. This move is mainly driven by [[Increasing influence of media]], [[Position of Corporates]] and [[Dynamics of Public Support]]. Afterwards the EU introduced import duties on countries with high emissions (without emission targets) and China shortly afterwards followed this model because the country was affected by several [[Catastrophes - Acts of God]]. ~~The~~ money derived from this import duties ~~was~~ redistributed to developing countries for education and implementation of emission reducing measures. ~~<br>~~<br>	+	After failed negotiation talks in 2010 and 2011, EU decides to restrict carbon emission [[Carbon_Trading,_Finances_and_related_Economics\|by carbon trading]] within its own region and successfully implements it. This move is mainly driven by [[Increasing influence of media\|media pressure]], by [[Position of Corporates\|corporations]] and by [[Dynamics of Public Support\|increasing public attention]]. Afterwards the EU introduced import duties on countries with high emissions (without emission targets) and China shortly afterwards followed this model because the country was affected by several [[Catastrophes - Acts of God\|catastrophes]]. Part of the money derived from this import duties were redistributed to developing countries for education and implementation of emission reducing measures. <br>
-	During the end of ~~this~~ ten years period USA also implemented emission reduction targets ~~for its~~ country ~~to be an example for the developing countries~~. USA wanted to push mainly ~~the~~ BRIC nations to ~~also~~ put targets~~. In this way their economic growth should be stopped~~. ~~<br>~~<br>	+	During the end of these ten years period USA also implemented emission reduction targets inside the country. USA wanted to push mainly BRIC nations to put the targets. <br>
-	~~However, the~~ funds mainly from the import duties provided enough finances so that the most important developing countries were able to invest in emission reducing measures without harming their GDP growth. So in the end also these countries implemented reduction targets and fulfilled them. ~~<br>~~<br>	+	The funds mainly from the import duties provided enough finances so that the most important developing countries were able to invest in emission reducing measures without harming significantly their GDP growth. So in the end also these countries implemented reduction targets and fulfilled them. <br>

	=2010=		=2010=
-	After a spectacular fiasco of Copenhagen 2010 Negotiations following discussions did not bring much results and no one really believed that Cancun, planned for the end of the year, will make any difference. The sixteenth Conference of the Parties (COP) and the sixth Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) was held in Cancun, Mexico, from 29 November to 10 December 2010. The expectations from media and public all over the world before that meeting to the participants were high after the disaster in the previous conference in Copenhagen. It was mainly expected to agree upon a protocol that ~~commits~~ all participants to reduce its GHG emissions to a reasonable level~~. The result would be a lower increase of the global temperature under the 2º Celsius marker~~. This ~~would~~ be the protocol succeeding the Kyoto Protocol~~, which is ran down in 2012~~, but with tougher limits for the countries.<br>	+	After a spectacular fiasco of Copenhagen 2010 Negotiations following discussions did not bring much results and no one really believed that Cancun, planned for the end of the year, will make any difference. It was mainly expected to agree upon main parts of a protocol that should commit all participants to reduce its GHG emissions to a reasonable level. This was supposed to be the protocol succeeding the Kyoto Protocol, but with some tougher limits for the countries, allowing to fix GHG concentration in the atmosphere at the level at or below 450 ppm.<br>
-	However, the reality showed that expectations were too high. The draft for the new protocol (LCA) prepared in Bonn (Germany) and Tianjin (China) was not agreed upon. This was even a bigger disaster in the eyes of the observer of this conference and more baneful and alarming for all experts than after the Copenhagen conference. Each delay in the climate negotiations would mean that a reduction of GHG in the atmosphere and thus a reduction of the global temperature increase are more and more impossible to achieve. An achievement of this was only ~~meaningful~~ if all countries ~~in the world~~ limit their GHG emissions. <br>	+	However, the reality showed that those expectations were too high. The draft for the new protocol (LCA) prepared in Bonn (Germany) and Tianjin (China) was not agreed upon. Again. This was even a bigger disaster in the eyes of the observer of this conference and more baneful and alarming for all experts than after the Copenhagen conference. Each delay in the climate negotiations would mean that a reduction of GHG in the atmosphere and thus a reduction of the global temperature increase are more and more impossible to achieve. An achievement of this was only possible if all countries would limit their GHG emissions. <br>
	However nature already started giving humanity some clues on later events. Earthquakes in China and Chile, forest fires in Russia and flood in Pakistan were followed by extremely cold winter in Western Europe and part of Northern America.<br>		However nature already started giving humanity some clues on later events. Earthquakes in China and Chile, forest fires in Russia and flood in Pakistan were followed by extremely cold winter in Western Europe and part of Northern America.<br>
-	~~And despite the fact that statements were more populist that anything else, they locked some attention asking to pay attention to 'the climate catastrophe that is already going on'.<br>~~	+	Following couple of years was about further fighting and struggling around climate change negotiations. Those years brought new local tragedies in a face of floods, droughts and fires. However they also brought full support to project REDD from EU and some agreement on LCA content amongst leading economies, fixing somewhat "average" options in most.<br>
-	Following couple of years ~~were followed by~~ fighting and struggling around climate change. Those years brought new local tragedies in a face of floods, droughts and fires. However they also brought full support to project REDD from EU and some agreement on LCA content amongst leading economies, fixing somewhat "average" options in most.<br>	+
	So what happened? Or better: What did not happen, that the most important parties in these negotiations were so relaxed and were not able to attain a consensus? <br><br>		So what happened? Or better: What did not happen, that the most important parties in these negotiations were so relaxed and were not able to attain a consensus? <br><br>
	USA was mostly concerned for its own industry. Companies from the EU region were at that time leaders in green technology, so USA did not see an advantage in this. GHG abatement would mean higher costs for the US industry, so their standpoint was not to reduce GHGs. <br><br>		USA was mostly concerned for its own industry. Companies from the EU region were at that time leaders in green technology, so USA did not see an advantage in this. GHG abatement would mean higher costs for the US industry, so their standpoint was not to reduce GHGs. <br><br>
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	The EU harbored many companies active on the green technology sector (wind turbines, solar power generation, efficiency improvement, etc.). These companies saw a worldwide market once an agreement on UN level would have been reached. So there were heavily lobbying to their governments and the EU representatives in the UN conferences to establish global GHG abatement rules. <br>		The EU harbored many companies active on the green technology sector (wind turbines, solar power generation, efficiency improvement, etc.). These companies saw a worldwide market once an agreement on UN level would have been reached. So there were heavily lobbying to their governments and the EU representatives in the UN conferences to establish global GHG abatement rules. <br>
	In the meanwhile the EU started to implement carbon trading within its region and between the EU member countries. This project was also pushed by the pressure on EU governments by the European citizens. The public awareness in the EU about the necessity of measures mitigating climate change had been high before the meeting in Cancun. However, mainly NGOs were waking up the people and so the governments could feel the rising pressure, that something needs to be done. <br><br>		In the meanwhile the EU started to implement carbon trading within its region and between the EU member countries. This project was also pushed by the pressure on EU governments by the European citizens. The public awareness in the EU about the necessity of measures mitigating climate change had been high before the meeting in Cancun. However, mainly NGOs were waking up the people and so the governments could feel the rising pressure, that something needs to be done. <br><br>
-	On the economic field, indications for China’s growth were becoming more and more evident. The EU was at that time China’s biggest trading partner and China was the 2nd biggest for the EU (after the U.S.). The signs were directing towards China becoming the number one also for the EU. ~~(See also:[http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/china/EU on trade with China])~~	+	On the economic field, indications for China’s growth were becoming more and more evident. The EU was at that time China’s biggest trading partner and China was the 2nd biggest for the EU (after the U.S.). The signs were directing towards China becoming the number one also for the EU.

	=2011 - 2013=		=2011 - 2013=

Climate Change Negotiations

2010-09-06T15:41:45Z

Scenario Tree:

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	= Scenario Tree =		= Scenario Tree =
-	~~[[File:Scenario tree~~.~~jpg\|600px\|thumb\|centre\|The Scenario Tree]]~~<br>	+	Overwrote by other team.<br>

	= Scenario Stories =		= Scenario Stories =

Future of Innovation Main Page

2010-09-06T14:50:07Z

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	''Big picture questions:'' <br>		''Big picture questions:'' <br>
	1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no)		1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no)
-	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br><br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|~~200px~~\|right]]	+	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br><br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|300px\|right]]
	3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>		3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>
	<br>		<br>
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	*In the connected world, will people organise themselves into groups with collective purpose? (yes/no) <br>		*In the connected world, will people organise themselves into groups with collective purpose? (yes/no) <br>
	Yes - The power of the crowd <br>		Yes - The power of the crowd <br>
-	* Will companies adopt and establish an effective system for open innovation? <br>	+	* Will companies adopt and establish an effective system for open innovation? <br>[[File:Scenario_tree_innovation.jpg\|400px\|right]]
	Yes - Open Big Brand World <br>		Yes - Open Big Brand World <br>
	No - Empire with Walls<br>		No - Empire with Walls<br>

File:Scenario tree innovation.jpg

2010-09-06T14:46:56Z

uploaded "[[File:Scenario tree innovation.jpg]]"

New page

File:Scenario tree.jpg

2010-09-06T14:41:21Z

uploaded a new version of "[[File:Scenario tree.jpg]]"

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Future of Innovation Main Page

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	''Big picture questions:'' <br>		''Big picture questions:'' <br>
	1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no)		1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no)
-	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br><br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|~~400px~~\|right]]	+	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br><br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|200px\|right]]
	3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>		3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>
	<br>		<br>

Research Questions - Reference page

2010-09-06T14:27:03Z

Future of Innovation Main Page

2010-09-06T12:29:00Z

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	<h2>Scenarios</h2>		<h2>Scenarios</h2>
	''Big picture questions:'' <br>		''Big picture questions:'' <br>
-	1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no) ~~<br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|400px\|right]]~~	+	1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no)
-	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br>	+	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br><br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|400px\|right]]
	3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>		3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>
	<br>		<br>

Scenario 2- The power of the crowds

2010-09-06T12:18:55Z

Scenario 2- The power of the crowds

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	Today all pieces of technology are what we used to call in the past “user friendly”. We managed in the 2020s to make technology adapt to people’s needs rather than the other way around. In the previous times we had user manuals for software programs, appliances and other different sort of electronics. Nowadays everything, and I mean everything! is intuitive. If it would be to choose three words to define today’s world, those would be ''“standardization”'', ''“simplicity”'' and'' “aggregation”''. <br><br>		Today all pieces of technology are what we used to call in the past “user friendly”. We managed in the 2020s to make technology adapt to people’s needs rather than the other way around. In the previous times we had user manuals for software programs, appliances and other different sort of electronics. Nowadays everything, and I mean everything! is intuitive. If it would be to choose three words to define today’s world, those would be ''“standardization”'', ''“simplicity”'' and'' “aggregation”''. <br><br>

-	What pushed us towards here is however the standardization of cloud computing. This step ~~cupeled~~ with the pressure coming from limited resources also open the door towards the standardization of different sort of widgets (mobile devices). These two events harnessed humans capabilities of communication in groups. In 2010 project managers were saying that if you bring some more IT engineers in the last phase of a project with a close by dead line - the only sure result is that you’ll exceed the dead line. Bigger groups were not equivalent with better and faster work. Because groups did not have the ability to take advantage of their collective intelligence (see research answers). Nowadays the tools we managed to create starting 2020 allow us to maximize the collective intelligence of a group - no matter how big.<br><br>	+	What pushed us towards here is however the standardization of cloud computing. This step coupled with the pressure coming from limited resources also open the door towards the standardization of different sort of widgets (mobile devices). These two events harnessed humans capabilities of communication in groups. In 2010 project managers were saying that if you bring some more IT engineers in the last phase of a project with a close by dead line - the only sure result is that you’ll exceed the dead line. Bigger groups were not equivalent with better and faster work. Because groups did not have the ability to take advantage of their collective intelligence (see research answers). Nowadays the tools we managed to create starting 2020 allow us to maximize the collective intelligence of a group - no matter how big.<br><br>
	All tools interconnected enabled users to communicate on-line just as easy as they were doing it off-line. The very famous theory from the 21st century regarding “6 degrees of separation” is not available anymore. Almost everybody is one click away.<br><br>		All tools interconnected enabled users to communicate on-line just as easy as they were doing it off-line. The very famous theory from the 21st century regarding “6 degrees of separation” is not available anymore. Almost everybody is one click away.<br><br>
	This interconnectivity increased as mentioned the power of users and the way the communicate not just between each-other but the way they communicate with companies. More precisely both private communication and business communication changed. These changes offered more power than before to the demand side of the systems. The demand part - is more able than ever to express their desires.Desiring a product and having no producer to fulfill your need is an exception. The reason of this is that this new communication power allows one the 100 users from Germany who desire gold made bottles to get in touch with the 200 people in Japan with the same desire and with the 50 in Finland and so on. At this point what before was a nisch desire - became, because of this enormous mass communication enabled power, a market purriet. Consumers have the power to dictate! <br><br>		This interconnectivity increased as mentioned the power of users and the way the communicate not just between each-other but the way they communicate with companies. More precisely both private communication and business communication changed. These changes offered more power than before to the demand side of the systems. The demand part - is more able than ever to express their desires.Desiring a product and having no producer to fulfill your need is an exception. The reason of this is that this new communication power allows one the 100 users from Germany who desire gold made bottles to get in touch with the 200 people in Japan with the same desire and with the 50 in Finland and so on. At this point what before was a nisch desire - became, because of this enormous mass communication enabled power, a market purriet. Consumers have the power to dictate! <br><br>

Future of Innovation Main Page

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	==Road Map towards the Scenarios==		==Road Map towards the Scenarios==
-	<h3>Focal Question</h3>	+	[[File:Whatisscenarios.jpg\|330px\|left]]<h3>Focal Question</h3>
	<ul>		<ul>
	<li>The future of Company Innovation in 2030		<li>The future of Company Innovation in 2030
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	Yes - Innovation for he Greater Good <br>		Yes - Innovation for he Greater Good <br>
	*In the connected world, will people organise themselves into groups with collective purpose? (yes/no) <br>		*In the connected world, will people organise themselves into groups with collective purpose? (yes/no) <br>
-	Yes - ~~Connected Convergence~~ <br>	+	Yes - The power of the crowd <br>
-	*Will ~~brand power have value~~? <br>	+	* Will companies adopt and establish an effective system for open innovation? <br>
-	Yes - Open ~~Brewopolies~~ <br>	+	Yes - Open Big Brand World <br>
		+	No - Empire with Walls<br>

	<h3>Scenario Stories</h3>		<h3>Scenario Stories</h3>
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	* 2010 Innovation Insanity - a Trend Watching briefing report [http://trendwatching.com/trends/innovationinsanity/]		* 2010 Innovation Insanity - a Trend Watching briefing report [http://trendwatching.com/trends/innovationinsanity/]
	* The ergonomics of innovation - [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/The_ergonomics_of_innovation_2197]		* The ergonomics of innovation - [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/The_ergonomics_of_innovation_2197]
		+	* Succeeding at open-source innovation: An interview with Mozilla’s Mitchell Baker [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/Succeeding_at_open-source_innovation__An_interview_with_Mozillas_Mitchell_Baker_2098]

	<h3>Want to know even more about scenarios? </h3>		<h3>Want to know even more about scenarios? </h3>

Scenario 2- The power of the crowds

2010-09-06T10:00:30Z

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	[[File:Networks.jpg]]<br>		[[File:Networks.jpg]]<br>
	Corporate ventures, partnership and open innovation are the main tools companies use to implement innovation. The Google 2010 innovation style is of no use for companies. Employees need to spend time in implementing perfectly instead of creating new ideas.<br><br>		Corporate ventures, partnership and open innovation are the main tools companies use to implement innovation. The Google 2010 innovation style is of no use for companies. Employees need to spend time in implementing perfectly instead of creating new ideas.<br><br>
		+
		+	[[Future of Innovation Main Page]]

Future of Innovation Main Page

2010-09-06T09:59:38Z

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-	1. ~~Sonal -~~ [[What are the types of innovation?]]<br>	+	1. [[What are the types of innovation?]]<br>
-	2. ~~Rosy -~~ [[What are the major obstacles to innovation in a company]]<br>	+	2. [[What are the major obstacles to innovation in a company]]<br>
-	3. ~~Rosy -~~ [[How do compliances and regulations affect innovation]]<br>	+	3. [[How do compliances and regulations affect innovation]]<br>
	4. [[How failure in innovation affect the future of innovation in a company]]<br>		4. [[How failure in innovation affect the future of innovation in a company]]<br>
-	5. ~~Sonal -~~ [[What generates innovation in different industries]]<br>	+	5. [[What generates innovation in different industries]]<br>
	6. [[What are advantages and disadvantages of open sourcing/ open innovation]] <br>		6. [[What are advantages and disadvantages of open sourcing/ open innovation]] <br>
-	7. ~~Eghe -~~ [[Close Innovation - advantages and disadvantages]]<br>	+	7. [[Close Innovation - advantages and disadvantages]]<br>
-	8. ~~Sonal -~~ [[What are current business models most successful in fostering innovation]]<br>	+	8. [[What are current business models most successful in fostering innovation]]<br>
-	9. ~~Alex -~~ [[What are emerging trends in big companies regarding next generation innovation models]] <br>	+	9. [[What are emerging trends in big companies regarding next generation innovation models]] <br>
-	10.~~Sally -~~ [[To what extent do countries prioritize innovation in their national agenda?]]<br>	+	10.[[To what extent do countries prioritize innovation in their national agenda?]]<br>
-	11.~~Sally -~~ [[How will the current crises move the innovation trends?]]<br>	+	11.[[How will the current crises move the innovation trends?]]<br>
-	12. ~~Sally -~~ [[What triggers the step change in innovation process in companies]] <br>	+	12.[[What triggers the step change in innovation process in companies]] <br>
-	13. ~~Alex -~~ [[How are the collaborative tool influencing innovation today?]]<br>	+	13.[[How are the collaborative tool influencing innovation today?]]<br>
-	14. ~~Alex -~~ [[How is corporate leadership shaping innovation]] <br>	+	14.[[How is corporate leadership shaping innovation]] <br>
-	15. ~~Alex-~~ [[How is innovation being done in Japan]]<br>	+	15. [[How is innovation being done in Japan]]<br>
-	16. ~~Eghe -~~ [[How are the emerging markets conducting innovation]]<br>	+	16. [[How are the emerging markets conducting innovation]]<br>
-	17. ~~Eghe -~~ [[To what extent are the developed conutries supporting the innovation in the emerging economies]]<br>	+	17. [[To what extent are the developed conutries supporting the innovation in the emerging economies]]<br>
-	18. ~~Sally -~~ [[To what extent are the companies employing people based on their potential for creativity]] <br>	+	18. [[To what extent are the companies employing people based on their potential for creativity]] <br>
-	19. ~~Sonal -~~ [[What are the barriers for companies to adopt susitanability in the corporate strategy]] <br>	+	19. [[What are the barriers for companies to adopt susitanability in the corporate strategy]] <br>
-	20. ~~Eghe -~~ [[Is innovation as expensive as it is stated to be]]<br>	+	20. [[Is innovation as expensive as it is stated to be]]<br>
	21. [[Which types of projects/business future entrepreneurs will do?]] <br>		21. [[Which types of projects/business future entrepreneurs will do?]] <br>
	22. [[What % of investment will EU and government raise?]] <br>		22. [[What % of investment will EU and government raise?]] <br>
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	24. [[What extend will open source develop to?]] <br>		24. [[What extend will open source develop to?]] <br>
	25. [[What impact will generate from most innovative corporations??]] <br>		25. [[What impact will generate from most innovative corporations??]] <br>
-	25. ~~Alex -~~ [[Innovation from developing countries?]] <br>	+	25. [[Innovation from developing countries?]] <br>
-	26. ~~Alex -~~ [[Collective Intelligence]] <br>	+	26. [[Collective Intelligence]] <br>
-	27. ~~Alex -~~ [[Cloud Computing]] <br>	+	27. [[Cloud Computing]] <br>

	[[Future of Innovation Main Page]]		[[Future of Innovation Main Page]]

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	What pushed us towards here is however the standardization of cloud computing. This step coupled with the pressure coming from limited resources also open the door towards the standardization of different sort of widgets (mobile devices). These two events harnessed humans capabilities of communication in groups. In 2010 project managers were saying that if you bring some more IT engineers in the last phase of a project with a close by dead line - the only sure result is that you’ll exceed the dead line. Bigger groups were not equivalent with better and faster work. Because groups did not have the ability to take advantage of their collective intelligence (see research answers). Nowadays the tools we managed to create starting 2020 allow us to maximize the collective intelligence of a group - no matter how big.<br><br>		What pushed us towards here is however the standardization of cloud computing. This step coupled with the pressure coming from limited resources also open the door towards the standardization of different sort of widgets (mobile devices). These two events harnessed humans capabilities of communication in groups. In 2010 project managers were saying that if you bring some more IT engineers in the last phase of a project with a close by dead line - the only sure result is that you’ll exceed the dead line. Bigger groups were not equivalent with better and faster work. Because groups did not have the ability to take advantage of their collective intelligence (see research answers). Nowadays the tools we managed to create starting 2020 allow us to maximize the collective intelligence of a group - no matter how big.<br><br>
-	All tools interconnected enabled users to communicate on-line just as easy as they were doing it off-line. The very famous theory from the 21st century regarding “6 degrees of separation” is not available anymore. Almost everybody is one click away.<br><br>	+	All tools interconnected enabled users to communicate on-line just as easy as they were doing it off-line. The very famous theory from the 21st century regarding “6 degrees of separation” is not available anymore. [[File:customers.jpg\|600px\|left\|]] <br><br> Almost everybody is one click away.<br><br>
	This interconnectivity increased as mentioned the power of users and the way the communicate not just between each-other but the way they communicate with companies. More precisely both private communication and business communication changed. These changes offered more power than before to the demand side of the systems. The demand part - is more able than ever to express their desires.Desiring a product and having no producer to fulfill your need is an exception. The reason of this is that this new communication power allows one the 100 users from Germany who desire gold made bottles to get in touch with the 200 people in Japan with the same desire and with the 50 in Finland and so on. At this point what before was a nisch desire - became, because of this enormous mass communication enabled power, a market purriet. Consumers have the power to dictate! <br><br>		This interconnectivity increased as mentioned the power of users and the way the communicate not just between each-other but the way they communicate with companies. More precisely both private communication and business communication changed. These changes offered more power than before to the demand side of the systems. The demand part - is more able than ever to express their desires.Desiring a product and having no producer to fulfill your need is an exception. The reason of this is that this new communication power allows one the 100 users from Germany who desire gold made bottles to get in touch with the 200 people in Japan with the same desire and with the 50 in Finland and so on. At this point what before was a nisch desire - became, because of this enormous mass communication enabled power, a market purriet. Consumers have the power to dictate! <br><br>
-
-	~~[[File:customers.jpg]]<br>~~
-
	At this point in time companies do not need to make market research anymore to find out what consumers wish for. They are able to send the message by themselves. Given this change, companies needed to change business models. The fastest companies in grabbing what markets desire and making those reality - those are the winners. Therefore nowadays the companies need to focus more than ever on the implementation side of innovations and less on the supply side of new ideas - at least when it comes for new products or services. New ideas come from everywhere and the digital tools allows companies to easily filter the valuable ones from the less valuable. <font color="green"> Having the gold idea is not the competitive advantage anymore. Being fast at implementation is the key. </font> <br><br>		At this point in time companies do not need to make market research anymore to find out what consumers wish for. They are able to send the message by themselves. Given this change, companies needed to change business models. The fastest companies in grabbing what markets desire and making those reality - those are the winners. Therefore nowadays the companies need to focus more than ever on the implementation side of innovations and less on the supply side of new ideas - at least when it comes for new products or services. New ideas come from everywhere and the digital tools allows companies to easily filter the valuable ones from the less valuable. <font color="green"> Having the gold idea is not the competitive advantage anymore. Being fast at implementation is the key. </font> <br><br>

	==2010 - 2015==		==2010 - 2015==
-	Companies discover that they cannot manage the idea generation process. Plenty od surveys (McKinsey, IBM CEO) indicate that most companies believe that innovation performance would improve with a better pipeline of big ideas (57%), yet only a third of these managers thought they had a good balance between idea generation and effective execution. The ideas trap is alive and well!	+	[[File:Innovation_tactics_in_2010.jpg\|400px\|right\|]] <br><br>Companies discover that they cannot manage the idea generation process. Plenty od surveys (McKinsey, IBM CEO) indicate that most companies believe that innovation performance would improve with a better pipeline of big ideas (57%), yet only a third of these managers thought they had a good balance between idea generation and effective execution. The ideas trap is alive and well!
	Whatsmore companies were not just yet formalizing the innovation process. Most enterprise did not have a formal innovation process and at that time only a third of market players were able to say that they had their innovation initiatives aligned with strategy at the business or corporate level.<br><br>		Whatsmore companies were not just yet formalizing the innovation process. Most enterprise did not have a formal innovation process and at that time only a third of market players were able to say that they had their innovation initiatives aligned with strategy at the business or corporate level.<br><br>
	More and more companies realize that good ideas upon which competitor capitalized, were once in their baskets also, but everybody inside their company was busy doing something else: the tasks from their job description. For this reason more market players started putting more pressure on tracking opportunities and equally on implementing those. The “game changer” project which started at Shell was to be seen in an increasing number of companies - bigger and smaller once. <br>		More and more companies realize that good ideas upon which competitor capitalized, were once in their baskets also, but everybody inside their company was busy doing something else: the tasks from their job description. For this reason more market players started putting more pressure on tracking opportunities and equally on implementing those. The “game changer” project which started at Shell was to be seen in an increasing number of companies - bigger and smaller once. <br>
-	~~[[File:Innovation_tactics_in_2010.jpg]]<br><br>~~

	==2015 - 2020==		==2015 - 2020==
-	This is the time slot when Interoperability on the Web and standardization of software widgets was achieved. The standardization of widgets basically allowed everyone to write widgets, and for those widgets to work on all our phones and all OS. <br><br>	+	This is the time slot when Interoperability on the Web and standardization of software widgets was achieved. The standardization of widgets basically allowed everyone to write widgets, and for those widgets to work on all our phones and all OS. <br><br>[[File:connected.gif\|300px\|right\|]]<br><br>
	Instead of working on widget standards that break the Web, people standardised a fully Web-compatible Mobile 2.0 architecture that delivered the same rich, personal functionality, but added back the seamless mashability of ever-changing people and their ever-changing stuff.<br><br>		Instead of working on widget standards that break the Web, people standardised a fully Web-compatible Mobile 2.0 architecture that delivered the same rich, personal functionality, but added back the seamless mashability of ever-changing people and their ever-changing stuff.<br><br>
	What happened is that the U-Web project became reality. What seemed like a dream in 2010 was finally pushed by a bunch of smart engineers from Boston. The U-Web has parallels (and considerable compatibility) with the Web.<br><br>		What happened is that the U-Web project became reality. What seemed like a dream in 2010 was finally pushed by a bunch of smart engineers from Boston. The U-Web has parallels (and considerable compatibility) with the Web.<br><br>
-	~~[[File:connected.gif]]<br><br>~~
	Like the Web, the U-Web was based on open standards, meaning that all the above functionality could have been implemented by many separate groups of developers. It allowed anyone to join in and offered interactive content - an unlimited ecosystem of mashups. Specifically, the U-Web was conceived with an open protocol and notation for peer-to-peer multicast data updates, rather than the Web's client-server document publishing.<br><br>		Like the Web, the U-Web was based on open standards, meaning that all the above functionality could have been implemented by many separate groups of developers. It allowed anyone to join in and offered interactive content - an unlimited ecosystem of mashups. Specifically, the U-Web was conceived with an open protocol and notation for peer-to-peer multicast data updates, rather than the Web's client-server document publishing.<br><br>

	==2020 - 2025==		==2020 - 2025==
-	Cloud Computing Interoperability Manifesto which started in 2010 finally became successful The big players CCIF, CloudCamp, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Microsoft and the IEEE-ISTO finally united. At the beginning of the 20s the companies agreed on a shared goal to promote use and awareness of open and interoperable cloud computing. They agreed to enable participants, from individuals and companies, both large and small, to be able to contribute to and use the results of broad community collaboration.~~<br><br>~~	+	[[File:cloud.jpg\|300px\|right\|]]<br><br>Cloud Computing Interoperability Manifesto which started in 2010 finally became successful The big players CCIF, CloudCamp, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Microsoft and the IEEE-ISTO finally united. At the beginning of the 20s the companies agreed on a shared goal to promote use and awareness of open and interoperable cloud computing. They agreed to enable participants, from individuals and companies, both large and small, to be able to contribute to and use the results of broad community collaboration.<br><br>
-	~~[[File:cloud.jpg]]~~<br><br>	+
	Standardization increased and accelerated the adoption of cloud computing as users had a wider range of choices in cloud without vendor lock-in, portability and ability to use the cloud services provided by multiple vendors. Standardization also provided business opportunities to users to choose and use services provided by many different cloud vendors based on various criteria. On the other hand it helped vendors to provide additional higher level services like orchestration, apart from normal cloud services needed by the users. Standardization thus paved the way towards realizing the true potential/ benefits of cloud computing. <br><br>		Standardization increased and accelerated the adoption of cloud computing as users had a wider range of choices in cloud without vendor lock-in, portability and ability to use the cloud services provided by multiple vendors. Standardization also provided business opportunities to users to choose and use services provided by many different cloud vendors based on various criteria. On the other hand it helped vendors to provide additional higher level services like orchestration, apart from normal cloud services needed by the users. Standardization thus paved the way towards realizing the true potential/ benefits of cloud computing. <br><br>
	==2025 - 2030==		==2025 - 2030==
	The voice of the “desires-holders” will be stronger. They will shout out their desires and the companies who want to have access to their pockets must be fast in fulfilling those wishes. Companies discovered that alone, as standalone businesses they cannot be fast enough. <br><br>		The voice of the “desires-holders” will be stronger. They will shout out their desires and the companies who want to have access to their pockets must be fast in fulfilling those wishes. Companies discovered that alone, as standalone businesses they cannot be fast enough. <br><br>
	<i><b><font color="green">Old ways dye even faster than before =><br>		<i><b><font color="green">Old ways dye even faster than before =><br>
-	companies need to learn to be FAST</font></b></i><br><br>	+	companies need to learn to be FAST</font></b></i><br>[[File:Networks.jpg\|600px\|left\|]]<br>
	For these reason if ideas generation can be managed by each company the implementation part must be done not alone. This is how the new corporation got born - which is a network of old corporations. In 2010 companies had issues with implementation inside their companies only (see 2010-2015), however nowadays companies must be fast in learning aggregated implementation of innovation. The winers are the ones who learn it the fastest. <br><br>		For these reason if ideas generation can be managed by each company the implementation part must be done not alone. This is how the new corporation got born - which is a network of old corporations. In 2010 companies had issues with implementation inside their companies only (see 2010-2015), however nowadays companies must be fast in learning aggregated implementation of innovation. The winers are the ones who learn it the fastest. <br><br>
-	~~[[File:Networks.jpg]]<br>~~
	Corporate ventures, partnership and open innovation are the main tools companies use to implement innovation. The Google 2010 innovation style is of no use for companies. Employees need to spend time in implementing perfectly instead of creating new ideas.<br><br>		Corporate ventures, partnership and open innovation are the main tools companies use to implement innovation. The Google 2010 innovation style is of no use for companies. Employees need to spend time in implementing perfectly instead of creating new ideas.<br><br>

	[[Future of Innovation Main Page]]		[[Future of Innovation Main Page]]

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	==Project Overview==		==Project Overview==
	This project is about defining how innovation 2.0 will look like. In other words what is the future of innovation.		This project is about defining how innovation 2.0 will look like. In other words what is the future of innovation.
-	The time span we chose is 20 years from now. Therefore the scenarios are define for the year 2030.	+	The time span we chose is 20 years from now. Therefore the scenarios are define for the year 2030.[[File:innovation.jpeg\|300px\|right]]
-	The team received this challenge from Mr Russ Conser - Coordinator of the Game Changer Department from Shell.~~[[File:innovation.jpeg\|300px\|right]]~~	+	The team received this challenge from Mr Russ Conser - Coordinator of the Game Changer Department from Shell.
	If you want to know more about Mr Conser and Game Changer, please click [http://earthsky.org/energy/russ-conser-shells-gamechanger-program-sponsors-entrepreneurs]		If you want to know more about Mr Conser and Game Changer, please click [http://earthsky.org/energy/russ-conser-shells-gamechanger-program-sponsors-entrepreneurs]

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	<h2>Scenarios</h2>		<h2>Scenarios</h2>
	''Big picture questions:'' <br>		''Big picture questions:'' <br>
-	1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no) <br>	+	1. Will companies be able to overcome social hurdles, nuture employee dynamics and built organisational capability to drive effective innovation in the company? (yes/no) <br>[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|400px\|right]]
	2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br>		2. Will emerging markets be the tipping point of geo-economic innovation centres on the globe? (yes/no) <br>
	3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>		3. In the open source or free innovation world, how is innovation facilitated? (social media/collaborative) <br>
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	''Scenario tree decision point questions:'' <br>		''Scenario tree decision point questions:'' <br>
	*Will resource depletion, climate change and population trends trigger a significant organised regional or transnational innovation intervention? <br>		*Will resource depletion, climate change and population trends trigger a significant organised regional or transnational innovation intervention? <br>
-	Yes - Innovation for he Greater Good <br>~~[[File:Innovation_scenarios.jpg\|300px\|right]]~~	+	Yes - Innovation for he Greater Good <br>
	*In the connected world, will people organise themselves into groups with collective purpose? (yes/no) <br>		*In the connected world, will people organise themselves into groups with collective purpose? (yes/no) <br>
	Yes - Connected Convergence <br>		Yes - Connected Convergence <br>
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	* Innovation and commercialization, 2010: McKinsey Global Survey results [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation]		* Innovation and commercialization, 2010: McKinsey Global Survey results [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation]
	* 2010 Innovation Insanity - a Trend Watching briefing report [http://trendwatching.com/trends/innovationinsanity/]		* 2010 Innovation Insanity - a Trend Watching briefing report [http://trendwatching.com/trends/innovationinsanity/]
		+	* The ergonomics of innovation - [https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Strategy/Innovation/The_ergonomics_of_innovation_2197]

	<h3>Want to know even more about scenarios? </h3>		<h3>Want to know even more about scenarios? </h3>